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China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

usip.org

11–20 of 204 posts

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#11
post #2

There is an institute of peace in US ? It hasn't been active in the last 80 years. As G. Orwell said: war is peace.

80? It has been about that long since the last official declaration of war by the United States, however... https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/US...

Formal declarations of war are so early and mid 20th century...

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#12

China would very much prefer that Taiwan ask to reunite with the mainland. Forcing them back one day might be in the cards but setting the conditions to where Taiwan sees being part of China as being the better option than relying on the United States for its safety is what China would like to happen. Finding ways to drive wedges between the US and Taiwan is a part of this strategy.

US has no interest in being beholden to TSMC in the long-term. once that dependency is removed the only reason from a realist perspective to support Taiwan is to provoke Chinese violence, which hopefully never happens.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#13

China would very much prefer that Taiwan ask to reunite with the mainland. Forcing them back one day might be in the cards but setting the conditions to where Taiwan sees being part of China as being the better option than relying on the United States for its safety is what China would like to happen. Finding ways to drive wedges between the US and Taiwan is a part of this strategy.

Taiwan might prefer that China ask's to reunite with them? Commit to a free democracy? Didn't think so...

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#15
Interesting, I have not heard of USIP before:

"USIP was established by Congress in 1984 as an independent institution devoted to the nonviolent prevention and mitigation of deadly conflict abroad."

In 2011 they almost lost their funding. Although, with budget of 39mln and 300 staff they are pretty lean operation it seems.

Their staff seem to be mostly active in the Middle East, Africa and East Asia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Institute_of_Pea...

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#17
post #9

The invasion of Taiwan would require a massive amphibious assault across a sea full of hostile submarines. You couldn't hide all the ships required from satellites. And China's economy depends heavily on trade with the west-aligned world.

Russia didn't hide their military buildup, they just lied and gaslit the world via their various disinformation channels into believing that Putin would have to be insane to actually invade.

As it has indeed turned out to be.

It is very worrying to me that China tones down the invasion in their media (if that is indeed true, I don't follow Chinese media myself).

Better to let people know what war really is. Unless you want it.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#19
post #12

China would very much prefer that Taiwan ask to reunite with the mainland. Forcing them back one day might be in the cards but setting the conditions to where Taiwan sees being part of China as being the better option than relying on the United States for its safety is what China would like to happen. Finding ways to drive wedges between the US and Taiwan is a part of this strategy.

US has no interest in being beholden to TSMC in the long-term. once that dependency is removed the only reason from a realist perspective to support Taiwan is to provoke Chinese violence, which hopefully never happens.

Not so, AFAIK. It is equally as much about free trade in the South China Sea.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#20
post #9

The invasion of Taiwan would require a massive amphibious assault across a sea full of hostile submarines. You couldn't hide all the ships required from satellites. And China's economy depends heavily on trade with the west-aligned world.

Russia didn't hide their military buildup, they just lied and gaslit the world via their various disinformation channels into believing that Putin would have to be insane to actually invade.

Yeah he puts these videos on Youtube designed to make him look bad on first blush, but then you think it over and what he responds to crappy questions makes perfect sense, so because it occurs to you the viewer "spontaneously" it makes these thoughts more convincing. But that's a double-bluff you see, in some cases quadruple-bluffs, I think I even saw one sextuple-bluff, even-numbered bluffs.
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