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Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

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Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#331

Post by Lio »

pelasaco wrote: post #228
lolinder wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point, it doesn't look at all like we can practically expect a popular revolt. For me there are two outcomes to target with the sanctions: * Make life unpleasant enough for the oligarchs that they replace Putin with someone less intent on ruining the nice thing they had going. * Handicap Russia's ability to wage war. This includes eliminating their ability to buy supplies and destroying their morale. It's the…

> * Handicap Russia's ability to wage war. This includes eliminating their ability to buy supplies and destroying their morale. But if we still fear the atomic war, he can still threatens Europe with that.

That is a legitimate worry but there’s no counter to it other than reminding Putin that a nuclear attack would cause a massive automated, nuclear counter attack that would destroy him too.

There’s no defence against submarine based warheads; enough will get through.

It’s the reason that NATO isn’t going establish a no fly zone over Ukraine. They know it too.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#332

Post by koonsolo »

CapricornNoble wrote: post #237
skeletal88 wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a colleague from Russia who moved here a few years ago. But.. still he is using talking-points that come from Kremlin's propaganda, like "The US will fight Russia to the last ukrainian" and "I would feel safer here if we weren't in NATO, this makes us a target for Russia" and "You know that it was promised that NATO wouldn't expand?" and "Your country joined the Soviet Union voluntarily". So.. even when some p…

>>>still he is using talking-points that come from Kremlin's propaganda, like "The US will fight Russia to the last ukrainian" That's considered "Russian propaganda"? We've managed to goad Putin into grinding up his conventional military in a large-scale war. We've set the Russian economy back decades. And we've so far pulled off both of these, without any NATO member paying a massive price in blood for it. Russian p…

> I've been really critical of the moves we've made in Europe for the past 10-15 years

So Germany buying gas from Russia, then trying to buy even more gas and then for a large part depending on it. Do you consider that a good or a bad move?

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#333

Post by jacquesm »

jquery wrote: post #312
drakonka wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I apologize in advance for some emotion that'll come out in the rest of this comment, but I feel the need to say it. I wish Russian people would then stop telling me all about how most Russians are against Putin and hate him, and then act completely helpless at the thought of doing anything about it. They are just empty words, then, because they're followed by plenty of excuses for inaction. My grandfather is spendin…

I am with you. If anything I want to turn up the sanctions even more, as I see Putin ramping up the war crimes he’s committing in Ukraine out of frustration at the resistance there.

I fully expect him to destroy it completely if he can't seize it and I am scared shitless of what could very well be the first deployment of nuclear weapons on the European continent, the nuking of Kyiv. I would definitely not put it past Putin and I hope that before we get to that that there will be a palace revolt in Russia because if they just keep following orders there all bets are quite literally off.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#334

Post by hutzlibu »

pelasaco wrote: post #246
croes wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Nazis were stopped from outside and the USSR by people from it's government because of it's economic downfall.

but do we all agree that the World history would be different if the ordinary german people would oppose the concentration camps and genocide? The ordinary russian people are IMO in the same position right now. They. Have. To stop. Putin!

So you would have been in favor of punishing german jews like Einstein, for getting out and not staying to change the system from within?

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#335

Post by therusskiy »

drakonka wrote: post #310
therusskiy wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it may be selfish, but I don't want to sit in prison and be beaten by police. If you are against Putin, why haven't you supported Russians in 2019 when they took to streets against him? Came to our country with Molotovs? Or was it too far away from you? Everybody was just "concerned" by it and now you and me are paying the pric, because since then it's even harder for us to organize and do anything about this crazy s…

That's an interesting sentiment, to ask people who aren't Russian and do not live in Russia to come protest on your behalf to overthrow your dictatorship. Do you think foreigners coming into Russia to protest (or violently riot, as you seem to be suggesting) would do the trick? That's a legitimate question - would Russians take kindly do that kind of initiative? Many Russian people, even the ones claiming that most o…

"Black lives matter" and "Moscow election protests" happened around the same time. I have nothing against BLM, but I can say that many Russians got plenty upset, that all countries had huge protests around the world (even New Zealand) to support BLM, while Russian protests were completely ignored by the international community. Nobody is asking to come to Russia, but we've been alone in our fight with Putin all along, the "West" haven't tried to help us fight his propaganda. I guess he is our problem now, but it's a little too late.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#336

Post by lowkey »

traceroute66 wrote: post #270
bsedlm wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a lot of people seem ok with punishing Russian individuals for the actions of the government. maybe these people have grown in better functioning democracies (unlike Russia or my own country) so they act as if the people were well represented by their governments; unlike reality for most countries with a serious corruption problem.

> a lot of people seem ok with punishing Russian individuals for the actions of the government. Its easy to say that but you have to look at the bigger picture. It's easy to say "just punish the government / the oligarchs", but as most Westerners know, these people have become extraordinarily adept at hiding their money and distributing their assets. So it is very difficult indeed to target them per-se, hence you nee…

I feel like you are conveniently skipping the part where millions of ordinary Russians are being economically devastated by broad brush sanctions that punish the poor and middle class Russians who are innocent of war crimes, simply because they were unfortunate to be born in the wrong country and they may justifiably be afraid for their lives if they protest.

For those who say beat the war drums, punish them all, just so we can make it harder on the authoritarians and oligarchs - are you ready to enlist in the Ukraine militia or is that too much to ask?

It seems a little too facile to be willing to put others lives on the line when you are not willing to risk your own.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#337

Post by risyachka »

bsedlm wrote: post #11
therusskiy wrote: post #6

I managed to escape the country yesterday, had to flight to Egypt of all places, because ALL (even business) tickets were sold out. The recent news is that starting March 6 all international flights are suspended, the trap has closed. The disheartening thing is that even if you never supported Putin, other countries treat you as enemy. I am at Georgia now and banks refuse to open bank accounts to Russians, and I need…

a lot of people seem ok with punishing Russian individuals for the actions of the government. maybe these people have grown in better functioning democracies (unlike Russia or my own country) so they act as if the people were well represented by their governments; unlike reality for most countries with a serious corruption problem.

Have you seen any major rebellions in Russia in the last decade? No.

Here is a kicker - there were few coups even in North Korea.

So russians are fine with regime. And even though actions speak louder than words, most people even didn't SPEAK against it until few days ago.

So unless you openly spoke against putin and regime for years, you were part of the problem.

Also, in Ukraine people go against armed forces with bare hands on protests and risk being KILLED. In russia they are afraid to protest to get 15 day jail time? Sorry, no excuse here either.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#338

Post by jacquesm »

jquery wrote: post #327
formvoltron wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are already young people brave enough to protest with just 2000 people protesting. I'm talking about a million people standing outside and walking towards the Red Square, shaking their keys. If Russians cannot manage this, then I do not have sympathy whatsoever.

I saw a picture of a Russian mall from yesterday, lots of people out and about shopping like nothing is amiss. So far the Russian protests are pretty anemic (I mean in numbers, not in passion, and I greatly respect those currently protesting), it seems most Russians are a lot more concerned with the status quo, and that life is still pretty comfortable for them while bombs rain down on Ukrainian civilians. There’s so…

This is compounded by the fact that the troops Russia has sent are predominantly from the very far East of Russia and are not directly related to the Russian cosmopolitans from the West. SOP for the Russians in the last wars.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#339

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

daenz wrote: post #265
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am confused by your stance. On one hand I do agree that there is a lot of propaganda on all sides, so one should be especially critical about data sources. On the other hand, I think then that using Google Trends data for this is a pretty excellent source for this data, and a prime example of something that would be difficult to game. It's publicly available, so anyone can verify it. I guess a true conspiracist mig…

At the time of my post, I was unable to verify the Google Trends searches (I was using it incorrectly, and have verified it, see other comments). My main point about using the Trends data is that if there are so many more clearly substantive sources (videos, interviews, history), why lean mainly on Google Trends.

Google Trends is actually a much better data source for this kind of thing, precisely because it's so difficult to game. The examples you give (videos, interviews, history) are trivial to use to give a biased view - just show only the videos that back your viewpoint, for example. It's easy to find a hundred videos on YouTube with "proof" the Earth is flat.

The other thing that is great about Google Trends data is that is essentially a window into "things people are actually searching for when they think nobody is looking." Yes, I realize the irony in that every Google click is tracked, but you'll get much more "honest" results looking at Google Trends data vs. plain interviews. For example, the country with the highest volume of "gay porn" searches per capita is Kenya, a country that is pretty vehemently anti-gay. The reasoning behind that is open to interpretation (I suspect many people are just genuinely curious given images of gay relationships in the media are so much less acceptable there), but for a society that basically deems gay sex extremely deviant, there sure are a lot of folks interested in what it looks like.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#340

Post by tiahura »

samstave wrote: post #285
tiahura wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU needs to do something about Cyprus.

Do ypu recall when RUssian oligarch assets were seized in Cyprus as it was their 'carribean' money laundering banking system. Cyprus is literally the hoard of Russian oligarchs, yet I am sure they have been divesting from Cyprus to other locales.. of which were exposed in Panama Papers.. "the bank of switzerland is seizing accounts" (lit just reported n NPR) --- the author of the book on klepto is talking about laund…

Agreed, but my understanding is that Cyprus also sells EU citizenship.
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