Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends • Hacker News Board

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#101

Post by darkarmani » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 4:41 PM UTC

therusskiy wrote: post #6

I managed to escape the country yesterday, had to flight to Egypt of all places, because ALL (even business) tickets were sold out. The recent news is that starting March 6 all international flights are suspended, the trap has closed. The disheartening thing is that even if you never supported Putin, other countries treat you as enemy. I am at Georgia now and banks refuse to open bank accounts to Russians, and I need…

I'm so sorry you are going through this. Good luck. I hope you are able to get settled safely.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#102

Post by skeletal88 » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 4:41 PM UTC

daenz wrote: post #2

This may very well be true, but I'm having trouble believing anything, from anyone, about the conflict. There is so much propaganda around the subject, that unless you are personally connected to an official source, I believe you can't know with any reasonable certainty. The primary source for this story appears to be public Google Trends data.

I live in Estonia. If I see news reports where they interview people from the border guard who say that there are more border crossings than usual, owner of coach company says that they have added more trips to St. Petersburg and number of russians traveling has increased, also Russian-owned bus companies have added more trips to Estonia, where busses leaving here are alomst empty but packed full of travelers when leaving St. Petersburg. Also bus companies have said that more people travel with pets or large luggage.

Are they all lying?

https://news.err.ee/1608521780/passenger-numbers-on-lux-expr...

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#103

Post by chrisweekly » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 4:42 PM UTC

mkl95 wrote: post #90

There's nothing surprising about it. There is at least one recent, well documented case of mass emigration due to the economic collapse of an authoritarian regime. Millions of people have left Venezuela since the late 2000s [1]. Considering Russia is barely richer than Spain whilst having 3x the population and the fact it's about to get much worse, I would expect millions of Russians to leave in the next few years. […

Agreed.

tiny nitpick: immigration -> emigration

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#104

Post by tasha0663 » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 4:42 PM UTC

formvoltron wrote: post #60

therusskiy wrote: post #6

I managed to escape the country yesterday, had to flight to Egypt of all places, because ALL (even business) tickets were sold out. The recent news is that starting March 6 all international flights are suspended, the trap has closed. The disheartening thing is that even if you never supported Putin, other countries treat you as enemy. I am at Georgia now and banks refuse to open bank accounts to Russians, and I need…

Quoted post unavailable.

This attitude doesn't square with the dense bureaucracy, unavoidable surveillance, and complete monopoly on violence that modern nations hold. Especially in a place like Russia, where "organizing" is nearly impossible because opposition leaders have a bad habit of accidentally eating plutonium and nerve agents.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#105

Post by fireflymetavrse » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 4:42 PM UTC

formvoltron wrote: post #60

therusskiy wrote: post #6

I managed to escape the country yesterday, had to flight to Egypt of all places, because ALL (even business) tickets were sold out. The recent news is that starting March 6 all international flights are suspended, the trap has closed. The disheartening thing is that even if you never supported Putin, other countries treat you as enemy. I am at Georgia now and banks refuse to open bank accounts to Russians, and I need…

Quoted post unavailable.

>they are afraid to stand up to their own government

I think you are not aware on how authoritarian regimes work and relates to those trying to oppose.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#106

Post by mumblemumble » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 4:42 PM UTC

daenz wrote: post #36

berberous wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I generally agree with you for most stories and facts about the war, but this one is just obvious. The ruble has declined and the Russian stock market has been closed all week. Russia has been sanctioned. Russia is sending people to fight in a war. There are rumors (whether true or not) that Russia is planning to close borders, impose martial law, etc. Those are all verifiable facts. In the face of the above, of cour…

If it was clearly obvious, then why wouldn't the Economist use these other sources directly, instead of leaning so heavily on Google Trends data? It's a flimsy way to present truth.

Because those things don't really directly support the article's lede the way the google trends results do. They aren't a demonstration that there is a trend; they're ancillary information explaining why that trend might be happening.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#107

Post by formvoltron » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 4:42 PM UTC

therusskiy wrote: post #78

formvoltron wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

try blaming people born in North Korea, maybe if they are sanctioned and hated more they stop "voting" for kim jong un?

See what I mean. Now you are comparing your situation to North Korea. I doubt you have it as hard as that. Just gather people together, go the central square, and shake keys.

They don't have enough jails to hold everyone.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#108

Post by mbesto » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 4:43 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #24

daenz wrote: post #2

This may very well be true, but I'm having trouble believing anything, from anyone, about the conflict. There is so much propaganda around the subject, that unless you are personally connected to an official source, I believe you can't know with any reasonable certainty. The primary source for this story appears to be public Google Trends data.

Except that there is plenty of evidence that this is really the case. Russians are crossing the border in unprecedented numbers, for instance: https://yle.fi/news/3-12345301 Flying is getting harder and harder so while the borders are still open (there is talk of martial law in Russia, which, even though it was just denied does not seem to have much effect on calming things down, in fact the denial seems to have the…

I think you missed the parent's comment.

FTA: "Buses travelling from St. Petersburg to Helsinki, Tallinn and Riga are also fully booked."

How do I prove:

- This is true without actually seeing the data that buses are fully booked

- Yle is a trustworthy media outlet and what they are saying is true

- The Finnish government isn't booking the buses and then telling the media that buses are booked

For the record - I believe that Russians are trying to do exactly what you said and what the article says. I trust this.

However, this is precisely the issue - what outlets do you really trust? Stuff that comes from BBC? CNN? New age "influencers" on YT/TikTok? This is the problem.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#109

Post by darksaints » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 4:43 PM UTC

formvoltron wrote: post #60

therusskiy wrote: post #6

I managed to escape the country yesterday, had to flight to Egypt of all places, because ALL (even business) tickets were sold out. The recent news is that starting March 6 all international flights are suspended, the trap has closed. The disheartening thing is that even if you never supported Putin, other countries treat you as enemy. I am at Georgia now and banks refuse to open bank accounts to Russians, and I need…

Quoted post unavailable.

I believe this as well, but it's not always cut and dry. To take down a government requires organization and cooperation amongst entities. Some regimes, like North Korea, effectively make cooperation and organization impossible. They snuff out the revolution before it ever starts. If there is ever going to be a Russian opposition to Putin that is actually strong enough to take him down, it will likely start in a different country.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#110

Post by marginalia_nu » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 4:43 PM UTC

grey-area wrote: post #87

daenz wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>there is talk of martial law in Russia I want to highlight this, because I think it illustrates my point about propaganda. I dug around for a source on that statement, and this appears the most reliable source[0]. An anonymous EU official picking up on "signs". Again, this also may be totally true, but it's presented in such a flimsy way, how can a reasonable person be expected to believe it at face value? Am I sayi…

Rumours are not propaganda. No you haven't discovered a vast EU-wide conspiracy or someone 'saying the quiet part out loud'. Nobody knows what is going on and naturally there is lots of speculation to fill the void.

Rumors can absolutely be propaganda.