81–90 of 323 posts
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Sadly, it seems more russians are concerned about not getting a BILLY than standing up to Putin.
If spreading “fake news” about Putin could get you locked up for 15 years you might be equally disinclined to protest.
What I'm curious about all the sanctions is what if Russia changes? Say Putin quits or is killed and the replacement withdraws from Ukraine. Are we back on again?
For me the line to cross would be that Russia gives up their nuclear arms. They have shown that they are willing to use these for extortion rather than as a last means of defense, which I think should be enough to cause them to have to give these up.
They say that foreign companies operating in Russia were required by the Putin's government to change their euros for rubles in three days if they want to stand open. Closing is the logical choice.
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I don't like getting into politics, but I believe the current situation is temporary, either will end up with a major political change in Russia or with a new cold war. Whichever the case for the local economy its like hitting the reset button.
Putin is 69 in a country where average age at death is 73. So the most likely scenario is that the status quo remains until he passes away. At which point there would be an opportunity for a clean reset in relations.
That avg expectancy of 73 includes all the people that die young, etc.
"Actuarial tables" is the term you're looking for, if you're curious how long a particular person at a particular age might live.
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
In the US a person who is currently 69 years old will live, on average, for another 17.53 years.
In Russia the average expectancy is a little shorter, but also Putin is not an average person. By all accounts he seems pretty healthy, and obviously he has unlimited access to the best healthcare money can buy.
What's happening in Ukraine is a tragedy, but what's happening in Russia as a result of sanctions is quite tragic in itself.
Currency is in free fall, hundreds of companies closed shops and offices, many will lose their jobs, etc.
This will hit marriages and relationships. Men become depressed and paralyzed when they lose their incomes. So just like in the 90s, the economic collapse will hit women of Russia hard.
The smartest and most beautiful women - aka the ones used to live in abundance who got all the attention, etc will try to leave the country. 'Russian' is now quite a bad word for anyone in Europe, so women will have a hard time finding and maintaining European men (of course any men will take a beautiful woman for sex, but providing for her long term is another thing).
They say war is men protecting their women and children from the invading men. But in this situation there will be Russian women who leave their men for foreign men.
As much as I disagree with Russia's actions and even if the majority of Russians support the war (are afraid of the criminals running the country), I still feel sad for what these families are about to experience this year.
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Sure…but more than likely Russia is about to become thunderdome.
I don't like getting into politics, but I believe the current situation is temporary, either will end up with a major political change in Russia or with a new cold war. Whichever the case for the local economy its like hitting the reset button.
It looks to me like our European leaders are escalating in a specific way that ensures we are locked in a feud with Russia for decades to come, in such a way that we can’t renew relationships even if Putin dies and if they pay war damages (which they won’t be able to pay because of their damaged economy - Ow, sweet irony of 1928…).
I wonder whether we, European people, have an interest into making a 50-years war with Russia, like our leaders are deciding.
Or, in other words, where can I emigrate, from France.
Go visit the homepage of this newspaper. It's crazy, there's no clear reference to war or attacks. This article on Ikea is just an attempt to tell the desperation without breaking the censorship law.
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Provided they are vertically integrated and own the entire supply chain. Otherwise they will find that planes not flying in/out and container ships not delivering will make it hard to import anything at scale. Not that they could pay for goods anyway. Also I suspect China may use its new found leverage to flood the Russian market with their goods.
That's a smart take I have not fully thought through. Beyond just economically, perhaps potential big gains politically by using money & leverage to become the controlling mother that Russia is to Belarus, making russia the dependent & ruled child.
Several nations seem to be setting themselves up for irrelevence by undermining democracy, usually at the behest of powerful groups within the country, but to do so they basically need to pay a bunch of people to tell lies. They've then created a network that external corporations and government actors can take advantage of. If the Russian news suddenly started telling the truth mixed with 30% Chinese propaganda, then to the average Russian that would be noticeably more true than what they are getting now.
Would the presenters tell blatant Chinese lies to decieve their people? Well apart from the chinese bit they obviously do, so you basically hope they're all actually insane true-believers, because if theyre just ordinary Russians spreading obvious BS in return for a decent paycheck then thats an obvious weak point for the nation.
And Russia knows this is viable, as they do it to other nations.
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For me the line to cross would be that Russia gives up their nuclear arms. They have shown that they are willing to use these for extortion rather than as a last means of defense, which I think should be enough to cause them to have to give these up.
Why would they ever give them up? Unless they get so thoroughly routed in a war that they have no choice, it just won't happen because it is the end of sovereignty.