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The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

economist.com

71–80 of 140 posts

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#71

"Bold" action by the politicians and the central banks created much of the current mess. If we'd just cleared the pipes by letting the banks fail, recapitalizing new banks, and basically rebooting the financial system, we'd be much further along. Instead, we got bailouts and crony capitalism and ad hoc intervention, and today the global system is in many ways in worse shape now than in 2008. (Banking is more concentr…

"Bold" action by the politicians and the central banks created much of the current mess. The problem is a lack of boldness. Bold regulation on banks and insurance companies is necessary. If we're going to do bailouts, we had better make sure the same misbehaviors can't happen again. In the U.S., we're fucking up my trying to fix failing institutions in-place. No management changes. No meaningful regulations. Often th…

Herbert Hoover is a bit more complicated than even your more nuanced take on him. He did come to a somewhat activist government in the second half of his term. Of course, his real but somewhat muted response to the Great Depression led FDR to attack him. But from the Right, using populist rhetoric about government debt and wasteful bureaucrats.

Hoover wasn't evil as you point out, but nor was he an ideologue who refused to choose the best policy because of prior beliefs. Believing that story line makes us blind to learning from his failings to better ourselves. To wit, his great vice wasn't lack of compassion or intellectual arrogance; it was simply a... lack of boldness.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#72

"Bold" action by the politicians and the central banks created much of the current mess. If we'd just cleared the pipes by letting the banks fail, recapitalizing new banks, and basically rebooting the financial system, we'd be much further along. Instead, we got bailouts and crony capitalism and ad hoc intervention, and today the global system is in many ways in worse shape now than in 2008. (Banking is more concentr…

"Bold" action by the politicians and the central banks created much of the current mess. The problem is a lack of boldness. Bold regulation on banks and insurance companies is necessary. If we're going to do bailouts, we had better make sure the same misbehaviors can't happen again. In the U.S., we're fucking up my trying to fix failing institutions in-place. No management changes. No meaningful regulations. Often th…

> Bold regulation on banks and insurance companies is necessary.

What about bold regulation on the regulators and the politicians? You remember them - they thought that subprime mortgages were a good idea, that everyone should own a house, so any bank that wouldn't play ball didn't get to play.

You remember Fannie and Freddie - they lied about the fraction of the market that was subprime, so everyone's risk calculations were wrong.

> Often the laws are written by the industry they're intended to police (cf. health insurance).

Actually, they're always written by the relevant industry.

> That's a horrible strategy.

However, like gravity, it's how things are. Any plan that assumes otherwise is doomed.

> This sounds like a quote by Herbert Hoover. Contrary to history's view of him (which is intensely negative) he was a very intelligent and probably a good-hearted man. He, however, believed that there was absolutely nothing government could do to save the economy, and that letting the beginnings of the Great Depression go unchecked was the least evil action. He was wrong.

And, you're completely wrong. Hoover tried stimulus after stimulus; he dramatically increased spending. FDR actually campaigned against the spending and changed course upon taking office.

Both Hoover and FDR believed that the great depression was caused by excess production, so they both tried to restrict it. FDR didn't give up until it became apparent that an "arsenal of democracy" had to actually produce lots of stuff.

This "war on production" is now credited with putting the "Great" in "Great Depression", that is, with making it last as long as it did.

http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/FDR-s-Policies-Prolonge...

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying you're wrong because I don't know but you are over simplifying First you're forgetting those countries don't have state taxes. For example, the top tax rate in California is close to 40% when you combine both State and Federal. Plus you have some cities that have income tax. Second you're forgetting loop holes. Again the point I made above is U.S. citizens paid less in taxes when the U.S. tax rates wer…

The chart says total tax burden so I'm assuming it takes into account state taxes. The one chart indicates an average for the U.S. of around 26%. This would be a 2% increase from what it is today. In a $10 trillion economy this would be a $200 billion tax increase. Given that borrowing rates are so low right now an awful lot of money can be borrowed before the budgetary burden reaches $200 billion in additional annua…

Total tax burden is a vague term. They could easily mean total Federal tax burden since they're comparing countries. This NY Times article pegs the total U.S. Federal tax burden at 20.7% which makes the numbers you quote seem dubious

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/08/how-much-americ...

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#74

"Bold" action by the politicians and the central banks created much of the current mess. If we'd just cleared the pipes by letting the banks fail, recapitalizing new banks, and basically rebooting the financial system, we'd be much further along. Instead, we got bailouts and crony capitalism and ad hoc intervention, and today the global system is in many ways in worse shape now than in 2008. (Banking is more concentr…

"Bold" action by the politicians and the central banks created much of the current mess. The problem is a lack of boldness. Bold regulation on banks and insurance companies is necessary. If we're going to do bailouts, we had better make sure the same misbehaviors can't happen again. In the U.S., we're fucking up my trying to fix failing institutions in-place. No management changes. No meaningful regulations. Often th…

If we're going to do bailouts, we had better make sure the same misbehaviors can't happen again.

We've been bailing out too-big-to(should)-fail, crony corporations ever since Chrysler in 1979. And they die slow deaths regardless of how many taxpayer dollars line their executives' "golden parachutes". Let the strongest survive and the weakest find new careers. That's how you get "management changes".

[Hoover] believed that there was absolutely nothing government could do to save the economy, and that letting the beginnings of the Great Depression go unchecked was the least evil action. He was wrong.

Well, if he believed that, he had a funny way of showing it. Maybe he didn't intervene as much as FDR, but he was a lot closer to FDR than Coolidge: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-08/uoc--hps08190...

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#75
post #4

They almost made it the entire article without throwing in a bit of Both Sides Do It nonsense. "In America the Republicans are guilty of outrageous obstructionism and misleading simplification, while Mr Obama has favoured class warfare over fiscal leadership."

Obama class warfare? No sign of it. I think Obama's a great human being, but he's a essentially a conservative by any sane standard. With the economic stance he holds now, he'd have been a Republican in 1970 (a time in which Republicans were not all horrible).

Wow, as exemplified by this comment, this conversation is getting really inappropriate for hn.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#76
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I really, really want to know how you just 'reboot' the financial system without massive disruption to retail banking or the payments system. There will be massive disruption in any case. It can come in the format of recapitalization (Iceland) or inflation due to inflating their insolvency away (Latin America). > How do you 're'capitalize a new bank? OP meant recapitalize the failed banks. Short version: 1. Fire th…

You honestly think we'll be able to find other people qualified to run the new banks? Maybe, maybe not. But I'd imagine that whoever's running the show right now will easily be able to stay in the picture. It's like being a CEO. Once a CEO of a big corp, always a CEO of a big corp, no matter how poor your track record. Maybe I'm just being cynical here.

Good Lord!! What are you saying?? That because there aren't "qualified" people that we should leave the current criminals there, even though they jeopardized our entire financial system!??!?

There are plenty of people that could have run the banks. Sheila Blair perhaps? I'd be okay with Elizabeth Warren. Hell I'd even take Jim Cramer at this point.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#77
post #39
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you please explain your theory of how massive cuts to government and the ensuing massive layoffs of government workers, and the government buying less stuff from businesses, is going to fix the economy? Please take into account in your explanation that the US is able to borrow at record low rates right now.

And also note that inflation is next to non existent right now. A few years of 3% inflation would do more to fix the housing market than all government assistance put together at this point in time. PS: I still think we should cut government spending by around 30% AND remove the home mortgage tax deduction but both of those need to be slow changes or they are going to cause a great deal of harm.

Removing the home mortgage tax deduction will cause the price of houses to drop, because no one would be able to afford the more expensive houses anymore, and they would have to drop the price to make them affordable.

The only thing that the tax deduction did was to raise the price of houses.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#78
post #4

They almost made it the entire article without throwing in a bit of Both Sides Do It nonsense. "In America the Republicans are guilty of outrageous obstructionism and misleading simplification, while Mr Obama has favoured class warfare over fiscal leadership."

Obama class warfare? No sign of it. I think Obama's a great human being, but he's a essentially a conservative by any sane standard. With the economic stance he holds now, he'd have been a Republican in 1970 (a time in which Republicans were not all horrible).

If Obama is your idea of a Republican, I don't want your idea of a Democrat in office...ever.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#79
All HN threads attract posts with excess ratios of certainty to knowledge.

On the technical stuff, the excesses are met with really knowledgeable rebuttal, driving up the denominator. People are afraid of embarrassment, so they write more carefully, driving down the numerator. The dynamic drives the overall ratio to something like one.

On economics, everyone is really sure the other guy is crazy. They make posts that drive up the numerator, as that's the only way to get heard, and drive down the denominator, as they must address the other guy, whether they know anything about the matter or not. The average blows out hyperbolically -- if there's a limit, the signal / noise drops too low for even the craziest people before that limit is approached.

It's kind of remarkable to see how quickly those ratios go to their logical endpoints.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#80
On one hand, I really hate the Economist. It's a magazine that thinks an ideology, a smart tone, and providing the only decent coverage of world events widely available makes for a compelling magazine. Even if that coverage is ridiculously biased and not really knowledgeable about facts on the ground.

On the other, it's perhaps the pre-eminent mouthpiece for the ruling Anglo-American elite, and it's comforting that they're sounding the alarms to what's happening. I think it's too little too late, but I genuinely hope that people and policymakers hear them.

Because this is really bad, folks. Really, really bad. It's pretty clear the dominoes that will fall: Greece fails, setting off markets and destroying banks across the continent, causing Spain to fail, doing the same, causing Italy, Belgium, maybe even France to fail. Who knows what after that. The EU's demise will signal the financial collapse of an economy larger than the United States; it's already either at the brink or already in a new recession, and this will be the deathblow. The quick succession of collapses, happening all within the span of a month or two, reverberate throughout the entire world, throwing the USA back into a second, possibly harsher recession than the first we have yet to recover from.

The only other solution is converting the European Union into a fiscal union. On the face of it this is implausible: you'd be asking Germans, who in their self imagination see themselves as pure as snow, to pony up hundreds of billions of dollars to subsidize what they see as the lavish lifestyles of lazy unproductive Mediterranean types. Even if you could form some political consensus to do this, though, it's not even clear that politicians could coordinate the solution in time to cut off the collapse. Effectively consolidating dozens of countries into the same fiscal union isn't a change you can implement by sheer willpower; it'd be a herculean task even with years of preparation.

And, stateside, any attempt to counteract or prepare for this tidal wave is simply doomed because of our ridiculously broken institutions. One side has the ability to co-operate and try to fix the situation, but because of how our government is set up all the incentives on their side are to actively sabotage the economy--regardless of causes, if it does badly, the party of the current President will be blamed.

Because people (Americans, Germans, Greeks, Chinese) are all idiots, from the man on the street to the upper echelons of power.

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