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Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

reuters.com

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Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#121

Post by olliej »

sschueller wrote: post #117
olliej wrote: post #116

I'm surprised any gas was still flowing from Russia to the EU - it would seem like that would be the first thing they would have stopped in response to sanctions.

Most of it is still running because it's needed. Same goes for the exports to the US. In fact there is pressure in Switzerland to block the trading of gas since 80% is done here but it would hurt the EU so there is no way this will be done unless the EU decides that they also want to sanction this. The blocking of Swift also has an exclusion for trading of this gas.

Sorry, I may not have been clear: I don't know why Russia would not have halted the pipelines as retribution for the financial sanctions as it seems like one of the few resources they have that Europe needs. I'm sure there's an element of Russia needing those funds to fund its invasion, but it also seems like they could try to use oil supply restrictions to get the other sanctions lifted.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#122

Post by MandieD »

KarlKemp wrote: post #107
tobi_spaceship wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same could be said for Biden.

what?

He probably believes what most of my relatives (most of whom are Texans) do: this is all Biden’s fault for not letting petroleum producers drill and frack wherever and however they want; Putin never would have tried this if he knew the US could just overwhelm the oil market.

They can’t bear to consider that this is something of a last hurrah as Europe tries to wean themselves from the petro drug. There’s plenty of non-petroleum-related business going on in Texas, but the semi-rural power base relies on oil to stay rich.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#123

Post by contingencies »

berto4 wrote: post #17
jotm wrote: post #13

I am quite afraid of Russia shutting off the gas and oil supply. I hope Europe doesn't give up on sanctions then, at least not right away. Betting on Russia needing the income more than we need the resources. Power will go out completely around here and partially in many other regions, but we can live through that. Having solar (plus wind and batteries) is a major boon, and this would undoubtedly drive demand through…

can solar run 24/7 factories?? it's not that simple guys

Depends on the factory. Most production processes are multi-stage. Most multi-stage processes have differing energy needs across individual unit operations. You could easily schedule low energy, slow processes (testing, drying, settling, cooling, etc.) to evenings to better match power availability. This has the secondary benefit that people prefer to sleep at night. Normally you'd have to redesign the whole factory to facilitate such a process change, however.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#124

Post by jopsen »

parineum wrote: post #95
ed_balls wrote: post #75

Without natural resources Russia GDP would be lower than Polish. I think the whole reason for this war is the green transformation of the world. Military dictatorship played the wrong game and didn't mange to reform the country (it seems to be a case for all countries run by military). This is Proxy war with US/Nato to get a trade deal in exchange for balancing China with military power (last card they've got). Franc…

> I think the whole reason for this war is the green transformation of the world. I think you're on the right track but slightly off. NG is "green" by EU standards and Russia does make it's money from NG sales to the EU. I think the piece you're missing is that Ukraine's current government is more friendly to the EU and Ukraine has massive, untapped NG reserves[1]. I have to think that the EU is eyeing Ukrainian NG i…

> I have to think that the EU is eyeing Ukrainian NG in order to cut Russia out of it's economy.

That sounds like something that would take decades..

And a few decades from now the EU plans to be carbon neutral.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#125

Post by RedShift1 »

olliej wrote: post #121
sschueller wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of it is still running because it's needed. Same goes for the exports to the US. In fact there is pressure in Switzerland to block the trading of gas since 80% is done here but it would hurt the EU so there is no way this will be done unless the EU decides that they also want to sanction this. The blocking of Swift also has an exclusion for trading of this gas.

Sorry, I may not have been clear: I don't know why Russia would not have halted the pipelines as retribution for the financial sanctions as it seems like one of the few resources they have that Europe needs. I'm sure there's an element of Russia needing those funds to fund its invasion, but it also seems like they could try to use oil supply restrictions to get the other sanctions lifted.

It seems to me that is only a card you want to play at the very end. There's also the possibility that when the tap closes the EU will adapt and then you've lost billions of revenue forever.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#126

Post by pydry »

MandieD wrote: post #120
bobthepanda wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The resource curse tends to be the rule, not the exception.

Norway seems to have avoided it the past few decades by following the advice Tony Montana didn’t: don’t get high on your own supply. They dampen the effects of easy oil money by putting most of the profits into their sovereign wealth fund and, unlike just about every other oil producing country, taxing fossil fuels even harder than countries like Germany and Denmark (which tax them pretty hard).

Norway is the exception.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#127

Post by pydry »

hkpack wrote: post #109
genousti wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They dont want kiev. That is too big and too hard to defend. They want the east and that is what they will ask during negotiations. Only in netflix war lasts four days. America needed 18 days to do some stuff in iraq

This is a popular misconception. They want all of Ukraine. The east was just a part they could get control over in 2014. But their goal was always the whole country.

Says who?

By all conventional measures it's impossible for them to hold it. Why would we assume thats what theyre trying to do? It makes no sense.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#128

Post by tablespoon »

ciphol wrote: post #119
tablespoon wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Better yet, Ukraine should build some well fortified military bases on top of/next to the pipelines. It seems like Russia's only advantage in this war right now is artillery. But if an errant shell could shut down one of the last remaining sources of revenue, maybe the will think twice? That would only hurt Ukraine's allies. Russia is probably going to end up pivoting to exporting energy to China, anyway. Russia's…

IIRC there are no pipelines between Russia's main oil fields and China, all the pipelines go to Europe

> IIRC there are no pipelines between Russia's main oil fields and China, all the pipelines go to Europe

That doesn't appear to be correct. It apparently has a pipeline, also ships LNG, and is building an even bigger pipeline to come online in a couple years:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-...

> Feb 4 (Reuters) - Russia has agreed a 30-year contract to supply gas to China via a new pipeline and will settle the new gas sales in euros, bolstering an energy alliance with Beijing amid Moscow's strained ties with the West over Ukraine and other issues.

> Gazprom , which has a monopoly on Russian gas exports by pipeline, agreed to supply Chinese state energy major CNPC with 10 billion cubic metres of gas a year, the Russian firm and a Beijing-based industry official said.

> First flows through the pipeline, which will connect Russia's Far East region with northeast China, were due to start in two to three years, the source said in comments that were later followed by an announcement of the deal by Gazprom.

> Russia already sends gas to China via its Power of Siberia pipeline, which began pumping supplies in 2019, and by shipping liquefied natural gas (LNG). It exported 16.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to China in 2021.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#129

Post by greendesk »

raducu wrote: post #54
greendesk wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin’s and his inner circle’s plan was that it will take 1-4 days to take Kiev and two weeks to take most of Ukraine. Minimal resistance was expected. The window of opportunity with this expectation is from mid-December until end of February. They picked a date with this plan.

Plus China said no war during the Olympics. Plus COVID for 2 years..... Plus the russian asset known as the Orange Moneky lost the ellections in the US.

The view explicitly expressed by Russian planners in multiple sources signified that this is their expectation. Public announcements that Kiev will be taken in two weeks by Putin is the best source. Claims for the commonality of the three nations (Belorussian, Ukrainian and Russian) is what would cause this expectation. I am not saying it is rational to expect Kiev ti fall to several days. But I have to admit, Following the situation myself, I have had expected myself Ukraine to fold. I follow Easter European news closely.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#130

Post by greendesk »

hcks wrote: post #60
greendesk wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin’s and his inner circle’s plan was that it will take 1-4 days to take Kiev and two weeks to take most of Ukraine. Minimal resistance was expected. The window of opportunity with this expectation is from mid-December until end of February. They picked a date with this plan.

> Putin’s and his inner circle’s plan was that it will take 1-4 days to take Kiev and two weeks to take most of Ukraine. This is being said a lot these days, but I haven't seen any proof of it. I'm not saying that proofs don't exist nor that it's wrong, just that I've been reading it everywhere, and haven't seen evidence. So I'd be happy if someone reading this could point out to some clues

Copied from another post: The view explicitly expressed by Russian planners in multiple sources signified that this is their expectation. Public announcements that Kiev will be taken in two weeks by Putin is the best source. Claims for the commonality of the three nations (Belorussian, Ukrainian and Russian) is what would cause this expectation. I am not saying it is rational to expect Kiev ti fall to several days. But I have to admit, Following the situation myself, I have had expected myself Ukraine to fold. I follow Easter European news closely, and I express personal analysis too.
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