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Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

reuters.com

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Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#101

Post by WillPostForFood »

adrianN wrote: post #35
exabrial wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10000% Nuclear. France just announced a massive Nuclear project, meanwhile in the USA, the NRC bankrupts every project with non-stop delays instead of timely constructive work with designers, builders, and investors.

When did France announce a massive nuclear project? The last news I heard was that they plan to build a couple of new nuclear power plants, but far from the numbers they'd need to maintain the current capacity as ageing plants go offline in the coming years.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/10/world/europe/france-macro...

Is this not a major project? The article is very lacking in details, so it is hard to tell what it amounts to in terms of impact.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#102

Post by selectodude »

whatshisface wrote: post #79
zatertip wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been leaked from UK intelligence and yesterday Russian war plans were captured that said essentially the same thing: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/2/7327539/

Should I be worried that this publication is named, "pravda?"

No, I think it was kind of a joke to call it Pravda. The guy who started it ended up being decapitated and buried, likely by the government, for uncovering corruption.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#103

Post by neilwilson »

jotm wrote: post #13

I am quite afraid of Russia shutting off the gas and oil supply. I hope Europe doesn't give up on sanctions then, at least not right away. Betting on Russia needing the income more than we need the resources. Power will go out completely around here and partially in many other regions, but we can live through that. Having solar (plus wind and batteries) is a major boon, and this would undoubtedly drive demand through…

Russia has no need of the income because it is in a denomination they can’t now spend.

Countries only need to export to the extent that they can get imports. Anything beyond that is a waste - and clearly so now that foreign reserves are being frozen and defaulted on.

Russia is keeping the gas on to keep the EU out of the war.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#104

Post by ben_w »

tobi_spaceship wrote: post #84
okl wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They also have significant market share exporting certain commodities like Nickel, Palladium &c. -- but not close to gas/oil, true. Since new investment into fossil fuel projects will go to nearly zero from here (and old equipment becomes defunct unless it is replaced), expect there gas/oil exports to decline significantly in the next years/decades. Putin didn't only mess up Ukraine now, he also wrecked his own count…

Same could be said for Biden.

As a foreigner, I can say that whatever it is you’re thinking of isn’t even newsworthy on the international stage.

What Putin has done to Russia is like if an American president had invaded a neighbour and the result was simultaneously $4 trillion central bank assets held abroad getting frozen, most of the billionaires becoming personae non grata in half the planet, a lot of smart people leaving the country as quickly as possible, the stock markets crashing about as hard as the Great Depression, direct refusal by major shipping companies to deal with the nation, and the currency halving relative to everything else, while also finding the hard way that all the military hardware had been “maintained” with cheap lookalike products and the cost difference pocketed by corruption at an unknown part of the chain.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#105

Post by Joeri »

The_rationalist wrote: post #99
Joeri wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solar and wind are already far cheaper than gas or nuclear plants, and they’re still getting cheaper while gas and nuclear are getting more expensive (although to be fair, gas has only recently gotten more expensive). In so far that the economics in favor of renewables+storage don’t work out yet factoring in conversion losses, it is all but inevitable that they will. See the LCOE graphs in this article for the trends…

Nuclear is a lot cheaper than solar, it simply depends on the nuclear plant model. Russians are the world leaders regarding nuclear plants time to market and costs (4 years).

Which would be great if we could invite russia to build nuclear plants in the U.S. and EU. Right now that might not be the best plan.

We need a model that is cheap and safe everywhere, in every country, not just in china and russia.

Also, I wouldn’t put too much faith into Russian numbers for their nuclear projects. They’ve pretty much got the patent on propaganda.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#106

Post by tablespoon »

qqqwerty wrote: post #77
ls612 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Makes you wonder if one side or the other will “accidentally” damage those pipelines. Like obviously they can’t overtly do it but you know, stuff gets damaged every day in combat zones… it would certainly immensely hurt Russia’s strategic position to have their gas exports cut off.

Better yet, Ukraine should build some well fortified military bases on top of/next to the pipelines. It seems like Russia's only advantage in this war right now is artillery. But if an errant shell could shut down one of the last remaining sources of revenue, maybe the will think twice?

> Better yet, Ukraine should build some well fortified military bases on top of/next to the pipelines. It seems like Russia's only advantage in this war right now is artillery. But if an errant shell could shut down one of the last remaining sources of revenue, maybe the will think twice?

That would only hurt Ukraine's allies. Russia is probably going to end up pivoting to exporting energy to China, anyway.

Russia's going to see this invasion through. It's clear that there's not some "one weird [economic] trick" that will get them to turn around and go home. The only way that's going to happen is if they're defeated militarily.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#107

Post by KarlKemp »

tobi_spaceship wrote: post #84
okl wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They also have significant market share exporting certain commodities like Nickel, Palladium &c. -- but not close to gas/oil, true. Since new investment into fossil fuel projects will go to nearly zero from here (and old equipment becomes defunct unless it is replaced), expect there gas/oil exports to decline significantly in the next years/decades. Putin didn't only mess up Ukraine now, he also wrecked his own count…

Same could be said for Biden.

what?

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#108

Post by KarlKemp »

Majromax wrote: post #93
Traster wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is like comparing buying bottled water instead of using the taps in your house. Yes, technically you can do this, but transporting that bottled water is painful, and at the scale of a whole country doing it, is a huge logistical challenge. You could eventually get to the point where LNG replaced the pipelines, but that's not going to happen overnight, and the European energy grids need to heat homes this winter.

That's not quite it. The bottled water / tap water comparison is still transporting exactly the same commodity. Liquefied natural gas, however, is much denser than its non-liquefied equivalent. Per Wikipedia, Nordstream 1 can deliver 55 G(m^3)/yr of natural gas. Per a US government source ( https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50598 ), the United States has an LNG export capacity of about 12 G(ft^3)/day, o…

The conversion is wrong. 12 Gf*3 =~ 1.2 Gm*3

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#109

Post by hkpack »

genousti wrote: post #83
greendesk wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin’s and his inner circle’s plan was that it will take 1-4 days to take Kiev and two weeks to take most of Ukraine. Minimal resistance was expected. The window of opportunity with this expectation is from mid-December until end of February. They picked a date with this plan.

They dont want kiev. That is too big and too hard to defend. They want the east and that is what they will ask during negotiations. Only in netflix war lasts four days. America needed 18 days to do some stuff in iraq

This is a popular misconception. They want all of Ukraine.

The east was just a part they could get control over in 2014. But their goal was always the whole country.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#110

Post by KarlKemp »

berto4 wrote: post #17
jotm wrote: post #13

I am quite afraid of Russia shutting off the gas and oil supply. I hope Europe doesn't give up on sanctions then, at least not right away. Betting on Russia needing the income more than we need the resources. Power will go out completely around here and partially in many other regions, but we can live through that. Having solar (plus wind and batteries) is a major boon, and this would undoubtedly drive demand through…

can solar run 24/7 factories?? it's not that simple guys

I don’t believe factories here in Germany run 24/7, to be honest. But anyway: wind energy is quite cheap at night.
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