Earlier quoted context omitted.
> can easily bypass SWIFT restrictions and transact with the affected Russian banks directly “Easily” is the squishy bit here. If they’re settling in dollars, probably not, unless someone’s carting around paper dollars. (This has been done.) If they’re settling in rubles or yuan, for most definitions of “easily,” yes.
> If they’re settling in rubles or yuan, for most definitions of “easily,” yes. Completely agree with your comment, just wanted to add that the vast majority of international companies will require a settlement in DM currencies (mainly dollar). This ensures that the relative size of the deal stays stable, as these currencies are highly stable and not subject to domestic manipulation. For a deal to be settled in, say,…
Can you truly call them stable with 7+% official inflation, negative real interest rates, and China owning 3+ trillion USD-nominated assets, which it probably will start to gradually sell in the wake of sanctions against the Central Bank of Russia?