Ask HN: Do you think nuclear armageddon is plausible?

The scale of modern nuclear weapons make Hiroshima look like a toy.

Every potential position of a nuclear second strike would be hit with a warhead.

That's huge swaths of land converted to nothing for 2-5km in every direction.

Humans might survive, but not in places with nuclear weapons.

South America and Africa looking pretty safe right now.

I'm more worried about us being wiped out by the universe realizing it forgot a constant somewhere: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_vacuum_decay#Existential...

I think it makes more sense to break this question down into a few specific ones:

1. How likely is it that Putin will want to use nuclear weapons?

- I don't think he is that mad, but who knows? If the pressure inside Russia starts to rise, protests expand and a win in Ukraine starts to get more and more unlikely.. Cornered animals start to lash out. If he thinks it's his last chance to save himself or his legacy, he may go that far. Do I think he would attack a NATO country? No. But maybe he would attack Ukraine and hope that would somehow save him.

2. How likely is it, that his orders will be followed?

- He seems to have surrounded himself with yes-man, so I don't think some higher up would stop him. But just like with Stanislav Petrov it's often people down the line who, when faced with the actual consequences of their actions, choose to do the right thing.

3. How likely is it, that they will hit/explode?

- I have no sources, and it's just a personal feeling: I think the U.S. and probably even China have technologies to shoot down any Russian nuclear missile attacks. Looking at some UFO videos, which have popped up, and my belief that those aren't alien but advanced military aircraft, I think this would be a good bet to make. Whether they would use it to save Ukraine and show their (technological) hand is another question. But I would say the chance of a Russian nuclear missile hitting a NATO country and exploding is pretty low.

4. How likely is it, that it will trigger a response?

- If it explodes in Ukraine, who knows. The war in Ukraine would be over at that point, I think it would more likely trigger an (extreme) non-nuclear response, which would result in Russia being made unable to further attack and Putin and his inner-circle being obliterated. If they attack a NATO country, all bets are off.

Why worry about it? It either won't happen, in which case you worried for nothing, or it will, and it won't be your problem anymore.

Hiroshima was a fart compared to the average yield of a warhead. Hiroshima was hit by a 13kT TNT equivalent. The average modern warhead is about 300-500kT -- dialble, but assume the max. if it's all in. (That doesn't change that Hiroshima was a tradegy.) A rocket with multiple warheads often enough carries 5*1MT -- all major cities would be rubble.

Ca. 100 modern warheads mean a multi year nuclear winter -- more will be fired, right know more than 1000 active on either side. Even with a small scale catastrophe: if you don't have enough food in your basement, prep. for cannibalism. The civilization would be horrible.