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I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

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Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#151

Post by epgui »

2muchcoffeeman wrote: post #135
epgui wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really not clear to me what gives a human the nearly-magical ability to make decisions that a computer could not possibly make. If anything, I think we've seen that computers are much better than humans at making decisions in an ever-expanding set of narrow contexts (eg.: chess, go, protein folding...). It's not so much a matter of "can a computer do it better", it's more a question of "when are we going to figu…

Your examples are things that can mostly be broken down or modeled logically though. Chess are Go are hard so I guess it seems like AI for them means there some sort of fundamental break through. But consider how a human or even a dog catches a ball. You can study physics and learn that a ball will follow a parabola when thrown and the the shape of parabola is determined by the velocity as it leaves the throwers hand…

I absolutely think the type of decision we're talking about can be modelled. I'm not suggesting it's trivial, and I'm not saying there's a nice and tidy closed analytical solution, which is what you appear to be focused on with your parabola/physics-based example, but I absolutely think statistical methods (or "AI/ML" if you prefer) can be applied to the problem. It's pretty much how your brain solves these sorts of problems too, there's no magic to intuition or human decision-making.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#152

Post by ec109685 »

joenathanone wrote: post #139
TulliusCicero wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, though IIRC Tesla at least has now stopped using radar.

Which I personally think is a mistake. I'm in the FSD beta and previously Tesla bounced the radar off the ground and was able to see a few car lengths ahead, vision only, not so much. The effect is when stuck in heavy traffic on surface streets FSD beta will think it should try to go around a lead car that is stopped, not knowing there is a long line of traffic ahead of the lead car. I don't see how they can overcome…

How is camera placement worse than what we can see as a driver?

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#153

Post by davewritescode »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #92
jdlshore wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Classic whataboutism. GM's irresponsible behavior doesn't excuse Tesla's irresponsible behavior.

I don’t believe Autopilot, a robust driver assist system with substantial safeguards, is irresponsible (as someone who has used it for ~60k miles of travel). I do believe allowing people to die because you don’t want to replace a defective ignition switch is. That’s not whataboutism, it’s pointing out hypocrisy. NHTSA believes Autopilot is safe enough to continue to allow its use on public roads. What makes a random…

The big problem with Autopilot is the sleazy way it’s been marketed and sold to customers and regulators versus what the system really is. Charging folks $10k for an option with the CEO insisting that “full self driving” is shipping next year is borderline fraud.

I won’t buy a GM product and I won’t buy a Tesla product either, happy?

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#154

Post by NikolaNovak »

gcanyon wrote: post #143
paganel wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I often drive with sub in my eyes at dawn/dusk and trust that the road is clear Not sure how to say it, but try to never do that going forward, please, for your sake and for the sake of the others who share the same road with you. Yes, driving "blind" for one second, maybe two seconds (even though it's uncomfortable for me at this point) from time to time is not the end of the world, particularly if you're driving…

A younger, stupider me was riding a motorcycle on highway 99 near Merced. It was just after dawn on a Saturday, with literally no one else on the road for miles. So as an experiment, at 70 mph I put my face down on the gas tank: I could see the highway lines on either side, but literally nothing ahead. I wanted to see how long I could hold that position without freaking out. Answer: about twenty seconds. This is far…

I have a more vivid imagination than you... I could only last about 2 seconds imagining it before freaking out :D

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#155

Post by ec109685 »

Traster wrote: post #101
nbardy wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to agree with you, but I think the last 3 months in computer vision changes everything. Unstructured learning on Image+Text pairs has exploded and set STOTA on benchmark across the field. While the data coming from LIDAR may be better. There is no where near the amount of LIDAR data in the world. Images and cameras have the advantage here where internet is full of weakly labeled data that turns out to be the k…

So is this a self-fulfilling prophecy? Some guy decides a trillion dollar company should discard an entire dataset for no reason, and as a result a decade late the company can finally actually do the job, thus proving the guy ?right?

At least with radar, it was causing the car to make more mistakes given it was reacting to either.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#156

Post by tintor »

bluGill wrote: post #32
walrus01 wrote: post #26

From the last time that Cruise showed up on HN a while back, I recall I made a comment based on the photos of their test vehicles that they're clearly going all-in on LIDAR + RADAR + camera for feeding data into their autonomous onboard navigation computer. This is directly the opposite of what Tesla has mandated their engineers to do, which is to be 100% reliant upon camera systems only. Somebody at Cruise commented…

My problem with cameras is as a human I'm well aware there are things that I can't see and so i rely on faith. I've driven in dense fog trusting that nobody else would be stupid enough to do the same (fortunately taillights can be seen through fog, but not many other dangers that normally are not on the road, but if so they are dead). I often drive with sub in my eyes at dawn/dusk and trust that the road is clear. I…

The problem with lidar + radar is that it can't distinguish between soft drive-able things (smoke, steam, paper bag, grass, water splashing) from hard collide-able things.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#157

Post by bentcorner »

epgui wrote: post #116
kelnos wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that was the parent's point. These things could be made safer with other detection technologies beyond plain cameras. A human driver can make a conscious, nuanced decision to make these "faith-based decisions", but a computer may not be able to. So perhaps it might just completely refuse to drive in those situations if all it has is a camera, but it can't see anything due to fog or terrain, even if it w…

It's really not clear to me what gives a human the nearly-magical ability to make decisions that a computer could not possibly make. If anything, I think we've seen that computers are much better than humans at making decisions in an ever-expanding set of narrow contexts (eg.: chess, go, protein folding...). It's not so much a matter of "can a computer do it better", it's more a question of "when are we going to figu…

I think there's some niche driving scenarios that humans will continue to beat computers at. What comes to mind most readily are meta-knowledge things like "It's 2:45 and I saw the school bus go by, right now it's letting kids off and blocking traffic up ahead so there will be no traffic on this cross-street". Or "The football game on the radio is ending soon, I better avoid the streets near the stadium because there will be a lot of pedestrians".

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#158

Post by bastawhiz »

ec109685 wrote: post #152
joenathanone wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which I personally think is a mistake. I'm in the FSD beta and previously Tesla bounced the radar off the ground and was able to see a few car lengths ahead, vision only, not so much. The effect is when stuck in heavy traffic on surface streets FSD beta will think it should try to go around a lead car that is stopped, not knowing there is a long line of traffic ahead of the lead car. I don't see how they can overcome…

How is camera placement worse than what we can see as a driver?

Humans can turn their heads. We also have stereoscopic vision that is able to gain visual clarity with minor movements. Our eyes also mechanically adjust the amount of light they receive, can focus dynamically, and are self cleaning.

Could you do this with cameras? Possibly, but it would be a lot of cameras and a lot of mechanical parts—not ideal for a car.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#159

Post by bastawhiz »

davewritescode wrote: post #153
toomuchtodo wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t believe Autopilot, a robust driver assist system with substantial safeguards, is irresponsible (as someone who has used it for ~60k miles of travel). I do believe allowing people to die because you don’t want to replace a defective ignition switch is. That’s not whataboutism, it’s pointing out hypocrisy. NHTSA believes Autopilot is safe enough to continue to allow its use on public roads. What makes a random…

The big problem with Autopilot is the sleazy way it’s been marketed and sold to customers and regulators versus what the system really is. Charging folks $10k for an option with the CEO insisting that “full self driving” is shipping next year is borderline fraud. I won’t buy a GM product and I won’t buy a Tesla product either, happy?

It's worth being precise about the terminology: Autopilot comes with the car (autosteer), FSD is what costs $10k extra.

Conflating the two makes it harder to have a conversation about what either actually is or does.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#160

Post by throwaway0a5e »

paganel wrote: post #112
bluGill wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My problem with cameras is as a human I'm well aware there are things that I can't see and so i rely on faith. I've driven in dense fog trusting that nobody else would be stupid enough to do the same (fortunately taillights can be seen through fog, but not many other dangers that normally are not on the road, but if so they are dead). I often drive with sub in my eyes at dawn/dusk and trust that the road is clear. I…

> I often drive with sub in my eyes at dawn/dusk and trust that the road is clear Not sure how to say it, but try to never do that going forward, please, for your sake and for the sake of the others who share the same road with you. Yes, driving "blind" for one second, maybe two seconds (even though it's uncomfortable for me at this point) from time to time is not the end of the world, particularly if you're driving…

>not sure how to say it, but try to never do that going forward,

And what? Be the lead car of the N-car pileup?

It's real easy to spit out idealized "never/always" type crap on the internet but meatspace is full of nuance and no rules of thumb can save you from having to make judgement calls.

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