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I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

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Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it's not finished. Have you asked Cruise testers how many interventions they have had to do in equivalent drives as Tesla FSD Beta? It's strange to me that Tesla who are building this in the open are criticised for being dishonest. Meanwhile ALL the competitors are closed door private development and some how we should trust them more? In an industry that is known for deceitful behaviour.

> Last year, Waymo logged 29,945 autonomous miles between reported disengagements. https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1458169984987942913 > Cruise drove 41,719 miles in autonomous mode per disengagement. > Waymo drove 2.36 million miles autonomously with one accident that was the vehicle's fault. https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1495801454111727616

And how many of those can be turned on on literally any street in the US?

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#142

From the last time that Cruise showed up on HN a while back, I recall I made a comment based on the photos of their test vehicles that they're clearly going all-in on LIDAR + RADAR + camera for feeding data into their autonomous onboard navigation computer. This is directly the opposite of what Tesla has mandated their engineers to do, which is to be 100% reliant upon camera systems only. Somebody at Cruise commented…

> cost of LIDAR units through economies of scale

Is there some cost prohibitive licensing on it that affects adoption the way e-ink patents have limited product creation?

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#143
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My problem with cameras is as a human I'm well aware there are things that I can't see and so i rely on faith. I've driven in dense fog trusting that nobody else would be stupid enough to do the same (fortunately taillights can be seen through fog, but not many other dangers that normally are not on the road, but if so they are dead). I often drive with sub in my eyes at dawn/dusk and trust that the road is clear. I…

> I often drive with sub in my eyes at dawn/dusk and trust that the road is clear Not sure how to say it, but try to never do that going forward, please, for your sake and for the sake of the others who share the same road with you. Yes, driving "blind" for one second, maybe two seconds (even though it's uncomfortable for me at this point) from time to time is not the end of the world, particularly if you're driving…

A younger, stupider me was riding a motorcycle on highway 99 near Merced. It was just after dawn on a Saturday, with literally no one else on the road for miles.

So as an experiment, at 70 mph I put my face down on the gas tank: I could see the highway lines on either side, but literally nothing ahead. I wanted to see how long I could hold that position without freaking out. Answer: about twenty seconds.

This is far from the only experiment I did back then, I’m lucky to be alive.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#144

From the last time that Cruise showed up on HN a while back, I recall I made a comment based on the photos of their test vehicles that they're clearly going all-in on LIDAR + RADAR + camera for feeding data into their autonomous onboard navigation computer. This is directly the opposite of what Tesla has mandated their engineers to do, which is to be 100% reliant upon camera systems only. Somebody at Cruise commented…

I would not take Elon and Tesla at face value. While they are currently going all in on cameras, I wouldn't put it past them to 180 and decide "turns out we need new hardware, and we're going to eat the cost considering our revenue and market cap." They recently filed to test new millimeter wave radar equipment operating at 60GHz [1], so I wouldn't say they're married to vision only if it turns out vision only isn't…

That electrek article doesn't make it very clear, but Ka band radar is not new. Project Soli used it for gesture detection. Those roadside "speedometer" signs run at 20ghz. Etc.

You could imagine an AESA phased array at 60ghz. But there's a reason you only see those radars on aircraft or military vessels: you need hundreds or thousands of individual transmitters. That's why they cost millions of dollars and draw kilowatts of power, it's not (entirely) defense contractor featherbedding. So where's the cost savings over LIDAR? You can drop the number of radios to save money, but then you don't have meaningfully more resolution then any other automotive single-point radar.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm still excited about the LIDAR possibilities but vision alone has done a remarkable job. Not for Tesla. So many interventions. So many situations where the car actively tries to kill the driver and pedestrians.

But it's not finished. Have you asked Cruise testers how many interventions they have had to do in equivalent drives as Tesla FSD Beta? It's strange to me that Tesla who are building this in the open are criticised for being dishonest. Meanwhile ALL the competitors are closed door private development and some how we should trust them more? In an industry that is known for deceitful behaviour.

I'm not sure what you consider open about Tesla's approach. The fact that you can run updates without a license or any clue about what's changed or how it will perform in your area is exactly the issue! Tesla goes out of their way to avoid publishing actual metrics for safety, even useless ones like the annual DMV reports. Waymo, cruise etc aren't much better in public, but maybe it's a small comfort to know there are advocates internally (myself included) at all of these to publish that data?

Qualitatively, there's no comparison between them. Waymo and cruise are today more than capable of autonomy without a driver in certain circumstances. Tesla still has trouble staying in the lane and doesn't define an ODD or even claim L4 for fair comparison.

For background, I've been in waymo and cruise' vehicles, and ridden with AP. I've only seen FSD in video form.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#146
post #78

From the last time that Cruise showed up on HN a while back, I recall I made a comment based on the photos of their test vehicles that they're clearly going all-in on LIDAR + RADAR + camera for feeding data into their autonomous onboard navigation computer. This is directly the opposite of what Tesla has mandated their engineers to do, which is to be 100% reliant upon camera systems only. Somebody at Cruise commented…

I used to agree with you, but I think the last 3 months in computer vision changes everything. Unstructured learning on Image+Text pairs has exploded and set STOTA on benchmark across the field. While the data coming from LIDAR may be better. There is no where near the amount of LIDAR data in the world. Images and cameras have the advantage here where internet is full of weakly labeled data that turns out to be the k…

Am I missing something? What specifically is a paradigm shift in the last three months?

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would not take Elon and Tesla at face value. While they are currently going all in on cameras, I wouldn't put it past them to 180 and decide "turns out we need new hardware, and we're going to eat the cost considering our revenue and market cap." They recently filed to test new millimeter wave radar equipment operating at 60GHz [1], so I wouldn't say they're married to vision only if it turns out vision only isn't…

That electrek article doesn't make it very clear, but Ka band radar is not new. Project Soli used it for gesture detection. Those roadside "speedometer" signs run at 20ghz. Etc. You could imagine an AESA phased array at 60ghz. But there's a reason you only see those radars on aircraft or military vessels: you need hundreds or thousands of individual transmitters. That's why they cost millions of dollars and draw kilo…

[deleted]

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Last year, Waymo logged 29,945 autonomous miles between reported disengagements. https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1458169984987942913 > Cruise drove 41,719 miles in autonomous mode per disengagement. > Waymo drove 2.36 million miles autonomously with one accident that was the vehicle's fault. https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1495801454111727616

And how many of those can be turned on on literally any street in the US?

A high rate of interventions is virtually GEO-fenced to only highways and not cities.

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I often drive with sub in my eyes at dawn/dusk and trust that the road is clear Not sure how to say it, but try to never do that going forward, please, for your sake and for the sake of the others who share the same road with you. Yes, driving "blind" for one second, maybe two seconds (even though it's uncomfortable for me at this point) from time to time is not the end of the world, particularly if you're driving…

A younger, stupider me was riding a motorcycle on highway 99 near Merced. It was just after dawn on a Saturday, with literally no one else on the road for miles. So as an experiment, at 70 mph I put my face down on the gas tank: I could see the highway lines on either side, but literally nothing ahead. I wanted to see how long I could hold that position without freaking out. Answer: about twenty seconds. This is far…

This gave me a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. I thought I was a badass letting go of my bmx bike handlebars for 5 seconds going downhill as kid in middle school… you really took it to the next level my friend. Glad you are alive and well!

Re: I have formally accepted the CEO job at Cruise once again

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I do wonder if, deep down, Tesla's decision is rooted in aesthetics. I've always read it as Tesla trying to do a paradigm leap. It seems everyone in self-driving knows you can do it pretty well with a huge variety of sensors, but what if you got extremely good at only camera-based then added in the new sensors. Basically, if you can establish that the very worst case works, you can add in more sensors to go beyond…

You don't have to remove sensors to write code that way. And what if the best answer is being extremely good at lidar-only and then adding in cameras on top.

> You don't have to remove sensors to write code that way.

I think that's debatable. There are plenty of stories of trying to force an outcome of a big software project and things not going as expected.

https://medium.com/@herbcaudill/lessons-from-6-software-rewr...

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