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Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status

reuters.com

41–50 of 165 posts

Re: Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status

#41
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a country not planning to occupy, the US lead coalition sure stayed for quite some time.

I think maybe parent is maybe combining info from the first and second invasion into one.

Could be yes, didn't think about it. But didn't they create a Shiit uprising in the south during the first one? An uprising they allowed Sadam to shoot down with whatever limited forces he was left with?

Re: Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For Russia? Yes. For Putin? No.

That depends entirely - what was the goal of this attack in the first place? Did he think he could quickly take Ukraine and the West wouldn't interfere? It's possible. His soldiers look unmotivated, even unprepared though. Maybe it's part of a larger strategy. We might see more crisis popping up soon.

In soviet times (and possibly any other tyrant dictator era) the dictator was told what he wanted to hear or be (literally or figuratively) dead.

So perfectly valid assumption is that command chain inflated the capabilities and morale of the army wildly.

Also, I think it would be naive to think that the army is the one place were kleptocracy is not stealing from.

So who knows, maybe the tyrant is playing 5D chess and shit is going to go really bad or he could be playing 1D chess because ...

Re: Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status

#43

Belarus is part of an official Union State with Russia, which is a framework designed to expand to eventually include other nations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State

This organization was essentially dormant as Lukashenko tried to maintain some independence from Russia. But after he was almost toppled by a popular uprising two years ago he had to bend the knee to Putin to keep a hold on power. Belarus is now basically a puppet government with Russian troops permanently occupying.

Re: Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's one of the lessons, isn't it? First the West reneged on the Nuclear deal with Iran, now Russia invaded Ukraine. All the while North Korea is just simply left alone.

I think what he meant was that in 1994, in the Budapest Memorandum, it was decided that Ukraine would hand their nuclear weapons to Russia over and in return Russia promised never invade Ukraine. Interesting that the fact that it could be a mistake was raised back in the days already: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine#De... I would be interesting to find out what the other "experts" said back…

Ukraine, as well as Belarus and Kazakhstan, after the Belovezh Accords (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belovezh_Accords) have already transferred all its nuclear weapons to Russia in 1992. So by the time Lisbon memorandum was signed in 1994 Ukraine did not have any nuclear weapons.

Re: Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status

#47

Belarus is part of an official Union State with Russia, which is a framework designed to expand to eventually include other nations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State

There's an explicit plan to reassemble "Greater Russia" around the historical borders of Kievan Rus. Which includes Belarus and Ukraine.

Re: Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For Russia? Yes. For Putin? No.

That depends entirely - what was the goal of this attack in the first place? Did he think he could quickly take Ukraine and the West wouldn't interfere? It's possible. His soldiers look unmotivated, even unprepared though. Maybe it's part of a larger strategy. We might see more crisis popping up soon.

> Did he think he could quickly take Ukraine and the West wouldn't interfere?

No and yes. He's taking it slowly because he knows the West won't interfere.

It's not a blitz, it's a siege.

Re: Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's one of the lessons, isn't it? First the West reneged on the Nuclear deal with Iran, now Russia invaded Ukraine. All the while North Korea is just simply left alone.

I think what he meant was that in 1994, in the Budapest Memorandum, it was decided that Ukraine would hand their nuclear weapons to Russia over and in return Russia promised never invade Ukraine. Interesting that the fact that it could be a mistake was raised back in the days already: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine#De... I would be interesting to find out what the other "experts" said back…

> The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and The United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the Principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

Russia wasn’t the only signatory of the memorandum.

Re: Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For Russia? Yes. For Putin? No.

That depends entirely - what was the goal of this attack in the first place? Did he think he could quickly take Ukraine and the West wouldn't interfere? It's possible. His soldiers look unmotivated, even unprepared though. Maybe it's part of a larger strategy. We might see more crisis popping up soon.

I can't help but think there's something else happening in the background, or that this is part of something larger.

It feels like a distraction because the "goal" seems ... both unclear and not worth the reputation damage.

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