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US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

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Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#51

Post by tartoran »

andy_ppp wrote: post #33
tartoran wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but if the whole country goes through enough unnecesary hardship (Russians have a tough life) and his manupulative PR apparatus stops functioning he could start fearing for his life. Any of his thugs he’s surrounded by could at some point initiate a mutiny and eventually after failed attempts it could end his reign. Putin is bluffing big time too, he knows it. At the same time he achieved so much power and wealth…

If I’d have been talked to the way the spy chief was by Putin the other day I would definitely consider that my own personal safety was at risk.

Yes, that was a terrifying display of the fear people have of Putin. It’s a double edged sword for sure and should not be confused for love.

Let’s not talk about the perils of being surrounded by yes men.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#52

Post by basementcat »

jkmcf wrote: post #26

In the last 30 years I can’t recall a single time sanctions have worked.

Might be just outside your threshold but the divestment campaign against South Africa is credited with helping to end the system of Apartheid.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disinvestment_from_South_Afr...

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#53

Post by tartoran »

shmobot wrote: post #50
Ancapistani wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Short term? No. Longer term? Maybe. Enough pressure on those in power will erode Putin’ support base. Cut off enough of his wealth and he’ll have a harder time holding on to power.

In any case it won't stop him from continuing his anschluss of Ukraine at this very moment.

Oh no, he could crush Ukraine for now but that does not guarantee a definitive victory. But think about the hate Ukrainians have for Russian oppression, they’d stay quiet for a while if needed (for lack of viable options) but at the next chance they’d stab their captor in their back in a moment of weakness. Brothers they will never be by force.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#54

Post by freerobots »

john_moscow wrote: post #47
323 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but I cannot envision the West doing it Give it a few weeks. Remember how Nord Stream 2 was untouchable just a month ago. If you consider the 7 stages of grief, the West is in 1-Shock or 2-Denial stage. 3-Anger is just starting.

The West is weak. It is used to solving problems on paper (2008 crisis, Pandemic-time money printing) and hoping that it will somehow pan out. The tolerance for getting out of your comfort zone is near zero. The politicians will toss out a few strong-worded U.N. resolutions and will hope that Putin gets bored, or their term expires before it gets any worse. Except, it only works, as long as less spoiled people in les…

This is why I'm skeptical of claims that Putin won't get what he wants here. The West is politically incapable of rallying people to do the right thing if it comes at any degradation to their livelihoods. US/EU banks still want their bonds paid and US oil companies don't want Russia seizing their investments. The incumbent party, especially in an election year, doesn't want any more economic risk, and the donor class won't stand for any losses.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#55

Post by tartoran »

throwaway09223 wrote: post #36
3pt14159 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wealthier than the Queen of England? Wealthier than the Saudi Royal Family? Wealth stops making sense for heads of state because it's wrapped up in politics and tradition. Vladimir can't come to Austin Texas on a whim and buy himself a mess of grouper and bourbon. I can. I'm here now. I traveled here from Toronto on a whim. Is he is wealthier than I am? The answer is still obviously yes, but it starts to get fuzzy vs…

He's a lot wealthier than both the Queen and bin Talal (wealthiest Saudi) put together. The Queen isn't even a billionaire. He's not free as of a few days ago, but he's vastly more wealthy.

The gross of that wealth is probably not going to be inheritable to Putin’s family, though I doubt his family aren’t set up for generations. The wealth Putin ammassed is based on confiscation from other oligarchs who made their wealth in turn by embezelment from the public wealth of the former USSR and actual embezzlement done by the little Napoleon of Russia himself (yes, I mean Putin and yes I’m hinting at a certain complex).

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#56

Post by throwaway09223 »

3pt14159 wrote: post #44
throwaway09223 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's a lot wealthier than both the Queen and bin Talal (wealthiest Saudi) put together. The Queen isn't even a billionaire. He's not free as of a few days ago, but he's vastly more wealthy.

You're basically making my point for me. The Queen of England is the theoretical owner of most of the land in all of Canada. Take a look at this map of Ontario, for example: https://mapsontheweb.zoom-maps.com/post/140865732363/crown-l... It doesn't make sense to compare or consider heads of states' wealth. They can't spend like a true billionaire and they have powers that billionaires do not. They can order the death…

> The Queen of England is the theoretical owner

No, she isn't. The crown holdings haven't been owned privately for hundreds of years.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#57

Post by jacquesm »

gzer0 wrote: post #40
andy_ppp wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I’d have been talked to the way the spy chief was by Putin the other day I would definitely consider that my own personal safety was at risk.

For reference, here is the exchange: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucEs0nBuowE

What a farce. But one takeaway is that Putin's support in his inner circle is waning.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#58

Post by jansen555 »

_jal wrote: post #5
mirntyfirty wrote: post #2

Can someone explain whether this has a meaningful effect on those that are targeted?

It really depends on whether or not they choose to meaningfully go after their offshore assets. Krugman wrote a useful discussion of the topic: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-sa...

No post body was provided.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#59

Post by shmobot »

sebmellen wrote: post #4

Does this really do anything? I read a decently insightful article in the Economist yesterday, claiming Putin's inner circle doesn't have anything to lose, as they have all already been sanctioned by the Treasury: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/02/19/alexander... .

Many of them have kids and other relatives in the West, living off their money. Releasing the information who they are and cutting them off can be the next step.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#60

Post by jaredklewis »

jkmcf wrote: post #26

In the last 30 years I can’t recall a single time sanctions have worked.

Whether they “work” depends on the goal I suppose.

If the goal is to get misbehaving countries or leaders to change their behavior, I’m not aware of any examples, not matter how far back we look in history, where they worked. Plenty of examples where sanctions are imposed and the behavior gets worse.

If the goal is to weaken a country (which could be a good thing, if that country is belligerent), I think there are plenty examples of that working. It can have the unfortunate side effect of also impoverishing the ordinary citizens of the sanctioned nation.

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