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US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

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Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#41

As someone who's been tracking Russian politics due to being born there some time ago, the recent wave of sanctions are starting to have a rather undesired effect. Roughly since 2008 (Georgian war), Russia has been actively cutting many economic ties that could have been used as a point of leverage. They have a knock-off debit card system [0], dedicated Internet censorship agency [1], and have been expelling Western…

> but I cannot envision the West doing it

Give it a few weeks. Remember how Nord Stream 2 was untouchable just a month ago.

If you consider the 7 stages of grief, the West is in 1-Shock or 2-Denial stage. 3-Anger is just starting.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#42

As someone who's been tracking Russian politics due to being born there some time ago, the recent wave of sanctions are starting to have a rather undesired effect. Roughly since 2008 (Georgian war), Russia has been actively cutting many economic ties that could have been used as a point of leverage. They have a knock-off debit card system [0], dedicated Internet censorship agency [1], and have been expelling Western…

I don't think anyone who actually thinks past headlines doesn't realize that this will hurt the Russian populace more than it will Putin, but they're really one of the pressure points to getting him to stop his war crimes against Ukraine. I think it's a multifront effort without actually firing bullets and the best tool that we have.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#43

As someone who's been tracking Russian politics due to being born there some time ago, the recent wave of sanctions are starting to have a rather undesired effect. Roughly since 2008 (Georgian war), Russia has been actively cutting many economic ties that could have been used as a point of leverage. They have a knock-off debit card system [0], dedicated Internet censorship agency [1], and have been expelling Western…

Please forward your suggestions to CIA. I am beginning to worry that they have run out of ideas.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wealthier than the Queen of England? Wealthier than the Saudi Royal Family? Wealth stops making sense for heads of state because it's wrapped up in politics and tradition. Vladimir can't come to Austin Texas on a whim and buy himself a mess of grouper and bourbon. I can. I'm here now. I traveled here from Toronto on a whim. Is he is wealthier than I am? The answer is still obviously yes, but it starts to get fuzzy vs…

He's a lot wealthier than both the Queen and bin Talal (wealthiest Saudi) put together. The Queen isn't even a billionaire. He's not free as of a few days ago, but he's vastly more wealthy.

You're basically making my point for me. The Queen of England is the theoretical owner of most of the land in all of Canada. Take a look at this map of Ontario, for example:

https://mapsontheweb.zoom-maps.com/post/140865732363/crown-l...

It doesn't make sense to compare or consider heads of states' wealth. They can't spend like a true billionaire and they have powers that billionaires do not. They can order the death of almost any human being on earth without worrying about security.

It makes more sense to talk of power differentials between heads of state and heads of government than it does mere cash.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wealthier than the Queen of England? Wealthier than the Saudi Royal Family? Wealth stops making sense for heads of state because it's wrapped up in politics and tradition. Vladimir can't come to Austin Texas on a whim and buy himself a mess of grouper and bourbon. I can. I'm here now. I traveled here from Toronto on a whim. Is he is wealthier than I am? The answer is still obviously yes, but it starts to get fuzzy vs…

Well, for one Queen of England(queen of a lot of other nations as well) doesn't have any power like say what Saudi King or Putin has. She is a mere ceremonial head. Also, from what I have read, the estimates of her wealth doesn't even make her a billionaire.

I think she is worth about £350 million private wealth but the British Monarchy as an entity is worth about £70billion so a lot more than Putin's reported £18billion.

The Queen is reportedly also able to spend 15% of the Crown Estate which holds about about £10billion in land assets.

Prince Philip was paid half a million a year by Govt and the Queen is paid £65million a year.

https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/royals/queen-elizabeth-ne...

On the point of power, she is the law in the UK, as head of state she is the top, so whilst she has never exercised her powers to cancel Govt, she has the legal authority to do this.

She also receives weekly updates from not only the Prime Minister, but she also gets weekly updates from the heads of the arm forces, security services and other heads of public entities. So when considering her Royal Advisors, these are perhaps best seen as a form of long running Shadow Govt not to be confused with the Govt opposition parties, so she can influence govt overtly and covertly, in much the same way as a teacher might make a passing remark to a pupil, or another person in a position of authority making a comment to an inferior. Its subtle but right there on display, with nothing to hide because people dont recognise the psychological Obedience to Authority.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's a lot wealthier than both the Queen and bin Talal (wealthiest Saudi) put together. The Queen isn't even a billionaire. He's not free as of a few days ago, but he's vastly more wealthy.

You're basically making my point for me. The Queen of England is the theoretical owner of most of the land in all of Canada. Take a look at this map of Ontario, for example: https://mapsontheweb.zoom-maps.com/post/140865732363/crown-l... It doesn't make sense to compare or consider heads of states' wealth. They can't spend like a true billionaire and they have powers that billionaires do not. They can order the death…

> The Queen of England is the theoretical owner of most of the land in all of Canada.

No, the Queen of Canada is. Given the nature of the respective constitutional monarchies, the distinction is significant, even though those crowns are held by the same natural person.

> It doesn't make sense to compare or consider heads of states' wealth.

It doesn't make sense to treat the wealth held by a constitutional monarchy the same as personal wealth of the monarch, but with either absolute monarchies or heads of state who don't have any abstract claim on the wealth of the nation or state as such, those issues don't arise, and even with Constitutional monarchs the personal wealth of the monarch as distinct from that controlled by the State in the name of the monarch can be discussed with little problem.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#47
post #41

As someone who's been tracking Russian politics due to being born there some time ago, the recent wave of sanctions are starting to have a rather undesired effect. Roughly since 2008 (Georgian war), Russia has been actively cutting many economic ties that could have been used as a point of leverage. They have a knock-off debit card system [0], dedicated Internet censorship agency [1], and have been expelling Western…

> but I cannot envision the West doing it Give it a few weeks. Remember how Nord Stream 2 was untouchable just a month ago. If you consider the 7 stages of grief, the West is in 1-Shock or 2-Denial stage. 3-Anger is just starting.

The West is weak. It is used to solving problems on paper (2008 crisis, Pandemic-time money printing) and hoping that it will somehow pan out. The tolerance for getting out of your comfort zone is near zero. The politicians will toss out a few strong-worded U.N. resolutions and will hope that Putin gets bored, or their term expires before it gets any worse.

Except, it only works, as long as less spoiled people in less fortunate places are willing to assemble your smartphones, sew your jeans and operate the oil rigs for fraction of your wage. And these people will have much more willpower and commitment, and they may eventually realize that conquering the West could be more fun than serving it.

Not that I like it, just abstract detached thoughts.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#48
post #20

It's unknown how rich Vladimir Putin is exactly. It's suspected he may be the richest person on Earth with a net worth in excess of $200 billion however. Sanctions against Russia are completely ineffective because the US and the EU are unwilling to include things that would actually hurt Russia, namely access to the financial system (ie SWIFT), energy exports (because Germany in particular is dependent on Russian nat…

> So given no effective sanction options and no military options, the US and the EU should've realized the only way to defuse this situation was to negotiate. Yet Biden categorically ruled out the possibility of formally refusing to admit Ukraine to NATO, something that was never going to happen anyway. You undermine your own argument. Ukraine's admission was never going to happen anyway, and everyone knows it. Putin…

> The reality is far simpler: Putin wants the Ukraine personally. His own private reasons are irrelevant. He wants it. And he has the will and capability to take it. And so he is doing so.

This situation is anything but simple.

Example 1: Russia invading Ukraine is powerful evidence to any other country that they need to join NATO for protection, most notably Finland and Sweden.

This is somewhat similar to one of the many problems with the US invading Iraq. It told the rest of the world that the only way to gurantee their safety was to have nuclear weapons. Putin's move drives neutral parties to NATO.

Example 2: while the EU in particular is unwilling to hit Russian energy exports, that situation may change with prolonged Russian aggression.

Example 3: the Russian invasion of Ukraine is deeply unpopular in Russia. Thousands of Russian protestors have been arrested already.

Example 4: Ukraine is a country of ~44M people. Russia cannot possibly hope to hold it. The insurgency cost will be enormous. Attempting to hold Afghanistan in the 1980s had a massive cost for the USSR and was arguably a contributing factor in the USSR's downfall (along with many other factors to be fair). Even if Russia simply plans to install a pro-Russian regime, that's not that dissimilar to what happened in Afghanistan. Occupying Ukraine would probably take hundreds of thousands of troops on an indefinite basis and have a massive cost in resources and lives.

> Putin wants Ukraine. Negotiation of any kind was never going to prevent this invasion,

That's basically the "trying is the first step to failing" School of Diplomacy. There are two broad possiblities: either it could defuse the situation or it couldn't. If it doesn't, then there's no downside to trying. In fact you get to occupy the moral high ground of at least trying.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#49
post #43

As someone who's been tracking Russian politics due to being born there some time ago, the recent wave of sanctions are starting to have a rather undesired effect. Roughly since 2008 (Georgian war), Russia has been actively cutting many economic ties that could have been used as a point of leverage. They have a knock-off debit card system [0], dedicated Internet censorship agency [1], and have been expelling Western…

Please forward your suggestions to CIA. I am beginning to worry that they have run out of ideas.

Well, it's deeper than it seems. You cannot just start revoking random people's citizenship for being relatives of the loosely defined bad guys. That's the straight route to turning your own country into a 3rd-world dictatorship.

What you can do is tighten the anti-money-laundring laws, so that living in the West off money made in sketchy ways becomes harder, but there's a major conflict of interest here. A lot of the West's wealth is fueled by the dirty money flows from elsewhere, and cutting it off without inevitable side effects (e.g. real estate crash) is not an easy task.

Re: US Sanctions Vladimir Putin

#50

Can someone explain whether this has a meaningful effect on those that are targeted?

Short term? No. Longer term? Maybe. Enough pressure on those in power will erode Putin’ support base. Cut off enough of his wealth and he’ll have a harder time holding on to power.

In any case it won't stop him from continuing his anschluss of Ukraine at this very moment.
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