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Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

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Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#241

Post by sofixa »

cjbgkagh wrote: post #60
ledauphin wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it doesn't, but at some point you have to consider the possibility that Putin isn't sane or rational in the way you would hope the person in charge of a major part of the world's nuclear arsenal would be. And if he is not sane, then it would be equally insane for the west to keep giving into his demands, given that we cannot then expect him to stop making them at any foreseeable point. No one "wants" WW3, much lik…

He is entirely rational, it has been known since forever that Ukraine is the brightest of red lines and that Russia would respond in this way. You can’t pin this on crazy, pretty much anyone else from the Russian elite would have done the same thing. Given that the CIA predicted this back in 2008 I would image there would be no change to their assessment.

The invasion of Ukraine is anything but rational. There's simply no way that ends well for Russia without some enormous doses of wishful thinking and fairy dust. The majority of people of Ukraine won't accept a Russian installed puppet government, and would receive help from abroad, so how exactly does Putin intend on ruling by force a country with 40 million citizens most of whom don't want him to?

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#242

Post by stunt »

camhart wrote: post #54

Russia shouldn't be allowed to force decisions like this on any country. Let them join. We kicked the can down the road with Ukraine and look where that landed Ukraine. 2008 and 2014 we gave in and allowed Russia to do what they wanted. 2022 and Western countries are allowing it again. Its despicable. I don't want war. I don't want to go to war. But when someone approaches you and says "I own you" you either fight ba…

Replace Ukraine and Russia with Ireland and UK, and apply the same events that happened since 2000, you will end up with UK invading Ireland in 2022.

I think this lecture (2015) explains the situation very well https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#243

Post by sofixa »

sto_hristo wrote: post #191

So basically Russia said: We will murder you if you don something we don't like. This clearly calls for an economic sanction against .

Putin and his minister of foreign affairs are hardly "some random guy that brushed elbows with Putin once".

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#244

Post by LaMarseillaise »

phaistra wrote: post #231
jacquesm wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> whatabout Yes, that's what that's called.

Are you going to address his point?

Jacquesm demonstrated that there was no point, and therefore nothing to address.

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#246

Post by Animats »

laserdancepony wrote: post #237
Animats wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most European countries have surprisingly dinky armies today. Germany has only 60,000 troops for a population of 83 million. Norway has only 3,725. France has 118,000. The UK has 82,000. There hasn't been much for them to do in decades. That just changed. Sweden has 24,000 on active duty. Finland has about 21,000. Large for the size of the countries. Both have a draft. Switzerland has 120,000 troops on active duty, a…

I don't know where you got your numbers, but the german Bundeswehr has a total strength of about 185k and is limited by the two plus four treaty to a maximum strength of 370k. Way less than the 500k and up the old west german Bundeswehr had.

64,036 in the the army (Heer) only.

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#247

Post by [deleted] »

camhart wrote: post #54

Russia shouldn't be allowed to force decisions like this on any country. Let them join. We kicked the can down the road with Ukraine and look where that landed Ukraine. 2008 and 2014 we gave in and allowed Russia to do what they wanted. 2022 and Western countries are allowing it again. Its despicable. I don't want war. I don't want to go to war. But when someone approaches you and says "I own you" you either fight ba…

[deleted]

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#248

Post by FrenchAmerican »

usrme wrote: post #8

At this point is there anything substantive any country could do at all that wouldn't irritate Russia? It seems as if the powers that be have become so utterly delicate that even something as innocuous as Sweden joining NATO is deemed to be advancing far beyond the "proper" limits.

Consider Sweden's geography along coast of the Baltic Sea ; joining NATO would basically close this path to the Atlantic Ocean for the Russian Navy.

Well, at least if enough missiles and/or fighter jets are placed on its soil by NATO countries to effectively close the Baltic Sea in case of war.

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#249

Post by iostream24 »

pakitan wrote: post #186
hnarn wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The logic is that attacking a country that attempts to join a defensive alliance (Ukraine) underlines the undeniable necessity of that alliance existing in the first place. There would not be a point in joining Nato if Russia was a paper tiger, but they're working very hard to prove that they are not. They are painting a picture of themselves as violent, unpredictable and hostile to democratic values that we (Swedes)…

> defensive alliance Yeah, right. Remind me please who was NATO defending against during the military operation in Libya? Iraq? Regarding the rest of your arguments, whether you want to support joining NATO is your own business. I'm just looking at it from a game theory perspective. As far as I remember, so far there haven't been threats from Russia against Sweden. Now you want to join and there is a threat. You may…

The reality is that swift decisive action in a coordinated fashion is the only way to stop an aggressor that suggest that everyone else needs to also lie down and shut up or they will get a thrashing too. Game theory says “on three JUMP HIM!”

Multiple entities need to act with force in non economic ways that render collective bullying impossible.

Game theory says “gang up now instead of letting your strongest get picked off first and your collective force diminished “

The old “first they came for the xyz but I wasn’t an xyz so I didn’t say anything “ story.

Or surely Ukraine will not be the last victim.

Putin has apparently and obviously thrown all caution and concern for domestic approval etc to the wind. What is his rush? He’s moving quickly. Best to act now.

Nuclear war is a multifaceted weapon, hence the ‘M’ in MAD

it’s not automatic or known what the trigger threshold is for this, and engagement has indeed occurred between nuclear powers is recent times…

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#250

Post by alkonaut »

belter wrote: post #5

As I wrote in another thread today, current EU and US leaders are asleep at the wheel. We have a different dynamic. Talking about sanctions looks almost pathetic. The analogy here is, you live in a community and one of your neighbors just lost it completely and is shooting and shelling another neighbor. Not to raise the hostilities...you scream at him he wont be invited anymore for the Christmas party and you will co…

Nord Stream 2 being cancelled sounded far fetched. Until suddenly it wasn’t. Sanctioning too Ru heads of state was also unexpected but happened today. Banning Russia from SWIFT was called a “nuclear option” and seemed impossible due to Italy and Germany being against it. That was this morning and this evening it’s already decided.

There was talk about the Refugee crisis once again showing division and lack of solidarity in the EU. Instead states have opened their borders completely.

If anything, the EU leadership I think looks like it’s showing a very uncharacteristic decisiveness and speed.

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