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Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

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Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#161

Post by jopsen »

sandworm101 wrote: post #68

I don't understand why Russia, or anyone else, thinks that Ukraine was anywhere near joining NATO. Ukraine had bits of it that were occupied by Russia, specifically Crimea. There was no way Ukraine would have been allowed to join under such circumstances because such occupations would have immediately triggered Article 5. Letting Ukraine into NATO would be tantamount to declaring war on Russia. It was never a real op…

Spot on, Ukraine wouldn't have joined NATO until their border disputes was resolved. So probably not anytime the next 20-30 years.

Demands by Russia were disingenuous, because they would never have been honored. And I doubt honoring them wouldn't have stopped anything.

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#163

Post by jacquesm »

anonyfox wrote: post #66

As a German I was today years old when I learned that sweden isnt part of the nato already … like the current secretary even sounds swedish by name … whelp Edit: really don’t want to sound ignorant here, just that while growing up and traveling around Central Europe there was a strong belief that we‘re all in the same boat and I even remember maps showing all countries (except Switzerland) in shades of „blue“ but … I…

Just in case: Neither is Switzerland.

https://www.mappr.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/image-1.jpeg

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#164

Post by dragonwriter »

speeder wrote: post #89
sandworm101 wrote: post #68

I don't understand why Russia, or anyone else, thinks that Ukraine was anywhere near joining NATO. Ukraine had bits of it that were occupied by Russia, specifically Crimea. There was no way Ukraine would have been allowed to join under such circumstances because such occupations would have immediately triggered Article 5. Letting Ukraine into NATO would be tantamount to declaring war on Russia. It was never a real op…

Ukraine added that they will join NATO to their constitution, and in the past months NATO started to ramp up the amount of NATO weaponry in or near Ukraine. Russia reaction is basically the reaction of anyone cornered, something Sun Tzu warned about, if someone is cornered they will fight back hard because they can't retreat, they can only go forward, through whoever is cornering them.

> Ukraine added that they will join NATO to their constitution, and in the past months NATO started to ramp up the amount of NATO weaponry in or near Ukraine.

Ukraine has been bulking up their army with help from various, especially NATO, countries since Russian invaded, conquered, and purportedly annexed a big part of their country in 2014 (and assisted with the occupation by anti-government forces of other parts) and they didn't have the capacity for meaningful, much less successful, resistance.

The Ukrainian military buildup was a situation of Russia’s own making.

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#165

Post by iso1631 »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #26
prettygood wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very delicate situation that can't be resolved by just sending troops and fighting. Neither the US nor Europe wants to have another world war. Definitely not now nuclear weapons are much more powerful.

I'm pretty sure that we're in World War III. We're just trying to pretend that we're not. We're at least at the buildup to it.

The parallels with ww2 are far too easy to draw - the annexation, the failed appeasement attempt, the invasion.

The German invasion of Poland tends to be counted as the "start" of ww2, but the militarisation of the Rhineland, annexation of Austria, and invasion of Czechoslovakia all came first on that front. The global reach was due to European colonies abroad (especially in Africa).

The Japanese invasion of China also predated the start of war in Europe, but the Pacific war doesn't count as starting until the attacks on Hawaii, Philipeenes, Malaya/Singapore, Hong Kong etc in 1941.

Perhaps the next move is Sweden+Finland joining Nato (because clearly not being part of Nato is risky). Either way, perhaps then Russia invades the Baltics (or maybe "Belarus" does for deniability?), triggering wars all along the border. Throw in China using the opportunity to attack Taiwan while America is busy elsewhere, North Korea rolling into South Korea, and various local civil wars (probably instigated by China) in South America to distract the US further, then throw a wildcard like Syria taking a pop at Israel, and it rapidly escalates into a World War.

Historians (if any survive) may lump Crimea, Ukraine, and even places like Georgia, as the "pre-war" battles, it's arguable when local wars get enough to be deemed to be a "World War".

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#166

Post by tablespoon »

Animats wrote: post #116
zucked wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NATO has not been viewed favorably in recent years, and some of it is for good reason. As much as I dislike Trump, he is right that many NATO members don't contribute their fair share. Many countries, even wealthy, highly developed ones, are missing the 2% target by a wide margin. On the name and shame highlight reel is: Norway, Germany, The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, and the list goes on. I suspect we will se…

Most European countries have surprisingly dinky armies today. Germany has only 60,000 troops for a population of 83 million. Norway has only 3,725. France has 118,000. The UK has 82,000. There hasn't been much for them to do in decades. That just changed. Sweden has 24,000 on active duty. Finland has about 21,000. Large for the size of the countries. Both have a draft. Switzerland has 120,000 troops on active duty, a…

> Sweden has 24,000 on active duty. Finland has about 21,000. Large for the size of the countries. Both have a draft. Switzerland has 120,000 troops on active duty, a draft, and a large, regularly exercised reserve, for a country with only 8 million people. All are outside NATO and prepared for self-defense.

I think active duty numbers can be misleading, since I believe many countries rely on military reserve forces, especially ones with smaller populations, e.g.:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_Defence_Forces#Militar...:

> At the completion of the service, the conscripts receive a reserve military rank of private, lance corporal, corporal, sergeant or second lieutenant, depending on their training and accomplishments.[24] After their military service, the conscripts are placed in reserve until the end of their 50th or 60th living year, depending on their military rank. During their time in reserve, the reservists are liable to participate in military refresher exercises for a total of 40, 75 or 100 days, depending on their military rank. In addition, all reservists are liable for activation in a situation where the military threat against Finland has seriously increased, in full or partial mobilization or in a large-scale disaster or a virulent epidemic. The males who do not belong to the reserve may only be activated in case of full mobilization, and those rank-and-file personnel who have fulfilled 50 years of age only with a specific parliamentary decision.[25]

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#167

Post by belter »

jacquesm wrote: post #151
belter wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technically, if there were attacked this evening, nobody in the US or EU would come to help them. They would be AND are in the same situation as Ukraine.

You may be right about the US, but you are probably wrong about the EU.

Everybody would wish them well, argue they have a strong army and can resist the Russian army, but no sorry, no Spanish or German or French troops dying for Finland or Sweden any time soon. They better hurry up.

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#168

Post by jacquesm »

DeWilde wrote: post #124
BuckRogers wrote: post #36

I'm ashamed at our (the USA's) response. We have no choice here. When will this stop? Do we allow mutually assured destruction be used to have Putin march his troops into our beloved nation too? What about Georgia, Bosnia, Finland, Sweden? The only option, better done now than later is to ready, arm and prepare all our nuclear warheads, point them at Moscow, and then send our forces into Ukraine, repelling the Russia…

Somebody is enthusiastic about dying in a nuclear war.

In a nuclear war his chances are just as good as yours.

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#169

Post by foogazi »

belter wrote: post #120
sharken wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an empty threat from Putin, he may be close to a madman but he is not stupid. Attacking NATO will mean his removal from power, most likely by someone within his own ranks. If Sweden or Finland wants in, then NATO should comply as fast as possible.

Technically, if there were attacked this evening, nobody in the US or EU would come to help them. They would be AND are in the same situation as Ukraine.

Do Sweden or Finland have any mutual defense agreements themselves or with other countries (Norway?) - or is NATO the only club in Europe ?

Re: Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns

#170

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

jopsen wrote: post #99
belter wrote: post #5

As I wrote in another thread today, current EU and US leaders are asleep at the wheel. We have a different dynamic. Talking about sanctions looks almost pathetic. The analogy here is, you live in a community and one of your neighbors just lost it completely and is shooting and shelling another neighbor. Not to raise the hostilities...you scream at him he wont be invited anymore for the Christmas party and you will co…

> ... current EU and US leaders are asleep at the wheel. We have a different dynamic. Talking about sanctions looks almost pathetic. Yes, but NATO clearly stating that they wouldn't intervene in Ukraine probably made events more predictable. Reducing the risk of escalation, and miscalculation. Leaving Ukraine to fight on its own wasn't nice. But it's probably best NATO doesn't bluff too much. Sanctions is probably no…

If I were completely cynical and amoral I'd use Ukraine as a quagmire trap. Take direct intervention off the table, beef up the defences enough to cause a problem, and wait for the Russians to take the bait.

Then when Russia is trapped in a continuing guerilla war which is generating huge economic consequences and negative PR at home and abroad, wait for the regime change in Russia to happen spontaneously.

It's a risky strategy given nukes, but not entirely unimaginable as realpolitik.

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