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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

reuters.com

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#831

Post by w0de0 »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

> I don't know that NATO has the guts to give Putin that bloody nose.

Your analysis seems rational in this moment. But: the policy and personality of a democracy is liable change rapidly and radically in a way no single actor ever would or could. Autocrats often do not understand this, and make the same assumptions you have.

The scenario you describe would raise such apocalyptic outrage in America and Europe that war without thought of consequence would likely ensue.

You simply cannot extrapolate future behavior of complex democracies from current behavior as you would an individual. The concern you laid out in your post is relevant: once enough citizens arrive at a similar opinion, policy can rapidly shift.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#832

Post by avh02 »

riku_iki wrote: post #583
sgjohnson wrote: post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Turkey (a NATO member) “liquidated” a couple of Russian fighter jets when they violated Turkey’s airspace during their Syrian assault.[0] So it’s not a stretch to think that once a Russian tank would cross into Poland it would be met with immediate lethal force. [0] https://news.yahoo.com/downing-russia-jet-stab-back-putin-13...

> “liquidated” a couple of Russian fighter jets It was one jet, and it wasn't fighter jet, but assault jet, it didn't carry any AA missiles and couldn't defend himself.

Didn't matter, it violated airspace.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#833

Post by Thorrez »

cypherpunks01 wrote: post #468
bragr wrote: post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be an awkward claim considering Ukraine _had_ nuclear weapons and gave them up to Russia in the 90s for guarantees about Ukraine's territorial integrity. Obviously that didn't work so well for Ukraine now

I believe they were destroyed, not given over to Russia?

Hmm, various websites disagree. I would guess some were given to Russia and some were destroyed with the uranium being kept for other purposes.

Gave to Russia:

> Ukraine handed all its nuclear weapons to Russia

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraines-nuclear-lesson-with...

> Ukraine have acceded to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as non-nuclear states and are now transferring Soviet missiles and warheads to Russia for dismantlement on a strict schedule.

https://www.stimson.org/1995/politics-nuclear-renunciation-c...

>The former Soviet Republics where nuclear weapons had been based, namely Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, transferred those weapons to Russia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferatio...

> effectively abandoning their nuclear arsenal to Russia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...

> In May 1996, Ukraine saw the last of its nuclear arms transported back to Russia.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/05/science/ukraine-nuclear-w...

> Ukraine transferred its last 40 nuclear warheads to Russia

> Most tactical nuclear weapons were transferred from Ukraine to Russia.

https://www.rferl.org/a/the-destruction-of-ukraines-nuclear-...

> All nuclear weapons were removed to Russia

https://www.nti.org/countries/ukraine/

Destroyed:

> Ukraine gave up a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons left over by the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, and used the fuel from its blended-down warheads to drive its nuclear power plants.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/us/politics/putin-ukraine...

> In 1994 Ukraine agreed to destroy the weapons

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine

> Ukrainian workers cut an air-to-ground X-22 cruise missile into pieces

https://www.rferl.org/a/the-destruction-of-ukraines-nuclear-...

> they had to destroy all of their nuclear weapons.

https://historyofyesterday.com/did-ukraine-actually-get-rid-...

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#834

Post by nradov »

anamax wrote: post #775
afterburner wrote: post #763

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NATO is an agreement to initiate MAD if needed. That's the point of NATO.

Do you really think that the US will nuke Russia to protect Poland or Germany?

If Russia uses nuclear weapons first in a European war then yes. But the targets would probably be Russian forces in or approaching Poland or Germany rather than mainland Russia itself.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#835

Post by kaba0 »

jonyt wrote: post #827

I think the commenters here relying on a more robust response if Putin invades a NATO country are being overly optimistic. Let's be honest with ourselves and recognize that without the US NATO is no match for Russia. Fragmented, with small and outdated armed forces, the Russian army would quickly roll over any resistance. Can you imagine a Republican president committing US troops to the defence of Lithuania in the c…

France and Turkey has quite the army just by themselves and they are both NATO members. I wouldn’t be as pessimistic.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#836

Post by berkes »

deutschewelle wrote: post #741
nelblu wrote: post #545

This war makes me sick and very sad. It reminds me of the pale blue dot quote by Sagan : "Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that, in glory and triumph, they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot.". https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wupToqz1e2g

Quoted post unavailable.

Strange strategy. To take a country, essentially swapping one border of a poorly functioning state with six new borders. Borders with countries that are EU members, NATO members and in most cases much stronger.

Why exchange one weak border with six much stronger ones?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#837

Post by arc-in-space »

Johnny555 wrote: post #766
kidme5 wrote: post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually interception happens at the boost phase (upon launch) with these systems, so decoys are not possible unless you literally launch multiple rockets.

That seems like a problem in itself, it needs to be on a hair trigger to fire soon enough to catch a weapon soon after launch. Sure would be bad to accidentally shoot down an unannounced manned rocket launch after the software thought it was a nuclear launch.

Well, I think the equilibrium here is that, all civilian rocket launches should be announced, not the worst outcome. Isn't this already the case?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#838

Post by rasz »

ahthat wrote: post #528
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

Official NATO stance, as President Biden has repeatedly said, its to defend EVERY INCH of NATO territory - so if Russia parked one tank inside of the Polish border, all of NATO is at war with Russia. If NATO does not respond with force, or escalate and withdraws because of MAD, then it loses all credibility. The question is: Can belligerent nuclear armed nations really hold the rest of the world hostage? At some poin…

Poland had same security warranties in 1939. France was supposed to attack Germany the moment Poland was invaded. You might want to read up on what actually happened.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#839

Post by dtx1 »

hef19898 wrote: post #758
dtx1 wrote: post #752

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And they now learned what a serious naive mistake that was. As a german I am ashamed that we did not accept frances offer of a shared nuclear arsenal when we could. We cowardly hide under the umbrella of french nuclear deterrence, yet chose not to get our hands dirty and take the responsibility on ourselves

We do have US nukes stationed in Germany for that very reason. rather old tech nukes, but still. This gives Germany a seat at the NATO table about nuclear strategy. If push comes to shove, German Tornado fighter jets are going to carry those nukes into combat.

Just another cowardly work around. If we want to live under the protection of weapons of mass destruction and the means of a global nuclear holocaust than we should take on that responsibility ourselves instead of delegating it to the US, Britain and France.
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