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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

reuters.com

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#801

Post by grayfaced »

afterburner wrote: post #763
markdown wrote: post #718

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to have missed the point. > If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily And? They can't actually respond militarily because MAD. NATO is useless if the enemy knows you won't initiate MAD, but they can (democracy vs dictatorship).

NATO is an agreement to initiate MAD if needed. That's the point of NATO.

That is incorrect. NATO policy is "no-first use" for nuclear weapons. The member countries individually can make decision. Nothing in NATO mandates use of nuclear weapons, just that they join in common defense.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#802

Post by thebradbain »

anamax wrote: post #775
afterburner wrote: post #763

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NATO is an agreement to initiate MAD if needed. That's the point of NATO.

Do you really think that the US will nuke Russia to protect Poland or Germany?

Germany is virtually the sole power keeping the EU from collapsing on itself economically geographically and politically, even if France is the one with the nuclear arsenal.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#803

Post by [deleted] »

afterburner wrote: post #763
markdown wrote: post #718

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to have missed the point. > If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily And? They can't actually respond militarily because MAD. NATO is useless if the enemy knows you won't initiate MAD, but they can (democracy vs dictatorship).

NATO is an agreement to initiate MAD if needed. That's the point of NATO.

[deleted]

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#804

Post by dmitriid »

pvorb wrote: post #728
beloch wrote: post #703

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

Since joining NATO is a process rather than will happen immediately, this is not really an option. This caused the mess the Ukraine is in in the first place. Putin is really clear that he won't tolerate NATO to expand to any more direct neighbors.

> Putin is really clear that he won't tolerate NATO to expand to any more direct neighbors.

And so he starts the invasion which will effectively push every bordering country into running towards NATO?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#805

Post by avh02 »

asdff wrote: post #674
aksss wrote: post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I may get downvoted into oblivion for saying this, but -- I think it's wishful thinking to imagine soldiers will make the 'right' decision when the call comes. During the Tiananmen Square debacle/massacre, interviews with people there indicate that many/most never imagined the "people's" army would act against them - they were considered on the same side. Yet act against them they did. Similarly, I think you see some…

A group of Russian soldiers in Ukraine has already surrendered because this was more than what they signed up for.

Source?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#806

Post by nopenopenopeno »

markdown wrote: post #718
beloch wrote: post #703

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

You seem to have missed the point. > If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily And? They can't actually respond militarily because MAD. NATO is useless if the enemy knows you won't initiate MAD, but they can (democracy vs dictatorship).

What does “democracy” have to do with anything? If Biden doesn’t get reelected, it’s not going to be due to anything he does to Russia.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#807

Post by avh02 »

tiahura wrote: post #547
lordnacho wrote: post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's this concept in game theory that it's sometimes worth it to hurt yourself in order to hurt an uncooperative player. If you are always thinking "how do I minimize harm to myself" you get salamied to death. Same as in a poker game, you can't fold every time someone raises big, just because you don't know which times he actually has good cards. If you do he ends up with all your chips. Other thing is about MAD.…

“ it's actually happened that missiles looked like they were in the air, and a Soviet guy decided it was best not to send missiles back” Vlad Posner fairly recently made the point that because of strong anti-America sentiment in Russia, he is worried that this time the guy isn’t going to be as skeptical of the flashing light and is just going to hit the button.

And soldiers in the USSR were American sympathizers?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#808

Post by matkoniecz »

deutschewelle wrote: post #741
nelblu wrote: post #545

This war makes me sick and very sad. It reminds me of the pale blue dot quote by Sagan : "Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that, in glory and triumph, they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot.". https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wupToqz1e2g

Quoted post unavailable.

> The reason being, purely from a military strategic thinking: Moscow simply cannot afford to have a vulnerable flank from the wide open fields of Ukraine and Belarus.

Are you sure? What is the source of that belief? Russians? The same Russians that repeatedly claimed that Ukraine will not be invaded?

They have nukes. Even if Germany would get back to WW II levels of aggression and army size then invading Russia would work even less than in WW II.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#809

Post by arez »

beloch wrote: post #703
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

Ukraine and US is a different story then Tawain and US. For Taiwan the US promised to protect it from any China intervention, so they will help. Nobody gave these promises to Ukraine

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#810

Post by arisAlexis »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #480
sgjohnson wrote: post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Turkey (a NATO member) “liquidated” a couple of Russian fighter jets when they violated Turkey’s airspace during their Syrian assault.[0] So it’s not a stretch to think that once a Russian tank would cross into Poland it would be met with immediate lethal force. [0] https://news.yahoo.com/downing-russia-jet-stab-back-putin-13...

Thanks for this, this is a good data point for NATO action. It's a little different in that it seems more accidental than intentional though.

Wasn't a NATO action. Was a split second decision by Erdoga so he can play his power games.
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