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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

reuters.com

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#661

Post by mrep »

heartbreak wrote: post #165
netsharc wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Feels like until 5AM local this morning we all thought he'd never do a full invasion of Ukraine either... But in general I'd agree with you. On the other hand, who and literally what army would stop them?

> Who and literally what army would stop them? Among several others, the United States military. Which, contrary to claims made elsewhere in this thread, is a pretty formidable defensive force. In fact, it even has aircraft carriers that can move under their own power.

Yeah, Biden vowed to defend ‘Every Inch’ of NATO Territory. Any Russian soldier unfortunate to step onto NATO soil is going to get obliterated by the US military.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#662

Post by csee »

baybal2 wrote: post #568
trashtester wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has a bit more than a couple of nukes, as does the US. I believe I've seen the numbers indicate that the present arsenals that are currently in service are too small to erase humanity, but they are definitely big enough to cause hundreds of millions to a few billions of deaths. If we consider the situation of just 1-2 warheads are used in a conflict, I think it really hard to gauge the effect on public percept…

The cold war high side estimate was 50M if the West lets USSR to expend the whole of its arsenal on USA standing, doing nothing. Recent figures I read were 20M-40M for worst case scenarios. Realistically, a coordinated all in launch is ~1000 warheads, with 400 of them megaton scale in R36 MIRVs from West Siberia. First strike is only possible with computerised launch infrastructure operational. Beheading the command…

Why would only 20-40M die after 1000 nukes?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#663

Post by selimthegrim »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #498
mvc wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we wait until they're doing this in Poland? I think I've seen this one before. Doesn't end well for anyone involved. Better to hit an enemy when they're not expecting it.

I don't mean to pick on you in particular, but the popular narrative pretty severely misunderstands what was so controversial about pre-WWII appeasement. The problem isn't that Chamberlain tried to avoid going to war or applied insufficient sanctions to prevent Hitler from conquering the Sudetenland - he approved of it, personally flying to Germany to give him permission, and then talking afterwards about how Hitler'…

My impression is that Chamberlain was rearming as well, he just didn't publicize it.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#664

Post by valzam »

rob74 wrote: post #434
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

Or, as Sting once sang, "I hope the Russians love their children too" - in this case, one particular Russian...

Also this particular russians child lives anonymously somewhere in western europe...

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#665

Post by csee »

adolph wrote: post #620
lordnacho wrote: post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's this concept in game theory that it's sometimes worth it to hurt yourself in order to hurt an uncooperative player. If you are always thinking "how do I minimize harm to myself" you get salamied to death. Same as in a poker game, you can't fold every time someone raises big, just because you don't know which times he actually has good cards. If you do he ends up with all your chips. Other thing is about MAD.…

> sometimes worth it to hurt yourself in order to hurt an uncooperative player. Why has the Ukraine not blown the gas lines?

It'd hurt Europe far more than Russia in the short term. Russia would lose revenue but they have buffer reserves so it'd do little to hamper them in the short term. But Europe isn't prepared for it and it'd be a huge shock.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#666

Post by phs318u »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

If NATO has a purpose besides mutual defence against existential threats to member states, then I don’t know what it is. Maybe it’s purpose is to encircle Russia. This is what Putin believes. If that’s true then surely the price of realising that purpose is to make good on the promise the mutual defence. Quid pro quo. If there is no purpose - which in the absence of action seems likely - then the only logical step is to disband NATO, giving Putin what he wants.

In my view NATO has to absolutely step up and send forces en masse to Poland at the very least. Appeasing bullies never ends well.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#667

Post by asdff »

csee wrote: post #659
kodah wrote: post #519

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I think we are well past the point of nuclear armaments. I think, if there is war, it'll be a ground and air war that's like a sophisticated yet familiar chess game and a side war that is mostly anti-war propaganda, pro-Russia propaganda, misinformation, and attacks on IOT and public infrastructure that exhaust the citizenry out of watching the fighting.

Then when Putin starts losing and faces a coup from disgruntled people at home? You sure that megalomaniac won't decide to go nuclear when pushed into a corner?

One would hope that if the people in the streets are protesting then higher ups in the russian state would also be unlikely to go down with Putin. Just like Hitler's most trusted generals readily surrendering to advancing allies to ensure favorable terms for their soldiers.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#668

Post by AlexCoventry »

tiahura wrote: post #547
lordnacho wrote: post #477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's this concept in game theory that it's sometimes worth it to hurt yourself in order to hurt an uncooperative player. If you are always thinking "how do I minimize harm to myself" you get salamied to death. Same as in a poker game, you can't fold every time someone raises big, just because you don't know which times he actually has good cards. If you do he ends up with all your chips. Other thing is about MAD.…

“ it's actually happened that missiles looked like they were in the air, and a Soviet guy decided it was best not to send missiles back” Vlad Posner fairly recently made the point that because of strong anti-America sentiment in Russia, he is worried that this time the guy isn’t going to be as skeptical of the flashing light and is just going to hit the button.

Pozner is clearly a Russian-Federation sympathizer, and probably a Russian-Federation propagandist, despite his claims to the contrary. His characterization of "not one inch Eastward" is extremely misleading, for instance.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#669

Post by bigcat123 »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

No post body was provided.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#670

Post by queuebert »

nelblu wrote: post #545

This war makes me sick and very sad. It reminds me of the pale blue dot quote by Sagan : "Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that, in glory and triumph, they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot.". https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wupToqz1e2g

I feel like humanity has gotten nowhere in my lifetime. I grew up watching Star Trek and was very optimistic about the future, but that has been dashed.
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