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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

reuters.com

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#601

Post by throwaway2037 »

sidewndr46 wrote: post #403
adrr wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US, France and UK have guaranteed that no country will ever dismantle their nukes for a piece of paper. This will make the world much more dangerous with Iran pursing nukes which will be shortly followed by Saudi Arabia. North Korea will never disarm. Proliferation will continue and technology advancements will make it easier for countries to acquire nukes.

While way off topic, why would Saudi Arabia need nuclear weapons? My understanding is they are pretty closely allied with Pakistan, a known nuclear state.

If Iran builds a nuclear weapon, it may threaten Saudi Arabia. They already have hostile relations today. It would get worse if Iran had nuclear weapons. Also, Saudi Arabia is home to the most important Islamic religious sites in the world: Mecca and Medina. Yes, I have also ready "security analysis" that claims Pakistan will defend Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons if there are serious threats to Mecca and Medina.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#602

Post by w0de0 »

injb wrote: post #78

I think this is mainly a psychological move. It has people talking about nuclear fallout, radiation etc. That's the point.

Ah, no, I believe it's primarily a purely tactical advance. Chernobyl is directly in the Russian army's shortest path of advance on Kyiv.

If it turns out they don't try to take Kyiv, I stand corrected.

But practical necessity has certainly not stopped the Russians from also trying an infowar attack based on Chernobyl's totemic power, as you say.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#603

Post by bb88 »

kidme5 wrote: post #598
bb88 wrote: post #591

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's viable for a couple of reasons unless the tech has changed significantly. One of the traditional decoys of an ICBM are basically launching a bunch of decoy mylar balloons with the warhead in one as well. The last round of interceptors couldn't figure out which of the balloons was the actual warhead. Then the government made the results secret. Worse now is the hypersonic weapons which won't have…

Actually interception happens at the boost phase (upon launch) with these systems, so decoys are not possible unless you literally launch multiple rockets.

You mean the new systems? THAAD is re-entry or terminal phase. And decoys still exist in the midcourse phase.

Wikipedia's definitions are what I understand about it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_defense#Mid-course_pha...

With boost phase you have around 180 seconds to see it and to react to it.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#604

Post by c3534l »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

It strangely incentivises nuclear proliferation. If Ukraine were nuclear, they would have been safe

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#605

Post by JabavuAdams »

One thing to remember in all of these assessments is that Russia has the GDP of Canada, with almost 5x the population. Okay, they have lots of nukes, but maintaining and securing those are very expensive. Russia in 2022 is not the USSR of the '80s. It is not the Germany of the late '30s. They cannot take and hold Ukraine with the forces they've deployed, against an ongoing insurgency. Putin cannot cross the border into a NATO member and hope to survive. He knows this.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#607

Post by adrr »

sidewndr46 wrote: post #403
adrr wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US, France and UK have guaranteed that no country will ever dismantle their nukes for a piece of paper. This will make the world much more dangerous with Iran pursing nukes which will be shortly followed by Saudi Arabia. North Korea will never disarm. Proliferation will continue and technology advancements will make it easier for countries to acquire nukes.

While way off topic, why would Saudi Arabia need nuclear weapons? My understanding is they are pretty closely allied with Pakistan, a known nuclear state.

Saudi funded the Pakistan nuclear program.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Saudi_Arabi....

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#608

Post by pdabbadabba »

Aeolun wrote: post #524
pdabbadabba wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still not very specific. Or correct, as far as I can see. Here is the text of the memorandum: https://web.archive.org/web/20170312052208/http://www.cfr.or... Can you point us to the provision that you claim the U.S./Europe have violated? It is only about 1-2 pages long, so I don't think this is too much to ask.

Ah, but the thing is. They haven't violated the letter of the agreement. What they have violated is the spirit . This could of course be blamed in Ukraine for not rejecting it at the time.

And what do you suppose this "spirit" to be? And what do you base it on? What should the U..S./Europe have done differently?

Meanwhile, I'll just note that it seems perverse, to say the least, to focus on hand wavy, alleged U.S./European violations of the "spirit" of the memorandum while Russia is literally dropping bombs on Kiev.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#609

Post by perilunar »

thelittleone wrote: post #595
davorb wrote: post #515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine has 200k soldiers. But most of them are grunts with rifles. Russia has all kinds of equipment and combined arms. You can't really compare the two.

certainly no comparison in a conventional war. Ukraine could be as costly to Putin as Afghanistan was to the US.

Ukraine could also be as costly to Putin as Afghanistan was to the USSR.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#610

Post by kidme5 »

bb88 wrote: post #603
kidme5 wrote: post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually interception happens at the boost phase (upon launch) with these systems, so decoys are not possible unless you literally launch multiple rockets.

You mean the new systems? THAAD is re-entry or terminal phase. And decoys still exist in the midcourse phase. Wikipedia's definitions are what I understand about it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_defense#Mid-course_pha... With boost phase you have around 180 seconds to see it and to react to it.

No, space-based.. Like Brilliant Pebbles. It's why Space Force is a big deal.
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