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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

reuters.com

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#461

Post by 988747 »

brabel wrote: post #220
hwers wrote: post #21

I can't really tell what's going on here. Is the EU and America supposed to be helping out but it's all promises without real counter attacks? Is this just the calm before the storm as russia places their troops in the right spots while everyone looks on? Anyone who's smarter than me who could enlighten me?

It's interesting that people think that when an enemy country (as most people in the west think of Russia) attacks a neutral country (after endless warnings and the ocupation of a sizable part of its territory several years prior, so it's not like this came out of the blue), that they should intervene as if they were the world police who decides who can attack who. Or some kind of righteous peace force who is above i…

>> Or some kind of righteous peace force who is above it all, that can attack anyone who attacks anyone else, not seeing the irony in their position of attacking others who do something they don't like.

It's not about attacking someone who "do something we don't like" it's about Russia clearly breaking international laws, and behaving like an asshole. No irony here. If we can police individual citizens within a country, why not police the countries themselves?

>> no one ever wins a full-scale war like that. Everyone loses, some just lose a bit less than the others...

You have to decide which do you value more: your freedom or your life. And if you answer "my life" then be prepared to be a slave for the rest of it.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#462

Post by jskrablin »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

MAD works both ways. And some European countries (like the above mentioned France) have nuclear weapons. So I don't think Putin would make it to the French coastline easily.

Ukraine should have made use of the material from the Chernobyl power plant while it had the chance. A threat of dirty bomb being delivered to Moscow would have stopped Putin. I guess their politicians are too naive and didn't consider this an option. Facing an overwhelming military power you need to improvise. Certainly Putin thought of this option hence he took the control ot the Chernobyl.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#463

Post by dudeinhawaii »

danso wrote: post #449
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

Sorry, your hypothetical is just too far detached from reality to debate — you really think Russia in 2022 is remotely strong enough to sweep across Europe, and the only thing stopping that ambition is fear of MAD? Huh? > I don't know that NATO has the guts to give Putin that bloody nose. Again…what? Based on NATO’s military inaction re: Ukraine, you’ve concluded that NATO will also do nothing if Russia were to actua…

The (exaggerated) scenario is less of an attack but thought exercise on where the line for taking action lies. I went with belligerent actions over attack or small land grabs without casualties. Escalation from NATO let's say is "NATO declares war on Russia for violating sovereignty of Poland". Next? Will NATO liquidate Russian tank columns? As long as I've been alive, neither US nor NATO have ever actively engaged a nuclear state. I think stating "NATO reacts collectively" is kind of hand-waving the reality of engaging a nuclear super-power in any kind of military engagement. It's always been a handle-with-care situation.

And no, I don't think Putin is going to try to conquer Europe (at least I hope he's not that mad). I just wonder where the line for action is and whether it's "touching NATO soil" as you imply or something much more vague and flexible once the prospect of actual war is real.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#464

Post by xuki »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

Even if Russia nuke a Ukraine city tomorrow I don’t think the West would get involved directly. Do you really want to fight a mad man who already used a nuke once?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#465

Post by ethbr0 »

throw10920 wrote: post #423
ethbr0 wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China invading Taiwan at some point in the future And that's the perspective this should be viewed from. The US may not have a firm interest in Ukraine. The US has a fairly firm interest in Taiwan. The US has a serious interest in Korea, Japan, and the countries bordering the South China Sea. You have to strongly and unconditionally support international order re: Ukraine, so that Xi takes away the right message.

> The US has a fairly firm interest in Taiwan. Why only "fairly firm"? I've heard arguments that if Taiwan is invaded and TSMC falls under PRC control, then the US faces massive chip shortages for years (possibly leading to riots and a destabilized government), and those seem plausible to me.

Because previous process nodes are alternatives. The world doesn't stop. It just stops getting better, and there's a lot of pain as supply chains readjust to available capacity and retarget parts.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#466

Post by sgjohnson »

rl3 wrote: post #459
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

> I don't know that NATO has the guts to give Putin that bloody nose. In 2018 during the course of a defensive action, the U.S. military massacred quite a few Russians.[0][1] Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Yeah, there's much more care and hesitation involved when the consequences are full-scale war, but nonetheless you'd better believe NATO would respond strong, including taking MAD right up to the line. It wa…

> In 2018 during the course of a defensive action, the U.S. military massacred quite a few Russians.

Mercenaries don’t really count.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#467

Post by godmode2019 »

godmode2019 wrote: post #288
scyzoryk_xyz wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also a great news bullet point in the information war. "Russian forces taking Chernobyl" sounds much more familiar and much more terrifying than "Russian forces taking Chernihiv region" to all of us unfamiliar with the country. Even if strategically realistically it's the latter that is more important than the former.

It also has the following affect: """Don't the Russians already own Chernobyl? I guess it must not be in Russia. I saw a movie and I think they were speaking Russian. Wow they must be crazy actually entering a radiation zone, won't half of the troops die from exposure. I wouldn't want my son fighting those lunatics."""

Not sure why people are down voting maybe they didn't understand the comment. It was to represent the thoughts of the general western public.

99% of normal people don't know anything about the world. Text inside quotes is how normal people think when they hear Russian forces have captured Chernobyl.

Invasion aside, capturing Chernobyl is good PR. When most people think Chernobyl is already in Russia and most people think going there is instant death.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#468

Post by cypherpunks01 »

bragr wrote: post #433
rad_gruchalski wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but somebody has to be in control and responsible for this site to ensure, among other things, no terrorists make off with radioactive material Please… Russians will just use it for their propaganda as a support to the claim that Ukraine was working on nuclear weapons.

That would be an awkward claim considering Ukraine _had_ nuclear weapons and gave them up to Russia in the 90s for guarantees about Ukraine's territorial integrity. Obviously that didn't work so well for Ukraine now

I believe they were destroyed, not given over to Russia?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#469

Post by sgjohnson »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #463
danso wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, your hypothetical is just too far detached from reality to debate — you really think Russia in 2022 is remotely strong enough to sweep across Europe, and the only thing stopping that ambition is fear of MAD? Huh? > I don't know that NATO has the guts to give Putin that bloody nose. Again…what? Based on NATO’s military inaction re: Ukraine, you’ve concluded that NATO will also do nothing if Russia were to actua…

The (exaggerated) scenario is less of an attack but thought exercise on where the line for taking action lies. I went with belligerent actions over attack or small land grabs without casualties. Escalation from NATO let's say is "NATO declares war on Russia for violating sovereignty of Poland". Next? Will NATO liquidate Russian tank columns? As long as I've been alive, neither US nor NATO have ever actively engaged a…

Turkey (a NATO member) “liquidated” a couple of Russian fighter jets when they violated Turkey’s airspace during their Syrian assault.[0]

So it’s not a stretch to think that once a Russian tank would cross into Poland it would be met with immediate lethal force.

[0] https://news.yahoo.com/downing-russia-jet-stab-back-putin-13...

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#470

Post by squarefoot »

tlear wrote: post #414
squarefoot wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Russian forces seem to be trying to encircle or assault Kyiv. Yes, but although Putin is a bloody bastard, he's not stupid. His plan isn't to take entire control of Ukraine militarily but to swap the legit government with a puppet one he would control at will. Once he succeed, which is a matter of a few days, he'll gradually withdraw most of the forces, things will slowly return to normal and in a few years Ukr…

You missed the step where he needs to brutalize population into submission. This will take time and mountains of corpses. He can’t just put a puppet there and call it a day. Puppet will be dead by week after. No he has to occupy the country and crush the opposition.

> No he has to occupy the country and crush the opposition.

In a country the size of Ukraine, controlling cities isn't easy, the risk of transforming the conflict into a guerrilla is too dangerous. Tanks would have to level down entire cities block by block to get full control, and that would likely result in a bloodshed with lots of casualties also among Russians. As much as Putin acts like a dictator, he still need some kind of support from his own people and pro-Russia Ukrainians.

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