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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

reuters.com

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#441

Post by smegger001 »

throw10920 wrote: post #423
ethbr0 wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China invading Taiwan at some point in the future And that's the perspective this should be viewed from. The US may not have a firm interest in Ukraine. The US has a fairly firm interest in Taiwan. The US has a serious interest in Korea, Japan, and the countries bordering the South China Sea. You have to strongly and unconditionally support international order re: Ukraine, so that Xi takes away the right message.

> The US has a fairly firm interest in Taiwan. Why only "fairly firm"? I've heard arguments that if Taiwan is invaded and TSMC falls under PRC control, then the US faces massive chip shortages for years (possibly leading to riots and a destabilized government), and those seem plausible to me.

a chip shortage means i keep my current cellphone for a few more years, and make do with older computer and new cars won't have a shitty infotainment system, or an ARM SoC in some gadget that doesn't need to be smart. not something that causes me to riot.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#442

Post by [deleted] »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

[deleted]

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#443

Post by xtian »

beecafe wrote: post #402
toyg wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gas is important, but what is more important is the nuclear arsenal. The US, China, Russia, Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea, are effectively untouchable by conventional military means, because they are able and willing to unleash nuclear holocaust in return - no matter what they do.

It's not clear that the West is willing.

Here's the list of countries which have used nuclear weapons against another country:

- United States

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#444

Post by rob74 »

ciex wrote: post #393
swyx wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

is this the same plant as the one from 1986? this plant is still active today? im very surprised.

When a nuclear power plant has a failure as catastrophic as that in Chernobyl it is active (radioactive) for a _very_ long time, with no way of shutting it down. The immediate site of the power plant will be uninhabitable for about 20,000 years, however, the wider area might become safe to live in in just a couple of hundred years. While radiation levels decrease in general, there have also been measurements of incre…

Uninhabitable for humans, but it's great for wildlife (who don't care if they get cancer later in life, or don't live long enough to get it). And no, AFAIK no three-eyed fish has been sighted yet...

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#445

Post by dragonwriter »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

> I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization?

If they area actually threatening you with assured destruction (mutual or unilateral), and they aren't bluffing, they cannot while you value the existence of your own civilization.

That's what assured destruction means.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#446

Post by chrisjc »

nuccy wrote: post #156
rmk wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so options are somewhat limited. Russia intends to use Chernobyl as a deterrent to NATO, according to the report (how, I do not know). It is also not straightforward to put a NATO ally right on Russia's vulnerable flank (it's endless plains and flat ground from Ukraine to Moscow, which has always been a source of strategic vulnerability for Moscow), so admitting Ukraine to NATO was ne…

Ukraine signed a Budapest memorandum [1] where US, France, UK and Russia guaranteed its territory integrity in exhange for the 3rd in the world arsenal of nuclear weapons. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur...

Hasn't this been discussed numerous times on HN?

The premise of this agreement was that US, UK, etc... wouldn't invade the Ukraine to seize/secure the nuclear assets, if they gave them up willingly?

Not that the US, UK, etc... would protect the Ukraine if they gave it up?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#447

Post by azeirah »

Bud wrote: post #413

Unclear to me why Reuters articles seem officially blessed on HN in the face of superior reporting from NYT or WaPo, etc. I guess the original reason for preferring Reuters or AP was, avoiding a paywall, but now of course, Reuters has a paywall. So I would opine that the traditional flagging/downvoting of NYT links for this kind of story, in favor of Reuters, should cease.

Reuters at the very least is not American, it's international, I do believe that makes it more neutral than NYT and Washington Post.

Also, there are local news sites such as kyivindependent.com, no paywalls of course.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#448

Post by dudeinhawaii »

pixl97 wrote: post #430
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o861Ka9TtT4 Yes Prime Minister: Salami Tactics.

That was brilliant and very nearly what I was saying. The threshold for actual nuclear war is so high that a belligerent actor could theoretically push quite far by exploiting the natural tendency of the adversary to not desire mutual destruction.

I'm not sure our leaders know what the actual "line" is because there isn't one. Will America MAD to save Europe? I do think it's possible that full-on WW3 engagement with non-nuclear forces could be possible with MAD serving to deter mutual usage and perhaps deter invasion of Russian/American mainland. That's wild speculation though. I base it primarily on the assumption that neither side wants MAD and will act to avoid it. The line for nuclear engagement (as opposed to chest-beating) reduces all the way back to a line drawn around the vital cities/industry/nuclear force deployments of a given country. Everything else might possibly be given up to avoid MAD which is an end-state. Maybe a game theorist can chime in.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#449

Post by danso »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

Sorry, your hypothetical is just too far detached from reality to debate — you really think Russia in 2022 is remotely strong enough to sweep across Europe, and the only thing stopping that ambition is fear of MAD? Huh?

> I don't know that NATO has the guts to give Putin that bloody nose.

Again…what? Based on NATO’s military inaction re: Ukraine, you’ve concluded that NATO will also do nothing if Russia were to actually attack NATO itself? The whole point of being in NATO is having the collective backing of its allied members.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#450

Post by rob74 »

garaetjjte wrote: post #246
odiroot wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

Chernobyl power plant isn't operational since 2000.

Which still means that it operated for 14 years after the accident. Must have been a very "special" workplace for the engineers involved...
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