Live data from Hacker News

Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

reuters.com

341–350 of 1001 posts

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#341

The Russian forces seem to be trying to encircle or assault Kyiv. I think they've taken the nuclear plant because it is a defensible point along their shortest line of advance. They wouldn't want to move past it without controlling the site.

I think they seized it because they need the general area to move their troops. In that case they can't tolerate Ukrainian troops there, but somebody has to be in control and responsible for this site to ensure, among other things, no terrorists make off with radioactive material. I'm totally condemning the Russian actions, but in this particular case they may be acting somewhat responsibly. Unlike with the bombing o…

> Unlike with the bombing of civilians or the whole damn war in the first place!

Has this happened? Ukrainian civilians bombed?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#342
post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Putin is worried about loss of life of Ukrainian citizens. He is worried about losing soldiers, or more importantly dead soldiers being repatriated on the news. They will cover up civilian casualties or blame them on Ukrainian troops. The only support for this will come from Russia domestically and it is that which he seeks to maintain with this war. Which I'm guessing he hoped would be quick and decisi…

He should be worried about catastrophic losses like that, it'd be a propaganda coup against him. Small scale killings can be swept under the rug though.

This isn't the US in Iraq, we're talking about Russia and Ukraine here

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#343
post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Russian forces seem to be trying to encircle or assault Kyiv. Yes, but although Putin is a bloody bastard, he's not stupid. His plan isn't to take entire control of Ukraine militarily but to swap the legit government with a puppet one he would control at will. Once he succeed, which is a matter of a few days, he'll gradually withdraw most of the forces, things will slowly return to normal and in a few years Ukr…

That's such a straightforward narrative, but then why has no major power ever been able to annex and occupy an unwilling nation before? Everywhere Russia has taken to date was already a separatist region, but I'm really racking my brain to think of times when a country 'just simply annexed' another area by force since the fall of the Raj.

Hong Kong?

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#344
post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is who broke this agreement yet you are blaming the others?

It takes two things for an agreement like this to become worthless. The first is a violation of the agreement, which is what Russia is doing currently. The second is the lack of enforcement of the agreement against the above violator. If the other signatories enforced the agreement, then it would signal that the agreement is worthwhile, and other countries would be willing to enter into it. Yes, of course Russia is t…

Only Russia has not met its obligations of the Memorandum as listed in this section.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur...

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if they were, what's easier, to honour such an agreement with an expensive (materially and in terms of human lives) and dangerous (would cause the conflict so spread) deployment or to say "Sorry, you're going to have to tough it out yourself.". The USA and UK already abandoned the Afghani people, feels like the once mighty US military really doesn't want to be in a shooting war against Russia. As someone living…

The US will defend NATO. They will nuke Russia's forces if they try to enter Poland. There is no doubt in my mind that is a red line.

The US will defend NATO unless it feels it isn't the best thing to do at the time.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#347
post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's such a straightforward narrative, but then why has no major power ever been able to annex and occupy an unwilling nation before? Everywhere Russia has taken to date was already a separatist region, but I'm really racking my brain to think of times when a country 'just simply annexed' another area by force since the fall of the Raj.

Hong Kong?

that was a 99 year lease expiring.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_for_the_Extension_o...

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#348
post #310
post #252

This development is a tactical prerequisite for besieging or attacking Kyiv. The exclusion zone covers the shortest route to the city from Belarus - the shortest route available to Russian forces. It’s also perhaps a strategic coup for Russia in two ways - but it could also be a boon to Ukraine. The coming days will elucidate which party most profits - probably Russia. Russia’s first strategic gain is simply one of p…

I don't understand your infowar reasoning at all. Pripyat and its immediate vicinity is just an unpopulated area with a decomissioned nuclear power station in it. Is the subtext that Putin plans to blow it up, or what? I'm pretty sure that attacking central Europe with a dirty bomb would make it very difficult for NATO to avoid invoking Article 5.

  Is the subtext that Putin plans to blow it up, or what?
Information war does not need a rational subtext - I suspect it is more effective when it hasn't any. Even better if multiple rationalities are all slightly plausible yet all slightly absurd.

The fundamental tactic is to obscure truth with a flood of bullshit. One thus removes the surety of known & agreed facts from both the politics of enemy's polity and the planning of the enemy's military.

With its rapidity, and its dynamic reaction the the enemy's information disposition, Russia's approach is to conventional propaganda what blitzkrieg was to trench warfare - largely the same tools, but radically different tactics. To stretch the analogy, the internet takes the tank's place as the key disruptive technology which both inspires and requires new tactics.

  I'm pretty sure that attacking central Europe with a dirty bomb would make it very difficult for NATO to avoid invoking Article 5.
This threat is, I'm pretty sure, not intended. Russia already has enough nukes and Putin has already rather clearly threatened nuclear escalation if any nation "interferes." There is perhaps an implicit threat intended - "nice continent you got here - and, oh, look, Russia is now in charge of protecting its on-going habitability!"

Think of it like this:

Russia wants to be a respected great power. Putin's revisionist fantasy casts Russia as the primary arbiter of Europe's political order.

Chernobyl is an on-going danger to the entire peninsula's safety. It must have a robust institutional custodian - perhaps for centuries to come. It may not be as dangerous, but that cannot be assumed, it must be proven conclusively (and even then concern will linger: democracies are quite skilled at turning society's vague, broadly-held fears into irrational policy).

Therefore Europe cannot ostracize any polity controlling the exclusion zone indefinitely. The EU paid for the current sarcophagus: managing this risk is a vital interest of the entire Union.

More broadly: fear need not be (and usually is not) rational in order to be acted upon - especially in democracies.

  Pripyat and its immediate vicinity is just an unpopulated area with a decomissioned nuclear power station in it.
You are rational and informed, and perhaps correct (I don't know). As far as facts actually matter here, however, your analysis is incomplete.

The exclusion zone is an unpopulated area with a decommissioned nuclear power plant *which happens to be directly between the Russian army and their objective*. Any conventional attack on Kyiv from Belarus must include this area - even if it was truly unexceptional.

But the facts don't matter. "Chernobyl" is a totem in American and European minds. The very fact of this HN post's popularity attests such.

Russian strategists hope, I think, that they can gain an edge by capturing the totem. They think to turn its symbolic meanings to their own ends.

Ukrainians also hope to use Chernobyl's various meanings in the minds of their allies to their advantage, as a warning and an impetus for solidarity.

Semiotic warfare, if you will!

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they seized it because they need the general area to move their troops. In that case they can't tolerate Ukrainian troops there, but somebody has to be in control and responsible for this site to ensure, among other things, no terrorists make off with radioactive material. I'm totally condemning the Russian actions, but in this particular case they may be acting somewhat responsibly. Unlike with the bombing o…

> Unlike with the bombing of civilians or the whole damn war in the first place! Has this happened? Ukrainian civilians bombed?

Whether deliberately or not, yes.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#350
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU and US have made serious mistakes in the process but it's hard to disagree with that conclusion. Either you have a fairly short(By necessity, since Ukraine is going to remain crossable with armor for maybe a couple more weeks before the entire country turns into a giant bog in spring) proxy war in Ukraine that kills a few thousand and transfers the territory from one bickering cabal of oligarchs to another or…

I would treat threats of nuclear weapons as bluffs. He doesn’t want to perish in an inferno and a first strike is hard to justify over a mere military humiliation on foreign soil. Rather more likely are cyber attacks on infrastructure here in the US and attacks on US bases in Europe or abroad.

And if he is not bluffing? :)
Post reply on HN