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Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

reuters.com

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Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#951

Post by d0mine »

flavius29663 wrote: post #820
mleg wrote: post #729

Another Russian here. I don't agree and don't support this action. We anticipate long years if not decades of isolation, even more stagnating economy, even more authoritarian government. By all means it's a terrible thing. For both Russians and Ucrainians alike. But... The drama around it as portrayed in Western media is ridiculous. There won't be major loss of life nor any "war" in conventional sense. It would be no…

can you tell me what pro-Putin Russians think about this? The ones that are not brainwashed? Like, how does Russia gain anything from this action? It only stands to lose economic ties in an ever increasing interconnected world. When Oil and Gas won't be king in 20 years, Russia is doomed without more cooperation with advanced countries. What are people thinking? What is the reason behind all this?

I have never seen a comment on politics which demonstrated non-brainwashed thinking on HN. Surprisingly, I saw more humane, fact-based, and independent thinking on tiktok.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#952

Post by bigthymer »

ericmay wrote: post #706
VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

Long story short, Putin's plan is, depending on how Ukraine goes, to further attack Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, maybe Finland (they'll join NATO by the end of the year if not sooner as will Sweden), maybe Poland , and push the United States and UK out of Europe. If Ukraine goes very well, this will be sooner. If Ukraine goes poorly but he still wins and installs a puppet government, it'll be on a longer time…

> They shut down Nordstream 2, which he knew would happen

I heard that the German president's speech mentioned Nordstream being done. He didn't specify Nordstream 2 as expected. I read somewhere that referring to both Nordstream 1 & 2 caught Putin by surprise.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#953

Post by spacemark »

Tabular-Iceberg wrote: post #931
recon517 wrote: post #593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So many commentators did not live through post-USSR 90s to completely miss the mentality and culture which shapes Putin's decisions. First, you need to understand values of a person, then their goals, then their methods to achieve the goals. 90s in post-USSR countries were a relatively free environment (from state prosecution) and it naturally selected for individuals which wanted as much power as possible and were w…

What do you suppose makes it so impossible for a soft cult politician to recognise a warrior when they see one? Because warriors seem to have no problem seeing the other way around. The Americans had their noses rubbed in it for 20 years in Afghanistan, only to see the warrior Taliban spring right back up overnight. I can’t imagine a more effective wake-up call than that. It would have been better if they had just ca…

I don't think they have a problem recognizing those that subscribe to the warrior cult mentality - notice how often our politicians publicly call Putin a "thug"? It's dealing with it that's the issue. You literally have to change a culture - how does one do that? Clearly sanctions are a blunt tool and often backfire. And violence is supposed to be the last resort for those of the equality mindset, whereas it's the first for the warrior mindset. It's tricky.

I've tried to map this model onto Afghanistan but I think that's a bit of a different beast. America was 100% foolish to invade, I agree. But an equality mentality and a warrior mentality are not the only cultural philosophies. Religion alters the picture in yet another way.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#954

Post by mgh2 »

mgh2 wrote: post #866
VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

It is the right timing for Putin as he is betting NATO, Europe and the US will not intervene due to their recovery from the pandemic, as their (and global) weak economic situation can worsen. War means higher oil prices due to decreased supply, lifting the Russian economy (60% of its exports), while if the US intervenes it will mean further supply chain disruptions and higher inflation - as seen in 1980s: oil price s…

Another economic win for Russia, besides oil, is computer chips

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30457490

[2] https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/030315/how-does-pri....

[3] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/remem....

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#956

Post by bigthymer »

ramesh31 wrote: post #755
uejfiweun wrote: post #139

Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? Will this turn into a guerilla war, or will it go the way of total war? Or will it result in total capitulation? And another key question. What will Western governments actually do? What if the war gets really bad? Does the West actually have the balls to put real, biting sanctions on the regime? And will this crash the eco…

>Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? Will this turn into a guerilla war, or will it go the way of total war? Or will it result in total capitulation? The war was over before it began. The Ukrainian government telling people to take up arms is completely suicidal. War in the 21st century begins and ends with air superiority. Nothing else matters at all. Once a…

Do you think Stinger missiles will make a difference?

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#957

Post by sharken »

throwaway894345 wrote: post #794
smoe wrote: post #691

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the risk of direct NATO military intervention is very low, due to Ukraine not being a member state. As the Nato secretary said, they will support Ukraine, but made it clear the security guarantees are only for allies. "I think also that we need to realize that Ukraine is a highly valued partner. We support them with military support, with political support, with the cyber defences, with equipment. Different A…

Not only is Ukraine not a member state, but Russia is a military power and NATO countries have a very low appetite for war (which is good so long as there are other options for resolving conflict).

For sure Putin has thought most scenarios through and have guessed correctly that the West will not intervene.

The West however cannot be seen to do nothing, so sanctions are the logical next step.

A part of me thinks that Putin at 69 years old, senses that he have to create a great legacy for himself and invading Ukraine seems like a perfect opportunity.

I sincerely hope that the sanctions will include removing Russia from all sports and excluded from as much trade as possible.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#958

Post by [deleted] »

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

[deleted]

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#959

Post by bhtru »

4ec1979 wrote: post #848
VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

I find the rationale for Russia's aggression fuzzy at best, but I think to view this as a Russia versus NATO or Russia versus Ukraine is, perhaps, less helpful than it first appears. In short, I suspect this may be Putin's way of applying pressure to Russian elites. The actions proceeding from him appear desperate (i.e. the brazen assassination attempt of Nalvany) and suggest that Putin feels much less secure than hi…

First I've read of this line of thinking. The rational makes sense and nothing seems glaringly wrong with this scenario. To your last point I believe it's also that it secures his corridor to Crimea and will secure the three pipelines that run through Ukraine. Supply of gas is a point of leverage Putin has on Europe. Securing the channels for it and also of the second largest source of reserves (Ukraine's) furthers to solidify that point for him.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#960

Post by dntrkv »

mleg wrote: post #729

Another Russian here. I don't agree and don't support this action. We anticipate long years if not decades of isolation, even more stagnating economy, even more authoritarian government. By all means it's a terrible thing. For both Russians and Ucrainians alike. But... The drama around it as portrayed in Western media is ridiculous. There won't be major loss of life nor any "war" in conventional sense. It would be no…

The fuck are you talking about? It’s already escalated to something much worse than Crimea. Lay off the state-propaganda.

- Russian that lives in the states

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