Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so options are somewhat limited. Russia intends to use Chernobyl as a deterrent to NATO, according to the report (how, I do not know). It is also not straightforward to put a NATO ally right on Russia's vulnerable flank (it's endless plains and flat ground from Ukraine to Moscow, which has always been a source of strategic vulnerability for Moscow), so admitting Ukraine to NATO was ne…
> ... including neutral Finland and Sweden deciding to join NATO, perhaps Georgia also. Did you hear evidence of that anywhere or is that just wild speculation?
Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
121–130 of 1001 posts
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even if they were, what's easier, to honour such an agreement with an expensive (materially and in terms of human lives) and dangerous (would cause the conflict so spread) deployment or to say "Sorry, you're going to have to tough it out yourself.". The USA and UK already abandoned the Afghani people, feels like the once mighty US military really doesn't want to be in a shooting war against Russia. As someone living…
Putin would have never invaded a NATO country.
But in general I'd agree with you. On the other hand, who and literally what army would stop them?
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so options are somewhat limited Ukraine not being in NATO means we aren’t obligated to intervene. We regularly intervene in various things without a treaty requiring it.
It is still an independent state and a member for a long term of un. Can one just take one like japan say if it is not part of nato.
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#124Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is actually deviously brilliant. No one wants to shell the area because it would release all the dust and radionuclides that were buried during the cleanup. It is a perfect staging area because the downside to attacking it is so high. No allied forces in Europe want to deal with the fallout - literally. This is so genius I'm genuinely in awe. This is right out of Sun Tzu: “The art of war teaches us to rely not on…
If that is true, then every explosion contaminates the vehicles and personnel staged in the immediate vicinity. Doesn't sound so brilliant to me.
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so options are somewhat limited. Russia intends to use Chernobyl as a deterrent to NATO, according to the report (how, I do not know). It is also not straightforward to put a NATO ally right on Russia's vulnerable flank (it's endless plains and flat ground from Ukraine to Moscow, which has always been a source of strategic vulnerability for Moscow), so admitting Ukraine to NATO was ne…
> Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so options are somewhat limited Ukraine not being in NATO means we aren’t obligated to intervene. We regularly intervene in various things without a treaty requiring it.
On the one hand, I feel bad for Ukrainians. On the other hand, the whole world saw it coming, just like we can see China invading Taiwan at some point in the future, and the calculus will be the exact same: Taiwan means more to China than it does to America, and the Ukraine means more to Russia than it does to the West.
It is perilous to fight somebody, whether it's Putin or Xi, with vested emotional interests in the subject matter of the fight when all you've got is ideology.
And so nothing will come of this except 'strong condemnations'. As if any strongman ever gave a fuck.
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#126Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're overestimating the speed of the attack. Even if the Ukrainians put up no resistance (and they have been putting up resistance) - tanks just don't move that fast/ukraine is a big place. See the dotted lines in this map - that's a rough estimate of how far the Russians have made it in a day. Even if they continue at the same pace overnight (unlikely), and the next day, and the next night, there's still a lot of…
Since they're already shelling Kyiv, they obviously have more options than tanks to take ownership of the governmental apparatus. I can't see how Ukraine can put up any realistic defence given they now have no radar tracking or air support. If your point is "it takes tanks a few days to get to Kyiv", then, yes, that is technically correct. If your point is "Russia needs to invade the whole country", no. They own the…
Ukraine knew that they would be able to take Kyiv quickly. Intelligence sources have been saying that for weeks. They (Ukraine and it's friends) have been preparing for this - openly talking about partisan style resistance.
I'm willing to bet that they need to seize pretty close to the entire country to maintain any sort of control.
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#127Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not clear whether every financial weapon will be used. For example, > The foreign ministers of the Baltic states called for Russia to be cut off from SWIFT, the global intermediary for banks' financial transactions. However, other EU member states were reluctant, both because European lenders held most of the nearly $30 billion in foreign bank's exposure to Russia and because China has developed an alternative t…
This is where diplomacy should shine. It's clear that Russia has been hardening against western sanctions for years now, and CIPS is a big piece of that. If NATO can convince China to also shut them out of CIPS at the same time we turn off SWIFT the Russian Oligarchs will start applying pressure to Putin.
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is actually deviously brilliant. No one wants to shell the area because it would release all the dust and radionuclides that were buried during the cleanup. It is a perfect staging area because the downside to attacking it is so high. No allied forces in Europe want to deal with the fallout - literally. This is so genius I'm genuinely in awe. This is right out of Sun Tzu: “The art of war teaches us to rely not on…
Chernobyl sarcophagus is a massive pile of concrete - basically indestructible. Buildings made of concrete are ridiculously resilient to explosions - remember the Beirut explosion? That grain silo right next to the epicenter was still standing Berlin has some flak towers from WW2, quoting Wikipedia: The Soviets, in their assault on Berlin, found it difficult to inflict significant damage on the flak towers, even with…
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#129I can't really tell what's going on here. Is the EU and America supposed to be helping out but it's all promises without real counter attacks? Is this just the calm before the storm as russia places their troops in the right spots while everyone looks on? Anyone who's smarter than me who could enlighten me?
EU and US will use every diplomatic and financial weapon against Russia, but they've long since decided Ukraine and the Ukrainian people aren't worth actual war over. That call was made in 2014 and stopping Russia then would've been easier than it would be now.
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#130Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so options are somewhat limited. Russia intends to use Chernobyl as a deterrent to NATO, according to the report (how, I do not know). It is also not straightforward to put a NATO ally right on Russia's vulnerable flank (it's endless plains and flat ground from Ukraine to Moscow, which has always been a source of strategic vulnerability for Moscow), so admitting Ukraine to NATO was ne…
It is also not straightforward to put a NATO ally right on Russia's vulnerable flank In taking Ukraine, Putin just put Nato on Russia’s border.