I can't really tell what's going on here. Is the EU and America supposed to be helping out but it's all promises without real counter attacks? Is this just the calm before the storm as russia places their troops in the right spots while everyone looks on? Anyone who's smarter than me who could enlighten me?
Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
21–30 of 1001 posts
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
Theoretically the whole area could be turned into a dirty bomb with a few strategic strikes and it would be carried down a river destroying vast areas of Ukraine for millennia.
True - but Russia has nuclear weapons which are more precise and would send the strongest possible message. This is also important because destroying a country might land you a victory, but if it's destroyed, that is a shallow victory. A well-placed nuke is scary and controlled.
Russia would never nuke Ukraine because of the reaction from the West. Using existing radioactive materials wouldn't provoke the same reaction.
I'm not saying Russia will do anything here, but the two are very different from a geopolitical standpoint.
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
Two strategic points off the top of my head: One, the railhead. Afaik it’s operational and modern, as they used it for moving material for constructing the sarcophagus. Goes straight to Kiev. Makes for easy onwards transport of materiel from Belarus. Two, a gun to the head of Europe. They could threaten to destroy the containment, and/or to bomb the reactor building to aerosolise as much radioactive material as possi…
> Two, a gun to the head of Europe. They could threaten to destroy the containment, and/or to bomb the reactor building to aerosolise as much radioactive material as possible. If they wanted to go that extreme, they always had the option of just launching nukes. Capturing the reactor and blowing the sarcophagus just seems like a lot of needless extra steps.
Maybe I read too much scifi, but can't nukes be intercepted in key locations? They might be able to land them in more remote places, but wouldn't hitting cities be difficult? I was under the impression developed nations have missile interception technologies. But yeah, I've read books not based in reality and watched some netflix in my days, so I could be in fantasy land. Kind of sobering to write this out and realize how clueless I am.
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
Two strategic points off the top of my head: One, the railhead. Afaik it’s operational and modern, as they used it for moving material for constructing the sarcophagus. Goes straight to Kiev. Makes for easy onwards transport of materiel from Belarus. Two, a gun to the head of Europe. They could threaten to destroy the containment, and/or to bomb the reactor building to aerosolise as much radioactive material as possi…
Why blow up a dirty bomb when they have 1000 real bombs?
Nuking someone is a definitive, MAD-triggering event. Causing a radiological disaster "accidentally" would be entirely consistent with the "stop hitting yourself" diplomacy Russia has undertaken since moving against Ukraine in 2014.
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#25I can't really tell what's going on here. Is the EU and America supposed to be helping out but it's all promises without real counter attacks? Is this just the calm before the storm as russia places their troops in the right spots while everyone looks on? Anyone who's smarter than me who could enlighten me?
The EU and USA can't attack Russian troops directly without escalating the war far more than anyone wants. No one wants to provoke a nuclear nation, not even another nuclear nation.
As long as Putin doesn't try to advance out of Ukraine, I doubt that NATO will offer any direct support beyond supplying arms and training.
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#26Is there any strategic significance to this? I thought it was closed?
It is actually deviously brilliant. No one wants to shell the area because it would release all the dust and radionuclides that were buried during the cleanup. It is a perfect staging area because the downside to attacking it is so high. No allied forces in Europe want to deal with the fallout - literally. This is so genius I'm genuinely in awe. This is right out of Sun Tzu: “The art of war teaches us to rely not on…
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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#27I guess this indicates that Russia intends to completely subdue Ukraine and back it into a corner. In such a scenario, a desperate Ukraine government could wield the plant as leverage by threatening some catastrophe. By removing it from their hands, Ukraine is denied this weapon of last resort.
And Russia gains another weapon of last resort, should anyone think of putting them in the same position.
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#28I can't really tell what's going on here. Is the EU and America supposed to be helping out but it's all promises without real counter attacks? Is this just the calm before the storm as russia places their troops in the right spots while everyone looks on? Anyone who's smarter than me who could enlighten me?
EU and US will use every diplomatic and financial weapon against Russia, but they've long since decided Ukraine and the Ukrainian people aren't worth actual war over. That call was made in 2014 and stopping Russia then would've been easier than it would be now.
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#29Is there any strategic significance to this? I thought it was closed?
Having news reports about Russian control over Chernobyl is enough to scare a good chunk of European population.
this whole event smells like a hooligan drive-by and not a planned military operation, too many dirty tricks
Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
#30I can't really tell what's going on here. Is the EU and America supposed to be helping out but it's all promises without real counter attacks? Is this just the calm before the storm as russia places their troops in the right spots while everyone looks on? Anyone who's smarter than me who could enlighten me?
The EU and America have promised to help with economic sanctions on Russia and by providing military aid and lethal aid.
The EU and America have explicitly not promised to help out with direct military action against Russia. The United States and Biden have said multiple times that the US will not have forces engage Russia directly in Ukraine.
What specific promises are you referring to?