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Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

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Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#861

Post by dragonwriter »

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

> The risk of NATO intervention is high, right?

The risk of NATO direct military intervention barring an attack on NATO is very close to zero. (Increased material support for Ukraine could happen, but that doesn’t have the same impact.)

Economic response by the Western powers (not through NATO, but independently and through the EU and other institutions) is already happening and certain to escalate.

> But it doesn't make sense that a nation as sophisticated as Russia would accept such a high risk of loss.

Anthropomorphizing nations can be misleading. The risks born by the nation are largely not born by the people committing the nation to a particular course. “Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I’m willing to make.”

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#862

Post by coryfklein »

mlindner wrote: post #793
mleg wrote: post #729

Another Russian here. I don't agree and don't support this action. We anticipate long years if not decades of isolation, even more stagnating economy, even more authoritarian government. By all means it's a terrible thing. For both Russians and Ucrainians alike. But... The drama around it as portrayed in Western media is ridiculous. There won't be major loss of life nor any "war" in conventional sense. It would be no…

That's a bit naive. There are already hundreds of civilian casualties. The Russian shelling is not precise. They don't have the technology for that. They were using MLRS rockets which kill indiscriminately. There's a video circulating online of a little girl who got hit by a shell and killed. This is not like Crimea.

> There are already hundreds of civilian casualties... This is not like Crimea.

For those curious about the numbers, there were 2 soldiers and 1 civilian killed in the annexation of Crimea[0].

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru...

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#863

Post by CapricornNoble »

scottLobster wrote: post #719
ericmay wrote: post #706

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Long story short, Putin's plan is, depending on how Ukraine goes, to further attack Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, maybe Finland (they'll join NATO by the end of the year if not sooner as will Sweden), maybe Poland , and push the United States and UK out of Europe. If Ukraine goes very well, this will be sooner. If Ukraine goes poorly but he still wins and installs a puppet government, it'll be on a longer time…

The Russian Army is not the powerhouse the Soviet Army once was, relative to NATO. If the Russians go after Estonia/Lithuania/Latvia/Poland/etc conventional NATO forces can stop said invasions, no need to launch nukes. Hell the German military might do some actual fighting for once if their Polish buffer state is threatened.

>>>Hell the German military might do some actual fighting for once

Fight with what? The Bundeswehr has almost no tanks. https://www.dw.com/en/german-military-short-on-tanks-for-nat... https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/german-military-short-tanks-...

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#864

Post by bogomipz »

4ec1979 wrote: post #848
VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

I find the rationale for Russia's aggression fuzzy at best, but I think to view this as a Russia versus NATO or Russia versus Ukraine is, perhaps, less helpful than it first appears. In short, I suspect this may be Putin's way of applying pressure to Russian elites. The actions proceeding from him appear desperate (i.e. the brazen assassination attempt of Nalvany) and suggest that Putin feels much less secure than hi…

>" Elite members of Russian society will almost surely be targets of Western sanctions. This may secure Putin and his cronies and ensure a desirable transition of power ..."

I don't understand this. Putin and his cronies are the elite. And by extension the children and other extended family of those cronies are the elite. That's what the oligarchy system is.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#865

Post by atlantas »

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

Russia recognized weakness and appears to be correct about that. The head of the German army just confirmed they are not prepared! Google translation and source below.

"In my 41st year of peacetime service, I would not have believed that I would have to experience another war.

And the Bundeswehr, the army that I am allowed to lead, is more or less blank. The policy options we can offer in support of the Alliance are extremely limited.

We all saw it coming and were unable to get our arguments through to draw and implement the conclusions of the Crimean annexation. That doesn't feel good! I'm eaten!

NATO territory is not yet under direct threat, even if our partners in the East feel the constantly growing pressure.

When, if not now, is the time to put the Afghanistan mission behind us structurally and materially and to reposition ourselves, otherwise we will not be able to implement our constitutional mandate and our alliance obligations with any prospect of success."

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6902486...

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#866

Post by mgh2 »

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

It is the right timing for Putin as he is betting NATO, Europe and the US will not intervene due to their recovery from the pandemic, as their (and global) weak economic situation can worsen.

War means higher oil prices due to decreased supply, lifting the Russian economy (60% of its exports), while if the US intervenes it will mean further supply chain disruptions and higher inflation - as seen in 1980s: oil price spike, gov. overspending.

Putin is testing the new administration, while China is watching on the sidelines over Taiwan.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#867

Post by meijer »

denton-scratch wrote: post #674
meijer wrote: post #469

I hope all Russians reading this are aware how serious the situation is. The world now looks at Russia similar to how it looked at Nazi Germany in 1939. You've got to get rid of Putin.

Won't help; Putin is just playing out conventional Russian geopolitical doctrine. His successor will conduct his affairs the same way.

Not true.

What Putin does is far out of the conventional doctrine.

He is attacking Russia's sister nation. He is not defending Russia's interests.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#868

Post by Dolores12 »

scottLobster wrote: post #710
Dolores12 wrote: post #693

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is Russia just suicidal? Russia has no other choice. When USSR in 1962 [0] did something similar to USA, USA was not happy and it could end up really bad. How is this situation is different? National security is paramount. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis

I keep hearing this comparison. Tell me, when has NATO threatened to place nuclear missiles in Ukraine? Because that's the only way this comparison holds water. No NATO country has ever invaded Russian soil and never will due to their massive nuclear arsenal. I'm willing to admit Putin may have convinced himself and some Russians that there's a national security concern, but the evidence is severely lacking.

> Tell me, when has NATO threatened to place nuclear missiles in Ukraine?

I never said it has to be nuclear missiles. Tomahawks will do for 800km range. And that's a threat for national security.

>I'm willing to admit Putin may have convinced himself and some Russians that there's a national security concern, but the evidence is severely lacking.

If your neighbor says your dog is a concern, you better listen to your neighbor and do not adopt 10 more.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#870

Post by kergonath »

BurningFrog wrote: post #670
VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

Russia has thousands of nuclear missiles. This makes them immune to NATO invasion.

NATO is entirely unable to invade anything. This is by design.
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