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Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

reuters.com

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Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#821

Post by flavius29663 »

synquid wrote: post #449
sillysaurusx wrote: post #352

I’m trying to help my programmer friend escape Ukraine. Since smuggling is a hack, I’d like to ask HN for suggestions on how to pull this off. His elderly father is being drafted. I got a DM from a mutual asking me whether there’s anything I could do for them. I have money but no knowledge of the country; they live there but have no money. During WW2, various affluent people helped smuggle Jews out of Germany. I’d li…

Poland will definitely accept them, they have publicly stated so.

so does Romania

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#822

Post by cambaceres »

kzrdude wrote: post #777
cambaceres wrote: post #756

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is 0% chance that NATO intervenes military, even without the fact that Putin basically told the world that any country that intervenes will be nuked. Regarding economic sanctions: yes Russia will suffer from them, but the thing is that it is impossible to know how high Putin values the prospect of dissolving Ukraine into Russia, so it's pointless to try to reason about it (not that I'm saying you shouldn't). Pu…

Why would he not respond with military force towards economical sanctions? I'm a bit worried about this.

I'm worried too, and I don't have a good answer to that. Let's just hope that there are some trace of proportion inside that mad mans brain.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#824

Post by nickysielicki »

zthrowaway wrote: post #785
jacquesm wrote: post #741

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There won't be major loss of life nor any "war" in conventional sense. That's a bit premature. As for the rest: Russians could rise en-masse to put a stop to this. Call a general strike all over Russia tomorrow and you might be able to avoid those decades of isolation and stagnating economy.

> That's a bit premature. I don't think so when looking at what has happened historically. Also, until Putin attacks NATO territory (which he most likely won't) there's not going to be an all out war. We in the West are being a bit hyperbolic. This is a serious issue, but not a "omg nukes are going to be flying next week" level of seriousness. I'd instead watch what China will do with Taiwan while we are distracted..…

It’s making me crazy to see so many in this thread attempt to have a conversation about the motivations of the Russians without talking about the central point of this conflict: the independence of the Donbas, their natural right to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian confederation, and their recent pleas to the Russians for recognition of their state and military defense.

The Russians did not just simply decide to up and bomb Ukraine. The world is not that simple. A majority of Russians support Russian support for the Donbas region. They are culturally and ethnically Russian in the region.

I’m not defending Russia here but if you don’t talk about the core of the conflict you’re not coming any closer to a real understanding.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#825

Post by whitepaint »

Why is it happening exactly now? Just a coincidence?

And why couldn't a deal between NATO and Russia happen? Something like "Okay, Ukraine won't join NATO within the next 10 years"?

Who benefits from this the most? Is there anyone benefiting? I doubt it'd be happening if it wasn't the case, right?

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#826

Post by baby »

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

Putin, as a dictator, doesn’t necessarily respond to the same voices and lobbies that an American administration would. Sure he’d like Russia to be economically stronger, but his own situation will always be fine so it’s hard to care about a few sanctions. Territory and USSR’s old glory though, that talks to a dictator.

You also have to think that this plan was started in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea. There was no going back from that point on. Ukraine was only growing stronger and angrier at Russia. You either assimilate them, or withdraw. The latter is not very Russian. So it is possible that the Russian gov also saw this move as inevitable not to lose face after what they started 8 years ago, and they will now suffer the consequence of western sanctions.

What is sad really, is that China doesn’t give a fuck.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#827

Post by Mikeb85 »

flavius29663 wrote: post #808
Mikeb85 wrote: post #751

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is the endgame here? Exactly what Putin's always maintained: that Ukraine joining NATO is a red line, so they're preventing Ukraine joining NATO. > The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. The risk of NATO intervention is exactly zero. NATO hasn't done shit except attack random non-NATO countries (Serbia, L…

Ukraine didn't want to join NATO until 2014.

Ah yes, when the EU forced Ukraine to choose between Europe and Russia for economic cooperation (Yanukovych wanted both, FYI) which led to protests that put a literal CIA asset (Poroshenko was, it's not a secret) into power...

Ukraine got played by the West... Even Zelenskiy realised it... Where did any of this lead? The West didn't give any actual guarantees but kept forcing Ukraine to choose between the two...

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#828

Post by adamsmith143 »

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

>If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO).

This is extraordinarily unlikely. Nuclear Weapons are in the mix which in my opinion closes the possibility of any actual confrontations between Nuclear Armed nations. I don't think any of the involved partied are actually suicidal so this doesn't seem a possible endgame.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#829

Post by anonymouse008 »

harryf wrote: post #708
VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

> But it doesn't make sense that a nation as sophisticated as Russia would accept such a high risk of loss. Which means that they might actually believe the risk of NATO intervention is low. Or they see it like Poker as an "all in" move. Either lose now on their own terms in Ukraine or eventually they lose anyway as Ukraine joins NATO and Russia's nuclear advantages are "neutralized". Meanwhile there's the chance NAT…

And you still have the new Silk Road to bank on -- I can't help but feel that Taiwan is next.

Which is probably why the US doesn't want to split efforts across two theaters again.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#830

Post by nikolayasdf123 »

mleg wrote: post #729

Another Russian here. I don't agree and don't support this action. We anticipate long years if not decades of isolation, even more stagnating economy, even more authoritarian government. By all means it's a terrible thing. For both Russians and Ucrainians alike. But... The drama around it as portrayed in Western media is ridiculous. There won't be major loss of life nor any "war" in conventional sense. It would be no…

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