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Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

reuters.com

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Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#681

Post by phlipski »

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

I think the only thing that makes sense is Putin's unchecked power (inside Russia) has essentially made him not give a damn anymore. He's rich and powerful and reaching end of his life. He might be physically ill - we don't know. And this is his chance to try to rebuild the USSR consequences be damned.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#682

Post by jacquesm »

jollybean wrote: post #578
woodruffw wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any abject suffering that occurs over the next hours, days, and weeks doesn't excuse the historical record of abject suffering imposed by the US military. It's perfectly consistent to be opposed to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and also reject the myth that the US's military is the only thing that maintains world peace.

It's not a 'myth' that the US maintains world peace, it's a most obvious reality and it's disturbing that anyone wouldn't be able to see it plainly. The world is not a 'peaceful place' with a bunch of wars now and again. It's held together by force. Peace is a balance of, and righteous management of power. The US+NATO+Allies form the basis of that power. Unfortunately, without the US, that 'Team' would basically be d…

> Unfortunately, we don't have a solution for Ukraine, but thankfully, this will be mostly contained in Ukraine thanks to NATO.

The same sentences were written two weeks ago with respect to Ukraine. You can't make any assumptions about what Russia will or will not do. Taking over the Suwalki gap could easily happen. The frog is best boiled slowly, and with ample time to get used to the new temperature.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#683

Post by artem247 »

efitz wrote: post #662

The globalists have been telling me for years that we are post-national, that borders are obsolete, etc. We have seen mass migration from the Middle East to Europe, and from central and South America to the US, and we’ve been told that this is good. Now I’m supposed to actually care about a Westphalian nation state? I don’t get it.

The real world is not some intellectual tongue in cheek discussion between liberals and conservatives.

It is no surprise for me that westerners couldn’t care less about suffering of “other people”. You don’t need to invent complicated reasons why you do not care biggest war in Europe since 1940’s, or the lives of Eastern Europeans.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#684

Post by enahs-sf »

BurningFrog wrote: post #670
VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

Russia has thousands of nuclear missiles. This makes them immune to NATO invasion.

I feel like people always forget this is an option.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#685

Post by sillysaurusx »

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

Putin probably views it as a price tag. The cost of invading is lower than the benefits of invading.

One benefit is that China (supposedly) approves of this invasion. So it's possible that the sanctions won't have as much of an impact as they otherwise might've.

As others have pointed out, there is no risk of NATO retaliation due to Russia's nuclear arsenal. If China also reduced the risk of sanctions, then the net result is that there's very little downside for Russia to invade.

If we want to make a difference, we need to think of ways to make it a net loss for Putin to invade. Right now it's a net benefit.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#686

Post by rightbyte »

baybal2 wrote: post #608
recon517 wrote: post #593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So many commentators did not live through post-USSR 90s to completely miss the mentality and culture which shapes Putin's decisions. First, you need to understand values of a person, then their goals, then their methods to achieve the goals. 90s in post-USSR countries were a relatively free environment (from state prosecution) and it naturally selected for individuals which wanted as much power as possible and were w…

Quoted post unavailable.

Where does all this maddness come from? Airborn assault on Moscow?

There is so much hate and bad ideas flowing around now it is scary.

My long term worry is that this war will culturally and economically isolate russians and that that was Putin's plan all along.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#687

Post by barbacoa »

adventured wrote: post #645
explaingarlic wrote: post #629

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The count of soldiers doesn't matter; you can only fit so many on a battle line anyway and a war in which you run through a full battle line of infantry is so costly that even that insane regime wouldn't go for it. The red army required millions of soldiers because it ran through them so quickly due to their battle doctrine. This conflict will be nothing like World War 2. The size of the economy doesn't so much matte…

It matters at least in the sense that Russia's modest forces are so hyper exposed right now. The US and NATO could trivially cripple Russia's army in the field. They're entirely unprepared for it and they're going to be operating far from their optimal protection (embedded in Russia where defenses are far greater). The question is, when would Putin throw the nuclear card on the table. I'm in favor of the US and NATO…

>>The US and NATO could trivially cripple Russia's army in the field.

The USA has not fought an symmetric war since WW2.

Russian has some of the most advanced surface to air missile technology in the world, capable of denying NATO air power from operating effectively. Russians S400 missiles can detect and take out even F35s. A direct air assault like you saw in 1990s Iraq war would be suicide.

You would be looking at defeating 100,000+ soldiers equipped with armored vehicles and tanks with primarily ground forces. This is not the kind of scenario we want to see.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#689

Post by Azsy »

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #668

What is the endgame here? Russia is outclassed by NATO both economically and militarily. If NATO intervenes economically, Russia will lose much. If NATO intervenes militarily, Russia will lose much (but at great cost to NATO). The risk of NATO intervention is high, right? Russia understood this before invading, right? So it seems Russia is accepting a high risk of loss. But it doesn't make sense that a nation as soph…

The risk of NATO intervening by art 5 are zero.

Putin is delusional about history and his place in it.

But he's not about to literally destroy everything he owns and then some by triggering art 5.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#690

Post by denton-scratch »

xyst wrote: post #504

NATO needs to stop the bleeding. It's silly to think Ukraine is where it will stop. Stop pussyfooting with the sanctions and fully block trade with Russia. Might need to consider sanctions with China as well... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/china-ref...

> pussyfooting

Thing is, if you don't want to go for Global Nuclear War from the start, then you have to apply graduated sanctions. If you pile in with maximum sanctions as soon as the first bullet is fired, then you no longer have any purchase.

Suppose you apply maximum sanctions over Ukraine? What do you do when Russia decides to attack Poland?

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