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Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

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Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#491

Post by NicoJuicy »

reitanqild wrote: post #256
forlorn wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stay safe, brother, my thoughts and prayers are with you. I'm Russian and wholeheartedly despise this outrageous war crime act of our so-called government.

Hi Russian friends. Good to see you here and good to read your view. You might see me se me support Ukraine or be angry about Russia, but rest assured that I have nothing against Russians as a people, only the ones who tries to invade Ukraine etc. I'm living in the shadow of Russia too and I've just filled my spare water tanks with clean water and I'll fill my car and get some extra fuel for my cooking stove later to…

A friend of mine his wife is Russian ( her mom is from Ukraine too)

I asked and nobody was rude against her because of her nationality here ( she's a nurse), so that's good news.

She did mention propaganda in Russia is in full force.

---

A intern collegue has far-family in Ukraine. But he's not aware in detail currently what they are doing, except fleeing the battleground areas.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#492

Post by chronofar »

lordnacho wrote: post #328
jacobolus wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When the thug has nuclear weapons, responses get a lot trickier.

The thug also thinks his knife won't be needed. Often I wonder which of our leaders has ever played poker. It seems like Putin has figured out that we won't push all-in, ever, so he steals another pot. If the west really cared about this, the only way now is to retaliate way out of proportion to what's happened. Before this happened, the west also didn't act like it wanted to contain the Russians, so the Russians got…

> If there had been some sort of response the Russians would have backed off.

Are you sure about that? Are you really willing to risk your chips betting on a retreat? This sort of geopolitical chicken would be incredibly dangerous.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#493

Post by ycombinete »

amai wrote: post #490
ycombinete wrote: post #114

In his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard Zbigniew Brzezinski did say that if Europe went to war again it would start in Ukraine. Some choice quotes: “Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.” “However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine,…

> “Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.” He claims that without any proof. This maybe would have been true in the 19th century given the technologies for war and power at that time. But we have the 21st century now. Why should the Ukr…

It would be easier to take your opinions seriously if they weren’t contradicted by events happening right now; events which match Brzezinski’s “outdated nonsense” from the 90s perfectly.

You could very well be correct, perhaps the leaders of these countries are living in the 19th century. But the fact that the current leaders of Ukraine, USA and Russia are acting in line with/on these older assumptions makes them relevant still today.

Also there’s plenty of information backing up his claims in the book, you’re welcome to go read it. It’s an excellent window into the way geopolics is rationalised, written by one of the people who have shaped it!

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#494

Post by peace4all »

rdtsc wrote: post #37

I am curious, what do Russians think of this. Does anyone support him? Is it completely just one maniac with his friends running this. Is his propaganda that effective that Russians agree with any of it. I think if anyone can stop him, it has to be ordinary Russians. I don’t see sanctions or warnings from Biden or EU doing anything. And they will never directly step in and protect the Ukranian people.

A Russian here under a throwaway account. I've seen very few open supporters of the military invasion on social media. But most Russians, reached by TV or social media propaganda, carry on 3-5 factoids regarding Ukraine that somehow invalidates Ukrainian position completely.

For example, just from today's talk (face-to-face):

* that Ukrainian forces supposedly committed crimes in Donbass region -- when I ask who in particular and how, these people fail to answer. When I say that they had full right to suppress armed riot of Girkin & co, they switch the topic.

* that the government were illegally overthrown in 2014. I challenged that with the fact that Yanukovich's own party voted to introduce an president interim and start new elections.

Both times I pushed the interlocutor and asked if I lied, and they have nothing to say, nor have more facts, but jump between topics all the time, switching from facts to questions -- like "did they start living better?" or "what about those who died in Odessa protest?" I guess this demagogy is enough for those who want to justify their stance, and to claim own moral superiority.

I asked if they support the invasion, and they say they don't. I'm sure they'll have to make up their mind, but I'm afraid people can choose whatever more convenient to feel ok.

A recent sociological surveys made in January showed about half of population being on Putin's side, even 40% of those in political opposition to him. Sociologists confronted people with evidence of Russian military buildup, and respondents usually answered that this was "Western propaganda" and tried to avoid further discussion.

I can't read minds of the elites and secret service generals who constitute the Security Council, but it seems this is partially what they think -- secret services are very suspicious of everyone and treat everything as a threat. This leads to believing in conspiracies, and justifies agression.

As for me and many others who value the open world borders and don't want back to USSR, I'm most worried that we're going to be under severe sectoral sanctions, with many industries in serious crisis, like in the 1990s.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#495

Post by raxxorrax »

raxxorrax wrote: post #432
QuikAccount wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukrainian military is not exactly weak but Russia severely out-mans and outguns them. It will likely turn into a guerilla war like the US faced in Afghanistan. > What will Western governments actually do? Nothing really. > Does the West actually have the balls to put real, biting sanctions on the regime? No. Boris Johnson in the UK is already being insulted for his nothing sanctions. I highly doubt the West will go a…

Russia also has separatists supporting them and they can move relatively freely withing the country. The US did sanction Russia, but is actually more of a sanction against Germany. China might even like an invasion for different reasons, although they probably will call them out on it officially. You are probably correct that western countries won't do much.

China did not, they even say western nations are responsible.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#496

Post by GuB-42 »

throwaway894345 wrote: post #290

I really hope the world comes down hard on Russia with sanctions and support for Ukraine, but I’m afraid that so much of Europe depends on Russian gas that they won’t risk getting cut off. Which begs the question: how did Europe allow itself to come to depend so heavily on Russian energy? And how quickly can Russia pivot to buy energy from elsewhere (for a reasonable price)?

And how did the entire world allowed itself to depend on China for... pretty much everything? Middle-eastern oil too.

It is globalization, which, in principle, is a good thing. Maybe nor for climate change since we are talking fossil fuels, but if a country has an abundance of resources, it would be a shame not to trade. If Russia needs the world and the world needs Russia, there is more chance for the conflict to end with diplomacy than by killing millions.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#497

Post by chewz »

erikig wrote: post #270
agumonkey wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good times breed bad times. PS: I agree about the feeling of infaillible institution and international order..

I don't know if it helpful during times like these but it sounds like the quote by G. Michael Hopf: Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times

It is originally a thesis from works of Ibn Khaldun, 14th century Muslim scholar from Tunisia who is considered a father of sociology and athropology..

Ibn Khalodoun had described a cycle of four generations of rulers and his theory echoes in Fourth Turning theory nowadays.

So nihil novi sub sole...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Khaldun

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#498

Post by peace4all »

peace4all wrote: post #494
rdtsc wrote: post #37

I am curious, what do Russians think of this. Does anyone support him? Is it completely just one maniac with his friends running this. Is his propaganda that effective that Russians agree with any of it. I think if anyone can stop him, it has to be ordinary Russians. I don’t see sanctions or warnings from Biden or EU doing anything. And they will never directly step in and protect the Ukranian people.

A Russian here under a throwaway account. I've seen very few open supporters of the military invasion on social media. But most Russians, reached by TV or social media propaganda, carry on 3-5 factoids regarding Ukraine that somehow invalidates Ukrainian position completely. For example, just from today's talk (face-to-face): * that Ukrainian forces supposedly committed crimes in Donbass region -- when I ask who in p…

Now, I forgot to mention that all this "they're bad" sentiment is part of so-called post-imperial syndrome. Many are really dissentful.

Also, I'm old enough to remember the popular dissent with the USSR in the late '80s. We as kids would repeat the adults' discussions about how bad the country was, and our parents weren't political dissidents at all, just common dwellers, absolutely non-ideologized. Many wanted friendship with the West. Only very ideologized communtists wanted to keep the status quo when the USSR collapsed, and obviously even secret services where Putin served wanted to open the country and the economy and did not resist the collapse, nor support the GKChP coup.

The economic crisis of the '90s and the war in Yugoslavia where what changed people's minds. I remember seeing a woman carry a white plastic bag with large US flag on it, probably in 1991 or 1992, but that became unthinkable in 1999-2000. Even a liberal pro-Western TV presenter Parfyonov showed some sort of dissent in his historic program when he described the events of 1991.

Those years many changed their minds about the past, and went all way from complete discontent with the communist regime to believing that it was good and that it was destroyed intentionally.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#499

Post by jmkni »

cambaceres wrote: post #390
yumraj wrote: post #382

I'm sure China is watching this very eagerly and taking notes. Fate of Taiwan depends on how the West and the rest of the World reacts against Russia.

The west can't do anything to stop China from incorporating Taiwan. The only thing stopping China is that they are not fully prepared yet, they will be in a few years however.

Stupid question here but why will it take China years to prepare? Taiwan is a relatively small Island, surely China is more than capable already?

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#500

Post by le-mark »

As a US Army 19k (m1a1 crewman) stationed in Germany in the 80’s and 90’s, this is the fight we trained for incessantly. A horde of then soviet armor; we had A10s, Apaches, javelins, all that built just for this. No sane person courts war, but as old tanker I’m kinda sad it went to the Ukrainians, and not us.
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