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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#361

Post by kgwgk »

elric wrote: post #200
kgwgk wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lesson_of_Munich "Although appeasement, which is conventionally defined as the act of satisfying grievances by concessions with the aim of avoiding war, was once regarded as an effective and even honourable strategy of foreign policy, the term has since the Munich Conference symbolised cowardice, failure and weakness. Winston Churchill described appeasement as "one who feeds a crocodile,…

If we're going to be quoting that page, we might as well do it right: > But when Britain and France did go to war in 1939, they were still unable to save Poland from being conquered and occupied. Clearly, had they gone to war a year earlier, they would not have been able to save Czechoslovakia, either Churchill is probably not someone we should ascribe too much wisdom to... That, and nukes changed everything.

How is quoting one fragment of a quote appearing in the page (without an indication that it's a quote or by whom) more right than quoting a full paragraph?

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#362

Post by [deleted] »

hnbad wrote: post #225
raverbashing wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Russia has a complicated history. Democracy is a lot of work

Considering the EU currently includes at least one literal dictatorship and NATO includes Turkey, I think pretending this has anything to do with morals and shared values is a bit dishonest.

[deleted]

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#363

Post by oblio »

simonh wrote: post #353
oblio wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't matter. Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, etc. turned around in 1991. Ukraine didn't. Its people didn't want it. Downvote all you want, that's just fact.

Even if you are right about that, right now it doesn’t matter. I don’t think it’s possible to argue now that the Ukrainian people are pro Russian or anti EU and NATO. It’s entirely legitimate if they changed their mind about Russia given what’s happened since 2014. After all Ukraine is a big country and ‘they’ have a huge variety of opinions. The democratic will of the people now is what matters, and whether the rest…

I agree and even for selfish reasons I hope they win. I don't want Romania to border Russia again.

I hope they manage to push the Putinbots out of Ukraine, Donbass, Crimea.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#364

Post by ed_balls »

darebak wrote: post #326
ed_balls wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They care deeply. China is >10x in pretty much everything. They don't to be a vassal state of China. Russia has lost the independence twice - threat from Asia and threat for united countries between Moscow and Berlin. I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China.

>threat for united countries between Moscow and Berlin. Are you talking the PLC or the Nazis?

Polish-Russian War (1605–1618) and Unity Day.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#365

Post by deepsun »

I've grew up near Russia, and I can describe you their mindset: all "agreements", "sanctions", "borders" etc don't matter. They are just distractions to prepare positions and advance their military. All that matters is force.

There's a Russian proverb: "All territories are ours, it's just someone temporary occupied them".

They also think in terms of territories (not people or economy) and victories. If they start losing a war, they start questioning their government.

So Estonia is doubly right to be worried, as, even if they actually manage to invade Ukraine, I see no reason they are going to stop at Ukrainian border. So the most logical step for Estonia is to help Ukraine as much as possible.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#366

Post by gpderetta »

moonchrome wrote: post #359
afroboy wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you need nuclear energy. Don't forget they are easy targets when war get declared.

I'm guessing if anyone is going to start nuclear war then we're going back to stone age with or without nuclear power plants.

they would be easy targets in a conventional war. In a nuclear war pretty much everything is an easy target.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#367

Post by woodpanel »

travisgriggs wrote: post #265
woodpanel wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is the last colonial empire and as such under constant threat of disintegration by the spread of outside political ideologies like ethno-nationalism, liberal democracy or communism (whose introduction by Germany did a pretty "big number" on Russia until Communist Russia eventually faced the same geostrategic power struggle the Tsarist Empire faced). So when speaking of "aggrevation" always factor in the perspe…

Is a buffer state a lasting peace though? In any mechanical system, if your design is “lets give one part of the system all the stress” but said component is not proportionately strengthened or incentivized, it fails eventually, bringing the rest of the system down with it.

Well it's a starting point at least (see Austria or Belgium). You would then have to build more peace-keeping infra on top of it (see EU). Which highlights why it was an error to de-buffer Ukraine (also the CIS states surrounding Russia serve more or less this role, although "vassal" would be more appropriate).

Speaking of a mecanical system: In the hiearchy of sovereignity, apart from US, RU and CN all countries are somewhat buffers.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#368

Post by deepsun »

tut-urut-utut wrote: post #358

Let's hope that everyone will just accept facts as they are and not further escalate. What Estonia is doing here is just that, an escalation. Instead of implementing the Minsk agreement, Ukraine decided to pursue a military solution of “cleaning” Donetsk region. Now they have a military solution. Now it's time for diplomacy. Just accept the fact that the majority of Donetsk and Lugansk want to be an independent state…

You are just repeating Russian propaganda. Pretty much every sentence is false.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#369

Post by modo_mario »

flgb wrote: post #345
xroche wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables. You can't exit from the oil economy with renewable such as wind or solar due to their non-predictability. If you want to stop importing Russian gaz, you need nuclear energy.

This is simply not true. And even if it was nuclear is not a viable response with new projects taking decades to develop. Todays nuclear industry is delivering warmed-up 1970s technology that is expensive, slow, and inflexible. Solar/wind/batteries with a small amount of backup capacity from hydro, power-to-gas/fuel, biofuels, or new long-duration storage is cheaper and faster to deploy.

>This is not simply not true.

You seem to be disagreeing with our greens. Gas is offered as the only backup source at that scale and timeframe.

>Solar/wind/batteries with a small amount of backup capacity from hydro, power-to-gas/fuel, biofuels, or new long-duration storage is cheaper and faster to deploy.

Wrong. [1]Nuclear wins out when kept open a bit longer and that is without accounting for storage methods. To say "a small amount of backup capacity" is absolutely ridiculous. The amounts we need compared to what is available right now would be massive. Most European countries aren't norway with loads of hydro capacity either. Also power to gas/fuel is a pipedream due to inherent costs and losses alone. You're better off making more pumped storage power stations like in Coo but those don't fit anywhere and aren't magical either.

[1]https://www.oecd-nea.org/upload/docs/image/png/2020-12/lco_b...

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#370

Post by eagleal »

thow-58d4e8b wrote: post #261
tarsinge wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. Just remember that the USA played the same kind of playbook (maybe worse) in Syria and Iraq. It's equally condamnable, but it can give you some perspective to see through media portrayal.

Kosovo is a more apt comparison. There's no way of condemning annexation of the breakaway regions, while defending doing the same with Kosovo - without coming out as a hypocrite who bends the facts to fit his needs

In a way the comparison is understandable, but in Kosovo and Bosnia there were systemic etnic persecution and genocide by the Serbian government.

A more similar comparison would be the US and USSR funding of factions in Italy during the Anni di Piombo. And then say US or USSR officialy arming and sponsoring Forza Nuova (or another militant organization) for indipendence of Padania.

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