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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#331

Post by xroche »

starfallg wrote: post #328
xroche wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables. You can't exit from the oil economy with renewable such as wind or solar due to their non-predictability. If you want to stop importing Russian gaz, you need nuclear energy.

You can with storage systems albeit with lots of constraints. Having nuclear is important to guarantee baseload, but we can't rely on that solely either. With current gen nuclear tech, well also run out of fuel within a few generations.

> You can with storage systems

There is no such thing as storage systems at wide scale unfortunately

> well also run out of fuel within a few generations

Absolutely. But hopefully fusion will be around then.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#332

Post by sillysaurusx »

dvt wrote: post #309
sillysaurusx wrote: post #254

I'm trying to help people evacuate from Ukraine. If you know anyone who wants out, DM me: Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/theshawwn/status/1496761074258952193 Telegram: https://t.me/theshawwn Urgent: If you know anyone near Kiev who can drive two elderly people plus one child to Romania, please contact me ASAP. (Note: Male drivers need to be under 18 or over 55, since they'll likely be stopped by law enforcement…

I can put you in touch with my dad (who knows a lot of people in Eastern Romania) to potentially help. We live in California, but are originally from Romania. Feel free to get in touch (email at the bottom of https://dvt.name/resume/ ).

Emailed -- thank you so much!

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#333

Post by amcoastal »

jollybean wrote: post #198
teatree wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not aware of Russian / European geopolitics so pardon my ignorance, but isn't NATO reaching Russian borders a threat? Hypothetically, wouldn't the US would have serious concerns if Mexico decides to join a Chinese alliance. (I am not justifying a war, just wondering what could have been done on both sides to prevent it)

No, NATO is not a threat to Russia. NATO is not organised well enough to conduct offensive operations on that scale, moreover, there is no state on earth, including US and China that could take parts of Russia and hold for long. But that aside, the very real political and economic situation in the world would make it unfathomable. There's basically no 'strategy game' where the West would have the intent let alone abi…

I feel like its a lot to ask when the people of the U.S. can't even see through propaganda about what is happening in our own backyard. Why would you expect the average american to understand Putin is lying about genocide when half the country believes a caravan of invading Mexicans is attacking the country anytime an orange moron says it?

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#334

Post by starfallg »

ed_balls wrote: post #223
nomercy400 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like Russia cares. They have a growing, energy-hungering neighbor (China) buying their gas in the east, and a Europe committed to reduce their gas and oil usage in the next 10 years in the west.

They care deeply. China is >10x in pretty much everything. They don't to be a vassal state of China. Russia has lost the independence twice - threat from Asia and threat for united countries between Moscow and Berlin. I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China.

>I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China.

If they are serious about partnering with the west, they should have embraced reforms and become a member of NATO. The fact that they haven't is indicative of Putin's plan to counter the west. It's more likely they will partner with China just because Putin isn't thinking beyond that. He's 70 after all and they have no effective playbook against China (ala Foundation of Geopolitics against the west).

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#335

Post by marioflach »

cleancoder0 wrote: post #230
jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

This is unfortunately highly unlikely. A lot of EU politics depends on the pockets of rich Russian oil firms. Just look at Austria, very rich but obviously Russian run EU country. (latest prime minister got fired by Russians even though Russia cyberarmy helped him win the elections. They decided he was no longer as compliant, so they leaked data many years after elections, Russian scandals several years before that e…

> Just look at Austria, very rich but obviously Russian run EU country.

This is just nonsense. Austrian government is not by any means run "by the Russians". Russia has been trying to enlarge it's sphere of influence in the west for a while now (which is nothing exceptional geopolitically speaking) and has few retired politicians working in the Russian private sector (Schröder [DE], Schüssel [AT], Fillion [FR], etc.). But to say that Austria and others are "obviously run by the Kremlin" is a blatant lie.

Greets from Austria

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#336

Post by hef19898 »

techdragon wrote: post #324
hef19898 wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, the Cuban Missile Crisis might have word regarding enemy troops close to the US mainland.

Yea, but you have to factor into your analysis the fact that at the time Soviet nuclear weapon design was leaning more towards inaccurate but with enough boom it doesn’t matter, so their weapons were on average larger and this limited their effective ballistic missile ranges. So Cuba, while a provocative encroachment, was from the Soviet side a necessary escalation of their military forces to counter things like the…

True. Also interesting that part of the de-escalation was the quiet withdrawal of US missiles from Turkey. More often than not, there is no side starting something (WW2 is one example). The whole cold war was, it seems, a tit for tat between two nuclear powers, sometimes led by old seniles and drunks, over ideological differences. There was no Good vs. Evil.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#337

Post by CamperBob2 »

mrjin wrote: post #262
HL33tibCe7 wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately countries like Germany have made completely idiotic moves in the past months in the exact opposite direction. Hopefully other sanctions will also help. Cutting them off from the international banking system, for example.

You serious? Each nation has their own interests. MAGA has obviously proved blindly following was a really bad idea.

Shutting down their nuclear plants for no good reason was certainly not in Germany's best interests. They will now pay dearly for that boneheaded decision.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#338

Post by Xylakant »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #164
kalessin wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is important to note that the gas exported to China and Europe are exported from different fields, and are not connected with each other. As it stands right now, Russia cannot export the gas it produces for Europe to China.

Yes it can, it just takes longer to put it in ships or trains. Transport by ship from where NordStream would leave the land to China is becoming feasible now that the north pole is melting, and Russia is really interested in that. A good, seemingly unbiased video on the subject is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvy9usF7ohE

Putting gas on a ship where nordstream leaves land makes no sense at all if you want to ship to china. You’d have to navigate all of the Baltic Sea and then go all the way around either Scandinavia and Russia or via the Mediterranean. You’d also need to build a liquefaction plant to transport gas via train or ship efficiently. If you’d invest in that kind of infrastructure, build it somewhere more suitable.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#339

Post by ozim »

gls2ro wrote: post #231
MattGaiser wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends. You could target Russian citizens with strong ties to Putin with asset seizures like Roman Abramovich. Seizing Chelsea F.C. and handing it over to fans would be quite popular.

What would this kind of sanction achieve? Do you expect that a friend of Putin will go to him and then ask him to stop a War? Right now in his own circle of friends, there is nobody more powerful than Putin and their money does not matter right now. The war will not be stopped because some friends will have their assets frozen or even lost. Global Power > Friends Money. To stop this war one has to show a bigger power…

How do you think one gets power?

By having rich friends and connections.

Don't get fooled, they are only "friends" because they have common business and goals. Average Joe from the street is not going to be their "friend" because he would not bring anything to the table.

Friends money is part of that power, taking that money away makes whole group weaker, because it is not "evil villain in a cave", world does not work that way. It is connections and groups of people.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#340

Post by afroboy »

xroche wrote: post #303
jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

> The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables. You can't exit from the oil economy with renewable such as wind or solar due to their non-predictability. If you want to stop importing Russian gaz, you need nuclear energy.

> you need nuclear energy.

Don't forget they are easy targets when war get declared.

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