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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#291

Post by RobertoG »

watwut wrote: post #269
RobertoG wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's all very nice, but, unfortunately is not how the world works. What about the Donbas region, do they have the right to decide in an internal debate? Instead of trying to be pro-Russian or pro-West, Ukraine have lost a chance of become Switzerland and make a live getting presents from both sides. Now, I think, it's going to be split.

> Instead of trying to be pro-Russian or pro-West, Ukraine have lost a chance of become Switzerland and make a live getting presents from both sides. Now, I think, it's going to be split. Bullshit. And yes, I am anti-Russian expansion. This is a threat to myself, my family, my friends and my kids, actually. I am very pro-western and very happy my home country managed to be nato member. Stop paining equivalence betwee…

As everyone I have my own perspective, informed by my readings and experiences.

However, it was not my intention to upset you and I'm very sorry innocent people get caught in the middle of this.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#292

Post by MobiusHorizons »

light_hue_1 wrote: post #243
nomercy400 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like Russia cares. They have a growing, energy-hungering neighbor (China) buying their gas in the east, and a Europe committed to reduce their gas and oil usage in the next 10 years in the west.

Russia cares a lot about who its sells its energy to. China is a far worse trade partner than Europe. Europe is easy to bully, it doesn't have a single voice and its pretty predictable which parts will have competing interests. China is not. Russia will lose a lot of its independence if it becomes beholden to China. That would be a bad endgame. Europe is also beholden to public opinion that does not want increased en…

As a motivation that makes sense, but what alternative will Russia have? Do you think Russia is banking on Europe eventually lifting sanctions and purchasing gas again?

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#293

Post by xorfish »

slg wrote: post #150
gambiting wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like I said above - Putin has literally made a career out of calling west's bluffs. Would he call that one? Would he literally attack American/NATO troops to see if we'll really end the world over it? I really don't want to find out. It's one hell of a gamble.

>Putin has literally made a career out of calling west's bluffs. Would he call that one? Well that is the point. As I said the west needs to make it clear that an invasion would lead to war. It can't be a bluff. But we all know the west wasn't willing to end civilization over this so here we are. Seems like Putin is going to keep prodding the west until he finds the line he is convinced we won't let him cross. That l…

Don't underestimate Ukraine in this conflict.

The Russian military doesn't have the resources for a prolonged guerilla conflict against a motivated resistance.

With the current actions, the Ukrainian population won't easily forget what Putin has done and even dictatorships need some level of approval from the population.

There is a reasonable chance that Putin excavated his own grave with his reprehensible actions.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#294

Post by koenneker »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #164
kalessin wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is important to note that the gas exported to China and Europe are exported from different fields, and are not connected with each other. As it stands right now, Russia cannot export the gas it produces for Europe to China.

Yes it can, it just takes longer to put it in ships or trains. Transport by ship from where NordStream would leave the land to China is becoming feasible now that the north pole is melting, and Russia is really interested in that. A good, seemingly unbiased video on the subject is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvy9usF7ohE

I don't know about the trains but looking at shipping:

-Nordstream 2 has a capacity to transport 55 billion cubic meters per year[1]

-The biggest LNG transport ship "Mozah" built by Samsung Heavy Industries can transport a equivalent of ~162 million cubic meters in a single load

This leads to a ~339,5 full loads per year needed to replace the pipeline volume. Nordstream 2 probably wouldn't run at full capacity initially but even at 50% utilisation it would be nearly impossibe to replace it with shipping.

[1]https://www.gazprom.com/projects/nord-stream2/

[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mozah

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#295

Post by jfoutz »

eej71 wrote: post #266
jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

Many countries could also source fossil fuels from friendly allies. But those allies would have to be interested in extracting it from their own sources. From my stand point, and this will be very unpopular here, the push to rely on the unreliables (a better name for the renewables) has been toxic and is a destabilizing force in the world.

Well a car was less reliable than a horse. Cars were destabilizing. (No pun intended) but cars kinda worked out. Unreliables will get more reliable, these things take time.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#296

Post by vetinari »

raducu wrote: post #275
ayngg wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is happening because the west has no leverage and asymmetrical priorities. Russia -really- cares that Ukraine stays out of NATO, probably to the point where they would scorched earth the country before it joined, and the west only kinda cares about Ukraine comparatively, as demonstrated in 2014 and 2008. If they actually really care, sanctions don't mean much. Makes me wonder why the west thought the third time…

Russia does not care about Ukraine joining NATO, Russia has nukes. Russian politicians care about Ukraine being a prospering democracy and a model for russian citizens. That's it.

In order to use nukes effectively, you need to have second strike capabilities. You know, the 'M' in 'MAD'.

Ukraine in NATO means US nukes on Russia border, tipping the balance. It would be similar to Russia placing their bases and weapons into Canada or Mexico.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#297

Post by thow-58d4e8b »

mise_en_place wrote: post #85
chinathrow wrote: post #43

It makes me sad, angry and confused that Putin is showing force. What an absolute madman.

What’s strange to me is that Putin is behaving a lot like Saddam did when he invaded Kuwait. So he either must really fear regime change of some sort will happen soon, or thinks the West is OK with this.

The ferocity, speed and coordination of the invasion suggest it's not just Putin - this is exactly how a unanimous agreement of all political and military elites look like. Judging from history - we won't hear about the true reasoning behind the invasion and the events preceding it for another 30 years at least

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#298

Post by foxfluff »

teatree wrote: post #151
glogla wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Putin is only doing this because of NATO missiles" is a Russian propaganda line. It is disheartening to hear it repeated on HN.

I am not aware of Russian / European geopolitics so pardon my ignorance, but isn't NATO reaching Russian borders a threat? Hypothetically, wouldn't the US would have serious concerns if Mexico decides to join a Chinese alliance. (I am not justifying a war, just wondering what could have been done on both sides to prevent it)

Neighbors of Russia joining an alliance to defend themselves is no more a threat to Russia than Russia defending themselves is a threat to their neighbors. One the one hand, the (comparatively) small European countries clearly need that defense because otherwise Russia is big enough -- and willing -- to invade.

I think the real problem is that NATO is a threat to Putin's imperialistic dreams.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#299

Post by sgjohnson »

kragen wrote: post #242
ricardobayes wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, Article 4 is nothing more than a consultation request. The real big thing is Article 5, which means if any ally is attacked, the others will help. Blinken confirmed US commitment to this is "ironclad".

I don't know a lot about these issues, but here's the way I see it. Ukraine isn't part of NATO, and Estonia hasn't been attacked, so Article 5 can't be invoked. Therefore, this is roughly the maximally aggressive possible response from Estonia. Of course the US Secretary of State says US commitment to Article 5 is "ironclad"; if he doesn't say that, NATO basically stops existing, and with it much of the US's influenc…

I'll believe the US "ironclad" commitment to Article 5 when they build an air base and a naval base in the Baltics.

Because if Putin was to attack the Baltics tomorrow, they would cease to exist before any NATO ally would manage to get their warships past the Kaliningrad Oblast in the Baltic Sea.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#300

Post by oblio »

amcoastal wrote: post #272
oblio wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't wish ill to the Ukrainian people. I'm sorry this is happening. And they haven't done anything to deserve what's happening to them. But their opinions only changed after aggression. Back in 2005 or so they were still pining after the Soviet Union. But yes, truth hurts.

And what is your source saying the Ukrainian people were pining for the soviets in 2005? Rigged election results? Your opinions are crude and ghastly.

My source is simple.

Except for Ukraine (East Slavic, formerly part of the Soviet power structures), Belarus (also East Slavic, also formerly part of the Soviet power structures) and Moldova, (who doesn't know what they want to do...) everyone else turned West ASAP.

How come:

Estonia (ex-USSR)

Lithuania (ex-USSR)

Latvia (ex-USSR)

Poland

Hungary

Romania

Bulgaria

Czechia

Slovakia

didn't also have rigged election results? Well, most likely because their people wouldn't allow them. The popular consensus was that turning West was the only option and even populists and wannabe dictators didn't dare go against the people.

My opinions are crude and ghastly and I'm a jerk. But I'm also right.

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