Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4 • Hacker News Board

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#271

Post by rjzzleep » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:35 AM UTC

ayngg wrote: post #260

jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

This is happening because the west has no leverage and asymmetrical priorities. Russia -really- cares that Ukraine stays out of NATO, probably to the point where they would scorched earth the country before it joined, and the west only kinda cares about Ukraine comparatively, as demonstrated in 2014 and 2008. If they actually really care, sanctions don't mean much. Makes me wonder why the west thought the third time…

> Makes me wonder why the west thought the third time would be the charm in this case

Ignorance and arrogance, but mostly arrogance.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#272

Post by amcoastal » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:36 AM UTC

oblio wrote: post #174

glogla wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The downvotes are because your opinions are despicable, not because it isn't literally true that Ukraine stance changed in the last decades.

I don't wish ill to the Ukrainian people. I'm sorry this is happening. And they haven't done anything to deserve what's happening to them. But their opinions only changed after aggression. Back in 2005 or so they were still pining after the Soviet Union. But yes, truth hurts.

And what is your source saying the Ukrainian people were pining for the soviets in 2005? Rigged election results? Your opinions are crude and ghastly.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#273

Post by Lio » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:36 AM UTC

ricardobayes wrote: post #124

winrid wrote: post #95

I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO? While yes, Putin very much wants his old USSR back, it seems he's doing this in response to potentially having more NATO missiles on his borders. He's basically been saying "fuck around and find out" since 2008 when we said Ukraine would have the option of joining NATO.

I would think so, Russian geopolitical textbooks have been saying for a long time that an "independent Ukraine doesn't make sense". Read here the excerpts what it says about UK, and US. Makes an interesting read. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

That's eye opening.

In the UK there's been much discussion of Russia's role in Brexit. i.e. Aaron Banks, the man who funded the Leave.EU campaign, was aledgidly backed by Russian "business partners".

The Boris Johnson's Conservative government have said in the last 2 hours that they're going to keep £1.93 of Russian linked donations they've received since 2019.

You can draw your own conclusions.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#274

Post by watwut » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:36 AM UTC

hef19898 wrote: post #240

watwut wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And Nato expansion was done by allowing coutries who wanted to do join Nato to go in. Yes, some of their motivation was to prevent Russia to attempt to expand again into their borders. > All that is purely academic now so, with people in Ukraine dying over this shit. That is not purely academic. Framing what Russia is doing now as kinda similar to Czech voluntary joining Nato is word class propaganda. It is in fact a…

Not sure where I compared the NATO expansion, a peaceful one, to Russia's invasions of Georgia and Ukraine. All I'm saying is that Russia, pretty much since German reunification, worried about NATO expansion to the East. And personally, I get that. After all, NATO and the USSR (along the Warsaw Pact) used to be sworn enemies for decades by then. This escalation started decades ago, and was totally foreseeable. And ye…

> After all, NATO and the USSR (along the Warsaw Pact) used to be sworn enemies for decades by then.

USSR was literally Russia + occupied countries. Saying it is understandable is like saying it would be understandable for Germany to attack Poland and France again, because Third Reich went that far too.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#275

Post by raducu » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:36 AM UTC

ayngg wrote: post #260

jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

This is happening because the west has no leverage and asymmetrical priorities. Russia -really- cares that Ukraine stays out of NATO, probably to the point where they would scorched earth the country before it joined, and the west only kinda cares about Ukraine comparatively, as demonstrated in 2014 and 2008. If they actually really care, sanctions don't mean much. Makes me wonder why the west thought the third time…

Russia does not care about Ukraine joining NATO, Russia has nukes.

Russian politicians care about Ukraine being a prospering democracy and a model for russian citizens. That's it.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#276

Post by WJW » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:37 AM UTC

cleancoder0 wrote: post #230

jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

This is unfortunately highly unlikely. A lot of EU politics depends on the pockets of rich Russian oil firms. Just look at Austria, very rich but obviously Russian run EU country. (latest prime minister got fired by Russians even though Russia cyberarmy helped him win the elections. They decided he was no longer as compliant, so they leaked data many years after elections, Russian scandals several years before that e…

All power blocks have large influences into each other. That is basically the definition of being powerful in international diplomacy. You just notice it less (or caring about it less) when it's your own block influencing someone else.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#277

Post by sgjohnson » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:37 AM UTC

jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

Easier said than done. Most of the European Union are entirely reliant on Russia for natural gas supply.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#278

Post by glogla » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:37 AM UTC

teatree wrote: post #151

glogla wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Putin is only doing this because of NATO missiles" is a Russian propaganda line. It is disheartening to hear it repeated on HN.

I am not aware of Russian / European geopolitics so pardon my ignorance, but isn't NATO reaching Russian borders a threat? Hypothetically, wouldn't the US would have serious concerns if Mexico decides to join a Chinese alliance. (I am not justifying a war, just wondering what could have been done on both sides to prevent it)

The context for Ukraine wanting to be in NATO is that everyone in the region has been under constant thread by hostile nation looking to rebuild its empire.

If US attacked and annexed several Central American nations over last two decades, except the ones who are part of pre-existing "defense against the US" alliance, Mexico wanting to be in it would be perfectly rational and normal.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#279

Post by glogla » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:37 AM UTC

hef19898 wrote: post #226

awb wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes and no. Yes, countries prefer weak neighbors. A powerful alliance on your border is a potential threat (or deterrent to expansion). No in the sense that the US only has 90k troops in NATO countries, or about 10% of Russia’s standing military. So it’s not like troops are messing at their border or enough to threaten an invasion. It’s very much a deterrent. Also no in that the US, Russia and China are nuclear power…

Well, the Cuban Missile Crisis might have word regarding enemy troops close to the US mainland.

That was before modern ICBMs were a thing. Nowadays it doesn't matter where the missiles are.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#280

Post by The_rationalist » Thu, Feb 24, 2022, 9:38 AM UTC

jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

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