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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#81
post #59

It makes me sad, angry and confused that Putin is showing force. What an absolute madman.

"showing force" is such a light way to describe it, this is full scale invasion into Europe, with the target to annihilate whole country while impotent civilized west watches it unfold in the fears that they may be next.

[deleted]

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#82
post #13

Non-error-message link: https://birdsite.xanny.family/EstonianGovt/status/1496728085... Text, 57 minutes ago: "#Estonia unequivocally condemns #Russia's military attack on #Ukraine and we have decided to launch #NATO consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty with Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and other Allies." Crepuscular photo of some buildings and link to https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-governmen…

Previous World Wars were not one-sided. Pretty much the majority of the developed world (probably all of the developed world?) is against Russia right now.

I think China is still pretty neutral about the whole thing. Putin payed respects to China (e.g. at the Olympiads), while (at least afaik) no western nation tried to get China onboard with sanctions -- or at the very least, they didn't send their presidents over to talk to Xi.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#83
post #17
post #13

Non-error-message link: https://birdsite.xanny.family/EstonianGovt/status/1496728085... Text, 57 minutes ago: "#Estonia unequivocally condemns #Russia's military attack on #Ukraine and we have decided to launch #NATO consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty with Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and other Allies." Crepuscular photo of some buildings and link to https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-governmen…

That's rather hyperbolic. Article 4 has been invoked six times since 2003 (including in response to the Crimean invasion.) None of those cases triggered World War III.

It's not hyperbole. There were plenty of political assassinations in the years before 01914 that didn't trigger World War I, too. Hopefully this is another time Article 4 is invoked without triggering World War III. But it may not be.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#84
post #11

This reminds me of each time people criticises the European Union for "condemning" something. Big organizations do things step by step. First you talk, then you act. Even Russia prepared a prerecorded pantomime of a discussion before acting. This are the gears moving and is no small thing, it sends a message and prepares for the worse.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now.

I’m glad you’re willing to play armchair general with other people’s blood.

I served, did you? I’m 100% disabled as a result. If you didn’t wear the uniform, don’t be so quick to volunteer others for what you aren’t willing to do yourself.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#85

It makes me sad, angry and confused that Putin is showing force. What an absolute madman.

What’s strange to me is that Putin is behaving a lot like Saddam did when he invaded Kuwait. So he either must really fear regime change of some sort will happen soon, or thinks the West is OK with this.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev And when those American soldiers are killed by Russian missiles, do you then declare full on war on Russia, and we basically all die? Because like....there is no other good option out of this you know. By placing American(or NATO) troops and assets in the harms way, you need to be prepared for what you are going to do if those…

I guess we let Putin have Ukraine then.

There are more than options, as the post that you are replying to explained. This kind of cheap response does not add anything.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for pointing out. I'm comparing Germanys "helpful" occupations of neighboring countries "to help the poor Germans there against abuse" inhabitants to Putin's attempt to occupy Ukraine "to protect all the poor Russians there against genocide."

There was no German enclave uprising in Poland with an 8 year stalemate. The situation in Ukraine has been very unstable.

Tho, Germans did tried to create local nazi guerillas in northern countries that would support them from inside. It did not really worked out, they never got numbers.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange. This hasn't been true since the Cuban Missile Crisis. A full scale nuclear exchange ends with the annihilation of both sides. [1] To quote WarGames, "The only way to win is not to play". [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction

Yes, in the presence of rational actors this would be avoided, but here we are anyway. A single nuclear strike would be met with retaliation and it would escalate to mutually assured destruction like clockwork. A lot of optimists thought Putin would not invade Ukraine because of the risk and that he was posturing. It would be similarly optimistic to presume rational actor decision processes. That may be a strategy he…

> We are on the knife's edge of disaster here.

Not even remotely true. Demonstrably. The worst thing on the table right now are economic sanctions. Putin knew these were going to happen, and evidently thought the trouble was worth it.

In fact, over the past few weeks, the major powers have confirmed over and over and over again that there would be no military response at all.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#89
post #55
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes Russia position understandable? What gives them right to occupy Ukraine?

The position is understandable because Russia is playing a Grand Strategy Game in the past, and doesn't want the enemy ( NATO) to be at all their borders. Justified? Right? Humane? Absolutely not.

That is not understandable. "I don't like nato at the border, therefore I will push my border toward nato". Russian "nato is ennemy" exists, because Russia wants nato be ennemy. It prevents further expansion.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now.

>> NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev And when those American soldiers are killed by Russian missiles, do you then declare full on war on Russia, and we basically all die? Because like....there is no other good option out of this you know. By placing American(or NATO) troops and assets in the harms way, you need to be prepared for what you are going to do if those…

Otherwise you let Putin have Ukraine and basically show your ass. We’re all afraid of nukes, but that fear can’t make us allow for everything.

I am a Pole as well and also very uncomfortable. I also believe Nato should intervene in Ukraine. Otherwise, we just wait until it’s our turn.

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