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Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

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Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#331

Post by ironcurtain »

vkou wrote: post #195
NewJazz wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russians (some of them, to clarify) associate the current Ukrainian regime with Nazism/fascism. After all, far right groups were a major part of the 2014 revolution/putsch. https://crimethinc.com/2022/02/15/war-and-anarchists-anti-au... (note: the disinformation section is especially relevant)

"Yes/No" support is a bit of an over-simplifaction of the situation. There's two major axes, here. The government is pushing the 'Ukranian neo-nazis' propaganda, because it's a convenient bullshit excuse (as is all the spilled ink in Putin's essay about long-dead history). Some soft-headed people obviously believe that wholesale. What isn't an excuse, though, is that Ukraine did take steps to restrict its Russian min…

Take steps like completely restricting Russian language in schools, public spaces, TV, etc? Considering that 100 years ago Ukrainian language was a dialect for peasants, that’s quite a leap. Communists started “rooting” - korenization - program in 1920s when Russians were wholesale written as Ukrainians in their ID papers, another 20 years of these steps and there will be no Russians left in Ukraine, same thing happened to Turks in Bulgaria. People remember and the current regime in Kiew is controlled by ultra-nationalists from Volyn and Galicia, with their worship of Bandera, OUN/UPA and the rest of the scum. When they came to power during Maidan, people hear the chant all the time - “Moskalyaku na gilyaku”. Do you know what it means?

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#332

Post by 8ytecoder »

ripvanwinkle wrote: post #316
jacobolus wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When the thug has nuclear weapons, responses get a lot trickier.

I'd say in this case everyone has nuclear weapons i.e. thug and bystanders with abundant second strike capabilities and also a healthy desire to live. With that level of mutually assured destruction, conflict if any would almost certainly stay conventional. In fact if NATO had moved in about 50 to 100K troops at the invitation of Ukraine sometime over the past 3 months, its really unlikely that Putin would have upped…

I don’t know. Mr P would have made that the excuse to invade. In war perception and public sentiment is very important too. Biden would easily lose popular support in this hypothetical scenario. As is there doesn’t seem to be much support from the right at the moment.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#333

Post by throwawaymedia »

DrJaws wrote: post #319
throwawaymedia wrote: post #283

I'm Ukrainian, but I just want to throw a provocative thought in here. Everyone's talking about how bad and evil Putin is and all that. However, nobody's talking about the _why_ Putin is doing what he's doing. For the past 14 years, Russia is trying to find a solution as for the NATO's expansion to the east. The US does NOT want to stop the expansion despite anything. If I place a tent next to your house and start wa…

there are other countries that are closer to Russia than cities like Kyiv , but Russia is invading them also, why Russia should decide on how other countries decide their internal affairs? Ukraine doesn't need the approval of Russia to join or not join NATO.

You are right, Ukraine doesn't need the approval of Russia, however, becoming a member of NATO is only possible if membership does not affect security of any other country. That's written on paper and one of the conditions. But since the US politics is against Russia (for some _stupid_ reasons - do a research and educate yourself), Ukraine becoming a member of NATO is a direct threat to Russia.

Edit: I also want to add to this that the US is completely aware of the situation. They know exactly that their decision not to stop the expansion leads to a war. First, the US is not stupid. Second, there is a great example - Georgia, where war for the exact same reason took place. So, who's to blame here? Is it really Putin? My common sense tells the opposite.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#334

Post by ironcurtain »

sbmthakur wrote: post #89
NewJazz wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russians (some of them, to clarify) associate the current Ukrainian regime with Nazism/fascism. After all, far right groups were a major part of the 2014 revolution/putsch. https://crimethinc.com/2022/02/15/war-and-anarchists-anti-au... (note: the disinformation section is especially relevant)

> Russians associate the current Ukrainian regime with Nazism/fascism. I guess you are speaking for majority of Russians. Is there an independent survey to back it up?

Look up the chant - Moskalyaku na gilyaku - which supporters of the current regime chant all the time. Plenty of videos of that. Check what it means.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#335

Post by goldenshale »

speedgoose wrote: post #224
dealforager wrote: post #8

I've worked at tech companies that despise helping the US military. Please understand that the world is complex and although all superpowers have done terrible things, helping the US is the only way our children will live in a peaceful world. This isn't about democrats or republicans, the future of humanity will be decided in the next decade.

US the only way for a peaceful world? You should read a bit on the USA history and its military conflicts and you may change your mind. Wikipedia is a good starting point.

The period of US hegemony from WW2 until today has by far been the most peaceful time in the history of civilization. Unlike previous super powers, the US did not take over any other countries or colonize by force. We have done many horrible things, like support dictators, invade Iraq based on lies (to depose a dictator), etc., but we have also supported people all over after natural disasters, helped with foreign aid to relieve famines, policed global trade to enable fair markets, and many other good deeds. It's definitely not the only way, and we could do much, much better, but show me another major country that you would prefer hold the reigns of global power?

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#336

Post by dandanua »

Gatsky wrote: post #75

> "To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: if you do, you will face consequences greater than any of you have faced in history. All relevant decisions have been taken. I hope you hear me."

He is hinting that he can nuke everyone who will stand against. This is a typical tactic of bullies – to hint death threats, without directly stating them. Also they want to assure you that they can definitely do it, even though they know about the consequences.

I wrote about such tactics in a blog post https://dandanua.github.io/posts/counterfactual-communicatio...

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#337

Post by melony »

nradov wrote: post #111
ripvanwinkle wrote: post #32

To some extent this situation feels analogous to a street mugging happening in very slow motion The thug accosts the victim, threatens and then proceeds to assault the victim in full view of a large number of bystanders who are numerous enough to defend the victim and alter the outcome but not convicted enough to take on the inconvenience of doing so. Nevertheless all the bystanders voice words of encouragement and s…

Are you suggesting that neighboring countries should go to war to defend Ukraine? If I see a street mugging then I'll call the police but I'm not going to risk getting shot in order to intervene in a random street crime. This is obviously a terrible situation for the Ukrainian people but at the same time they could have done a lot more to prevent it. They essentially let their military deterrent collapse years ago th…

Germany could have stopped the situation from deteriorating further weeks ago, but the new government are idiots.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#338

Post by dainiusse »

osynavets wrote: post #115

Kharkiv, 25 miles to Russia. Just want to say that we are strong, we are confident about our army and I hope that everything will be fine. I'm sorry that I share content like this on this platform, but that's my reality

God bless your people and army. I am so sorry, that I don't feel enough support being sent from the western world - from medicine to weapons and sanctions.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#340

Post by int_19h »

uejfiweun wrote: post #139

Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? Will this turn into a guerilla war, or will it go the way of total war? Or will it result in total capitulation? And another key question. What will Western governments actually do? What if the war gets really bad? Does the West actually have the balls to put real, biting sanctions on the regime? And will this crash the eco…

Ukraine has been preparing for this was since 2014. But so has Russia since 2008 (South Ossetia); that's largely what the Syrian excursion was for, to train troops and test new equipment in real combat.

Russia is certainly much more powerful militarily in pretty much every respect: it has significantly more manpower, more and better equipment, and economics to supply it logistically. I don't think there's any chance for Ukraine to win on its own.

That said, Ukraine isn't Syria. It has an air force, and, perhaps more importantly, capable anti-air. It has fairly modern tanks, attack helicopters, and cruise missiles. Russia will certainly take considerable losses taking over.

The other aspect is motivation. On the Russian side, there are certainly people whose dream is coming true right now, but most soldiers - especially not conscripts! - are not really willing to take a bullet in the process of "de-Nazifying Ukraine". I don't expect any massive anti-war resistance, but they won't fight to the end.

On the Ukrainian side, there is a mixed bag. On one hand, most of them - even those whose native language is Russian, who might self-identify as ethnically Russian, and who might even support greater regional and language autonomy etc - don't really want Russia to violently take over. People tend to be motivated to fight desperately regardless of ideology when their cities are burning. But there's also a minority that would really like to repeat what happened back in 2014 in Donetsk and Lugansk (and what was kinda sorta attempted but didn't work out in Kharkov and Odessa), and who genuinely see the Russian forces as liberators. Needless to say, those people will make fine overseers once the fighting is over, and might even help during it.

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