Kharkiv, 25 miles to Russia. Just want to say that we are strong, we are confident about our army and I hope that everything will be fine. I'm sorry that I share content like this on this platform, but that's my reality
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Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack
281–290 of 1001 posts
Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack
#282In the recent video where Putin gathered some officials to discuss intel, you could see them stuttering and fumbling their speech. It seems Putin is pulling all the strings and that even higher ranks are puppets. Potentially a lever.
> While the meeting was presented as a “live” event, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, one of the advisors, was wearing a watch showing that the event was recorded five hours before, thus placing it before the “governments” of the regions asked for recognition.
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/february-21-2022
Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack
#283I'm Ukrainian, but I just want to throw a provocative thought in here. Everyone's talking about how bad and evil Putin is and all that. However, nobody's talking about the _why_ Putin is doing what he's doing. For the past 14 years, Russia is trying to find a solution as for the NATO's expansion to the east. The US does NOT want to stop the expansion despite anything. If I place a tent next to your house and start watching your windows daily, what's going to be your reaction? That is EXACTLY what's happening today. Nobody cares about Ukraine. Neither the US nor Putin. Ukraine is poor country. The _core_ of the problem is the US and its desire to place military bases across the world, including Ukraine, hence next to Russia's borders. Who'd like that? The US didn't like it in 60th during the Cuban Missile Crisis, so is Russia today.
Everything started in April of 2008, during the Bucharest Summit Declaration saying that "NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO". Russia immediately said that this is not going to happen because it affects their security - and it DOES make sense, doesn't it? That led to a war in Georgia. Today it's a war in Ukraine, my home country.
Once again, Putin is just a side effect. The core, the _root_ cause is the US's maniacal NATO expansion aspiration.
Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack
#284If the west fails to act effectively, I bet China will invade Taiwan in the following years.
Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack
#285Earlier quoted context omitted.
The speech of a bully, of an aggressor. The only correct reply is a direct retaliatory attack on his offensive positions.
The reason Putin is invading is because he knows the U.S. is weak, its leadership is politically weak, and there's very little it will do, and even if it does, it doesn't have popular support. It's the effect of clear incentives. If the U.S. intervenes, a retaliatory cyber op from Russia against critical infrastructure would make america amish again. Then, wait until midterms when the president loses the house and se…
I don’t think this is the full picture.
Post-Vietnam the US hasn’t engaged in large scale active combat against communism or Russian-backed forces. It has instead favored selling weapons to Eastern European states and building the NATO alliance.
Putin has been clear about the breakup of the USSR being a mistake in his eyes. He’s been annexing territories (or in his eyes, re-annexing) since 1999. He looks for countries with strong Russian cultural and linguistic backgrounds and props up allies that will take over. If that doesn’t work he ratchets up the pressure until he feels comfortable using military force. See: Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea and now Ukraine.
The US is far stronger militarily than Russia, but with nuclear weapons in the equation, no one wins.
It’s easy to be an arm chair hawk and say we should go fight, but it’s another thing to look you kids in the eye and explain they’re going to die from radiation fallout.
Instead, the US will likely prop up the resistance once Ukraine falls and try to make occupation as costly as possible just like we did in Afghanistan.
Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack
#286It’s sad but my father always told me that the good times we’ve had are unprecedented and they can end faster than we think. I never believed him growing up, institutions and America seemed infallible. It’s sad to say but I think with global warming, covid, and the general decline of American soft power we’ll see more and more global turmoil My heart goes out to Ukraine and its people
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Very, very few Americans support Putin. Less than 5%.
Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack
#287Earlier quoted context omitted.
When the thug has nuclear weapons, responses get a lot trickier.
It's possible for nuclear powered thugs to be beaten off. Just look at the Taliban. Destroying things is easy, but maintaining control is hard
It is by no means clear that Russian military/state will “win” long-term in Ukraine. When there is significant local opposition to military occupation, it is indeed hard to maintain control.
But in the mean time, they’ll be able to kill a whole lot of people and destroy a whole lot of lives, and wreck Ukrainian democracy and economic prosperity for years if not decades.
Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack
#288Does anyone have any projections for how this war will go? Is the Ukrainian military powerful? Will this turn into a guerilla war, or will it go the way of total war? Or will it result in total capitulation? And another key question. What will Western governments actually do? What if the war gets really bad? Does the West actually have the balls to put real, biting sanctions on the regime? And will this crash the eco…
I expect Russia will take complete control of the territory claimed by the breakaway provinces. It may decide to annex them. I don't expect them to occupy the rest of Ukraine. They will probably settle for destroying large parts of the Ukrainian military.
Will Ukraine do any sort of fighting back? I ask because it seems to me that the Western politicans are constrained by public opinion. They will not issue major sanctions if they don't have to, they'd rather keep the markets afloat. In my view only real visceral footage of the horror of war could compel the Western publics to actually get mad to the point where the politicians impose serious sanctions on Russian gas exports and banking.
Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack
#289Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack
#290I really hope the world comes down hard on Russia with sanctions and support for Ukraine, but I’m afraid that so much of Europe depends on Russian gas that they won’t risk getting cut off. Which begs the question: how did Europe allow itself to come to depend so heavily on Russian energy? And how quickly can Russia pivot to buy energy from elsewhere (for a reasonable price)?