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U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

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Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#271

Post by xibalba »

mlac wrote: post #174
SilasX wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but the parent's point (and my concern as well) is that "market crash" does not necessarily mean widespread fallout (e.g. Black Monday in '87); that only happens when the losers are tightly coupled to other critical parts of the economy, which isn't necessarily the case here: GS/JP Morgan won't have to default on loans to critical counterparties in a crypto crash, for example. Any time a big group loses wealth a…

It’s becoming widespread with all of the apps, super bowl ads, and reduced friction in getting into crypto “investing”. It used to be people who purchased crypto had to know what they were doing (and know the risk). Now anyone can buy crypto without any understanding of anything after seeing a 30 second commercial about smart investing.

I think you're not understanding. While a bunch of people losing money is bad, it wouldn't create another Great Depression, per se. A huge investment bank with millions of counterparties going under absolutely could cause massive, long term damage to both the financial markets and the real economy. For example, people losing their hats in crypto wouldn't cause commercial paper markets to dry up. A big IB going down almost did in 2008. That would have resulted in huge businesses that employed, collectively, millions of people becoming effectively insolvent. Now you're talking about a Great Depression. Big difference. This is where the keyword "systemic" comes into play–as in, this entity is a critical node in the system. Its collapse could jeopardize the system.

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#272

Post by eric-hu »

Mezzie wrote: post #247
eric-hu wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's not how it works. The President can't just call up banks and tell them not to give people their own money, or shut down every stock market in the world. Isn’t this what Biden is doing this week with Russian nationals tied to the invasion of Ukraine? I agree with you it’s more complicated than just a phone call, but for the opposing parties they don’t need to think about those details. Those people and compan…

Yes, but he only can do that to American companies/companies that do business here. He can't tell, say, the Swiss to keep the Russians' money. There's a difference between "Money market funds, banks, stock exchanges, and every other financial institution can be frozen instantaneously by the U.S. President to 'prevent another financial collapse'" as thread OP mentioned and what you're talking about. I was addressing o…

Ok thanks for repeating those details of the GP comment. I have to agree with you that some facts in there are fundamentally wrong. The U.S. government can do things to restrict uses of USD but they aren’t _that_ arbitrary.

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#273

Post by eric-hu »

dogman144 wrote: post #238
eric-hu wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fascinating explanation (though I’m already bullish BTC). No counters but a question: What’s stopping BTC lightning from being the rails you pay a buddy for a beer on?

- Assuming it's A vs. B platform choices, then network effects: you'll actually have to get users to jump from Venmo, to LighteningMo. Hard stuff if there aren't compelling reasons - Assuming LN is the infra that the Venmo of 2050 uses: I think you'd need a compelling reason for "Venmo" to drop (edit: or integrate LN into) their underlying infra, which is where I understand Plaid and inside baseball platforms b/t TX…

I think the second case is most likely. I don’t see crypto displacing any fiat or even financial rail system completely, but just taking a sizable share. I’ve seen very reasonable use cases in Southeast Asia in remittance. Western Union takes a ridiculous cut, and I wouldn’t be surprised if similar use cases are in Africa and South America as well.

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#274

Post by kravens_last »

danuker wrote: post #183
Spoom wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This implies that your retirement savings are in cash, which is inaccurate for most folks. And certainly, I'd rather have it invested in the stock market than the wild fluctuations of the crypto market, especially with its uncertain withdrawal ability and complete inability to recover if someone steals it (which is, again, typically much easier with crypto than a brokerage).

The previous comment said cash is stable. I was illustrating that it is stably losing value.

Would you rather stably losing purchase power at a predictable pace over time (fiat) or exponentially unstable purchase power in perpetuity (bitcoin)?

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#275

Post by jeremyjh »

tastyfreeze wrote: post #246
jeremyjh wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how that is a counter example. You are using crypto as an investment asset, not as a currency.

I am just hoping to maintain purchasing power of money I have earned by getting out of fiat currencies however I can. I shouldn't need to invest in anything to maintain the value of my money.

Staying ahead of - or keeping pace with - inflation is actually a primary purpose of investments and why many people invest in stable bond and money market funds.

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#276

Post by jeremyjh »

Consultant32452 wrote: post #160
jeremyjh wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deflation has nothing to do with it, its purely driven by speculation.

Speculation is just an emotional word used to throw you off the scent. You are also speculating about the future value of the dollar.

Its true that fiat money's value is somewhat speculative, but speculation still has a specific meaning. It means you are investing not because you believe in the future value proposition of the asset (such as dividend payments, or liquidity value increase if all fixed assets of an enterprise were sold), but only because you expect the market price to increase. Often you expect the market price to increase for no reason other than you know many other people are speculating, so there is really no there, there.

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#277

Post by kravens_last »

blatchcorn wrote: post #221
mjburgess wrote: post #200

Despite other comments, I'm concerned there isnt enough anti-crypto here. Let's be clear: this is what a graph of the values of currencies looks like: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=10Y . Micro-value adjustments up-and-down, and if you comapred to the price of bread, midly inflationary. This is what all (necessarily deflationary) crypto "currencies" look like: https://www.xe.com/currencychart…

I am probably not going to change your mind. But I think some stuff you should consider are: Is the volatility an inherent problem built into the code and design of bitcoin et al? Or does the volatility stem from external factors like it being new, difficult to value, and much lower market cap then other currencies? I personally believe that bitcoin's volatility is not by design and will not last forever. Secondly, y…

> I personally believe that bitcoin's volatility is not by design and will not last forever.

If the entire premise of bitcoin's valuation is an open market exchange based on supply (finite and fixed) and demand (variable), then logically, the outcome is perpetual volatility.

There will be zero cases where demand will flatline because this has never in human history occurred organically. For unforseen reasons (a business deal gone bad, a divorce, etc) a btc whale may decide to liquidate, causing a cascading effect of running out of USDT, bringing the entire market crashing down. Bezos may decide to add 4B worth of liquidity to BTC as a speculative portion of his portfolio. Shit like this will happen and only add to more volatility in valuation.

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#278

Post by dogman144 »

eric-hu wrote: post #273
dogman144 wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- Assuming it's A vs. B platform choices, then network effects: you'll actually have to get users to jump from Venmo, to LighteningMo. Hard stuff if there aren't compelling reasons - Assuming LN is the infra that the Venmo of 2050 uses: I think you'd need a compelling reason for "Venmo" to drop (edit: or integrate LN into) their underlying infra, which is where I understand Plaid and inside baseball platforms b/t TX…

I think the second case is most likely. I don’t see crypto displacing any fiat or even financial rail system completely, but just taking a sizable share. I’ve seen very reasonable use cases in Southeast Asia in remittance. Western Union takes a ridiculous cut, and I wouldn’t be surprised if similar use cases are in Africa and South America as well.

Ya would agree as well, some cross-protocol, side-chain/SWIFT/Plaid/blockchain hybrid except for greenfield areas where it might take off natively.

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#279

Post by kravens_last »

jonathan-adly wrote: post #37
jeremyjh wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The fact that more and more capital is directed towards them is a symptom of the fact the national currencies have shortcomings. I literally laughed out loud. People buy crypto because they think it will rise in value, nor because it has any relevance as a currency (outside of certain illicit markets).

>People buy crypto because they think it will rise in value, nor because it has any relevance as a currency (outside of certain illicit markets). Source? As far as I can see, Bitcoiners are especially hammering the messages about Austrian economics, the right of freedom to transact, self-custody, separating money from the state and so on. Their scripture material, rarely talk about "price" at all. The maxis will even…

> not everyone buys Crypto to sell in a week and make more USD

True. Recent price action seems to suggest that people actually may end up with less USD.

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#280

Post by [deleted] »

jeremyjh wrote: post #276
Consultant32452 wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speculation is just an emotional word used to throw you off the scent. You are also speculating about the future value of the dollar.

Its true that fiat money's value is somewhat speculative, but speculation still has a specific meaning. It means you are investing not because you believe in the future value proposition of the asset (such as dividend payments, or liquidity value increase if all fixed assets of an enterprise were sold), but only because you expect the market price to increase. Often you expect the market price to increase for no reas…

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