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U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

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Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#131
post #52

I’m blown away by how anti-crypto this discussion is. I hadn’t realized how negative the prevailing sentiment is on Hacker News. One argument seems to be that cryptocurrency is purely speculative, which is apparently a dirty word. What about the stock market? What about any kind of investment? If you truly believe that cryptocurrency is the basis for a superior economic system, isn’t it rational and wise to put some…

> Banks will be hurt by crypto

Anyone saying this is talking bollocks. Wall Street hasn’t seen a bonanza like crypto since ‘06. Hedge funds are having their best fundraising years since the 80s, largely on the back of crypto-related trading.

The best balance I can come up for crypto is to mandate KYC at all on and off ramps, tax its trading like the luxury good it is (maybe using the proceeds to fund law enforcement around scams) and ban or surtax mining using American power sources. (Let others spike their power prices and pay us for it.)

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#132
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "inflation/deflation" argument is a red herring. The shape of mining curves is much more important than their upper limit. For all of the bluster that deflationary systems are better for the little guy because their wealth isn't eaten by inflation, the logarithmic mining curves are the biggest source of wealth consolidation seen perhaps in human history, shifting absolutely bonkers amounts of wealth from latecome…

> the logarithmic mining curves They're not logarithmic though. Most are exponential in that they are of the form Lim * (1-e^time) which might look like a log function initially, but has different asymptotics. Several coins have a quick ramp up (high block subsidy) followed by a tail emission of fixed low block subsidy. Only one coin has a pure linear emission, which helps to deter speculation.

You are right about the log thing. Can't brain in the morning.

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#133
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One argument seems to be that cryptocurrency is purely speculative, which is apparently a dirty word. What about the stock market? What about any kind of investment? Most other assets represent ownership of... something. A company, a commodity, property. Cryptocurrency is closest to either a fiat currency without the government backing that typically tries to stabilize those. Or to more exotic and abstract financia…

> Basically what's missing is the ability to even guess at the "true" value of cryptocurrency. There's no P/E ratios to consider because the only thing Crypto "produces" is Crypto transactions. It's also impossible to even guess at a floor or ceiling for the price of a cryptocurrency. The only thing that determines their price is human sentiment - a very fickle input. Interestingly, this isn't really true anymore. Mo…

As a layperson who doesn't know a whole lot about investing, this sounds like a ponzi scheme.

The way that I am interpreting this is that if I were to invest in one of these (i.e. Maker) then the returns that I would see are there purely because other people are investing in it.

That is close to what most stocks do, but at least with stocks in a company the value is not driven by the mechanism by which it is traded alone, but also by the decisions and profitability that the stocks are backing.

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#134
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One argument seems to be that cryptocurrency is purely speculative, which is apparently a dirty word. What about the stock market? What about any kind of investment? Most other assets represent ownership of... something. A company, a commodity, property. Cryptocurrency is closest to either a fiat currency without the government backing that typically tries to stabilize those. Or to more exotic and abstract financia…

> Basically what's missing is the ability to even guess at the "true" value of cryptocurrency. There's no P/E ratios to consider because the only thing Crypto "produces" is Crypto transactions. It's also impossible to even guess at a floor or ceiling for the price of a cryptocurrency. The only thing that determines their price is human sentiment - a very fickle input. Interestingly, this isn't really true anymore. Mo…

> ownership in some protocol

But what is the value of the protocol?

> actually returning profits

Are there actually profits if the protocol is worthless?

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#135
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And equally so, they should mention that scammers around the world took home a record $14 billion in cryptocurrency in 2021, thanks in large part to the rise of DeFi [1]. This is a public information campaign; the sole purpose is to provide public awareness information on digital asset security and how to ensure it remains secure. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/06/crypto-scammers-took-a-recor...

Most ICOs, NFTs and smart contracts are just more complicated versions of regular securities, that evade regulation simply by taking advantage of the time lag that authorities have in terms of understanding them and enforcing existing regulation. If you look under the hood, each supposedly decentralized, non-custodial service tends to have a centralized component coordinating or in some way controlling the entire thi…

Most do not depend on a single server for price feeds, they use a quorum of independent servers operated by different entities. The data is then combined on chain, and on chain code flags if there is disagreement on the price.

https://data.chain.link/

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#136
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, For example crypto.com offers 12% pa. on your USD account. https://crypto.com/eea/earn P/E just like normal company ...

What are you talking about? APY on a loan is not P/E.

It is a return.

And it is not loan, it is a "stake".

An example of the mumbojumbo obvious fraud that is out there.

It has nothing to do with a company making money by producing useful products or services that has actual real world value.

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#137
post #52

I’m blown away by how anti-crypto this discussion is. I hadn’t realized how negative the prevailing sentiment is on Hacker News. One argument seems to be that cryptocurrency is purely speculative, which is apparently a dirty word. What about the stock market? What about any kind of investment? If you truly believe that cryptocurrency is the basis for a superior economic system, isn’t it rational and wise to put some…

Dont underestimate people bitter they missed out on early adoption and also paid shills.

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#138
post #52

I’m blown away by how anti-crypto this discussion is. I hadn’t realized how negative the prevailing sentiment is on Hacker News. One argument seems to be that cryptocurrency is purely speculative, which is apparently a dirty word. What about the stock market? What about any kind of investment? If you truly believe that cryptocurrency is the basis for a superior economic system, isn’t it rational and wise to put some…

So, there may be more, but there are at least four types of goods one might hold:

* Consumer/durable goods meant to be used - i.e. dishwashers, houses you live in, furniture

* Appreciating assets meant to grow long-term wealth - i.e. ownership shares in productive companies expected to last a while and earn profits, houses you rent to others, land itself

* Bets and hedges - i.e. insurance policies, credit default swaps, futures contracts, the Bengals at +3500 or whatever

* A medium of exchange - some highly liquid, low fee, stable-valued token meant to be held temporarily to eliminate the need for either direct barter or trust in delayed-delivery transactions

Cryptocurrency just needs to get its story straight on which of these it is. Clearly a good can cross categories. People make bets in foreign exchange markets for currencies, as well as hedges when they actually do business internationally. Even owner-occupied housing can be seen as a strategy to grow intergenerational wealth. Beanie babies and baseball cards are consumer goods that may or may not over some limited period of time see dramatic increases in dollar-denominated value.

But fundamentally, you don't want a medium of exchange to cross over into other categories, at least not often. Rapidly decreasing value causes panic and social collapse. Rapidly increasing value encourages holding rather than spending, which brings the productive economy to a halt. Even just having direct use value may do that. You don't want collectible stamps or commemorative silver coins to be a primary medium of exchange because many holders will not want to exchange them, and same problem, the trade of real goods grinds to a halt.

Cryptocurrencies seemed to start off as a basically sound idea. Hashcash and proof of work were originally developed as anti-spam, anti-DoS measures. Make a client prove it did a bunch of useless work before it can send a request or message, as a natural rate-limiter. Satoshi came along and realized the tokens generated by this useless work have some level of fundamental value, and when traded on a blockchain, can allow for trustless transactions without the need for a single authority. All fine. But as soon as it got pulled almost entirely into the realm of speculators whose primary aim is to increase the dollar-denominated value of the tokens, it lost any potential to replace normal currency.

I don't think there is anything inherently bad or immoral about people sending each other what amounts to gigantic piles of dirt proving they have the strongest automated digging machine and convincing others who have a lot of cash that buying the dirt piles is a better wealth growing strategy than buying companies and land and other traditional investments, but it isn't exactly the revolution we were promised.

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One argument seems to be that cryptocurrency is purely speculative, which is apparently a dirty word. What about the stock market? What about any kind of investment? Most other assets represent ownership of... something. A company, a commodity, property. Cryptocurrency is closest to either a fiat currency without the government backing that typically tries to stabilize those. Or to more exotic and abstract financia…

Satoshi actually had a theory for Bitcoin pricing. He thought it would behave like gold, where over the long run the price converges to the cost of mining it. The cost to run the miners is a floor on the price, because if miners mine unprofitably eventually they go bankrupt.

So, assuming it's around that long, what happens in 2140? Infinite value?

Re: U.S. Secret Service Launches Cryptocurrency Awareness Hub

#140
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto can be an income-generating asset just like any stock that pays dividends. You can use lending protocols or act as a liquidity provider and, in many cases, have your income earned in a stable coin (such as USDC).

Hilariously, crypto has reinvented fractional reserve banking. "Staking" is just traditional fixed-duration lending, but with some weird caveats and liquidation rules borrowed from margin trading that you need to read carefully.

Most importantly, it has no real guarantee. There is no reason why our beloved Tether inc can't just vanish from its Cayman Islands headquarters one day
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