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Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

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Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#431

Post by p_l »

PinguTS wrote: post #164
raxxorrax wrote: post #2

That is not remotely pulling the plug. This is "thinking about it" again. They already stopped accreditation a few weeks ago, otherwise it would already transport gas as the pipeline is already filled. They just say that they have officially stopped the process which they more or less already did. I think in a year it might come online again if the news cycle is on another topic. Overall it will be much more expensiv…

Because Poland let the long term contracts run out and also got cheered up for this by the US to not depend on Russia, Poland is the one who buys on the spot market. The German companies buy from Gazprom under the umbrella of the cheap long term contracts and now are selling to Poland. The German companies order from Netherlands way much more then in previous years (almost double), because of long term contracts, tha…

With Poland, it was more due to internal political need to be seen as hard on Russia (and please look the other way as we buy coal from Donbas). Another leg of that strategy was buying LNG from USA, which turned out to be American companies buying russian gas in St. Petersburg ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

With the contracts, the current ruling coalition sold people the idea that they "got back" money from Gazprom over high prices of long-term contract when spot gas prices were lower. This, indeed, led to a considerable refund - but also meant we don't have guaranteed gas prices anymore, and now spot prices are much higher than they were when they renegotiated out the long-term contract ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#432

Post by CRConrad »

oytis wrote: post #319
AndyMcConachie wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't know why you got downvoted. All these Americans in this thread can have all the opinions they want. They're not getting screwed by high gas prices right now.

Not everyone in Europe is in a comfortable position where they can care about gas prices more than they care about Russian expansion.

> Not everyone in Europe is in a comfortable position where they can care about gas prices more than they care about Russian expansion.

OTOH, not everyone in Europe is in a comfortable position where they can care about Russian expansion more than they care about heating their home.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#433

Post by CRConrad »

nmehner wrote: post #230
rad_gruchalski wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uh, it’s a 30 year contract and China is also investing in Russian lng related companies: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/a-property-sells-10-... . From another source: https://lngprime.com/asia/chinas-zhejiang-energy-to-buy-stak... > Furthermore, A-Property said that the project involves building a 1358 kilometers long pipeline that would connect Yatek’s fields in Yakutia to the 18 mtpa LNG plant near Ayan o…

At the same time Europe is decarbonizing. From 2025 on most countries won't allow the installation of new gas heatings. H2 production will start in (somewhat) serious quantities in 2025. Electric cars will start to reduce oil consumption in a meaningful way (Norway is already decreasing motor gasoline consumption by 5-6% year on year). So the dependency will be reduced on both sides.

> (Norway is already decreasing motor gasoline consumption by 5-6% year on year).

Yeah, but they're a bit of an exception: The decreasing motor gasoline consumption is due to an ever larger share of cars on Norwegian roads being electric. On the whole, though, electric cars are still rather expensive, and Norway is among the countries where they have a larger market share than elsewhere because it is richer than most countries. (Ironically, in large part because it is a major exporter of... fossil fuels.)

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#434

Post by CRConrad »

starfallg wrote: post #429
3pt14159 wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has their pants on. India doesn't. They won't for a decade at the very least. China has 40% more population than Nato. Their culture is naturally harder to copy because of their extremely difficult language and tightened boarders. They work laughbly longer hours than we do in the west due to the 996 system. They're smart, make no bones about it. They're vicious when it comes to espionage and IP theft. They solv…

China still needs western markets. While western manufactures are moving production to other countries, China is learning the hard way directly selling to Western consumers. It is both costly to service western markets directly due to difference in expectations and risky due to political intervention. The fact is that China currently doesn't have an orbit. It doesn't have NATO, anything resembling the CT/TTP (the abs…

> China still needs western markets. While western manufactures are moving production to other countries, China is learning the hard way directly selling to Western consumers.

For how much longer, as it is spreading its military / geopolitical power and economic / political model to Africa and the rest of the Third World? It'll be growing its own new customer / supplier markets along with its military / geopolitical allies / clients / satellites / puppets.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#435

Post by CRConrad »

thehappypm wrote: post #338
modo_mario wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what their plan is for cushioning this. I heard they have efforts to entice people to have kids again but the now more urbanised and educated population isn't big on it. I also wonder how this will impact certain regions differently since for example the now very famous Uyghurs and some other minorities were exempt from one child policy till it ended in 2016. Will their regions fare better economically or is…

Might suggest they’re interested in creating a disease that mostly kills those too old to work.

Woo-oo-ooo....

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#436

Post by CRConrad »

littlestymaar wrote: post #126
tomp wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don’t understand this logic. Or rather, it’s easy to turn it around. Russia’s claim is basically, “this is ethnically Russian population speaking Russian”. That’s exactly the same claim that China could make about Taiwan.

> Russia’s claim is basically, “this is ethnically Russian population speaking Russian”. That’s exactly the same claim that China could make about Taiwan. And yet it's not China's claim over Taiwan (and the “speaking Russian” part is kind of difficult to transfer to China and Taiwan).

> (and the “speaking Russian” part is kind of difficult to transfer to China and Taiwan).

Isn't the main language in Taiwan the same as in south-east mainland China? (What used to be called Cantonese, but maybe it goes by another name nowadays?)

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#437

Post by syki »

dirtyid wrote: post #373
syki wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RU actions are against PRC interests in terms of international norms. They are not and I don’t believe Russia would do what it is doing in Ukraine without Chinese approval. The timing of the recent agreement between Russia and China is pretty much proof that Russia has China’s blessing. Since 1960 China has had military incursions against Vietnam, Soviet Union, and India. It has blatantly violated norms regarding the…

They are, why else would PRC stress importance of UK sovereignty in official statements. Because PRC cares about norms not noninterference if it decides to move on TW. Also, why approval and not acquiescence? Russia is not PRC puppet, there aren't comparable political arrangements unlike US and her satraps for PRC to pressure RU. >Since 1960 China You basically listed a bunch of events that are consistent with what P…

Still think you are right?

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-editor-says-must-suppo...

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#438

Post by dirtyid »

syki wrote: post #437
dirtyid wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are, why else would PRC stress importance of UK sovereignty in official statements. Because PRC cares about norms not noninterference if it decides to move on TW. Also, why approval and not acquiescence? Russia is not PRC puppet, there aren't comparable political arrangements unlike US and her satraps for PRC to pressure RU. >Since 1960 China You basically listed a bunch of events that are consistent with what P…

Still think you are right? https://www.businessinsider.com/china-editor-says-must-suppo...

Yes? Both articles support not contradict what I said. PRC recognize RU security grievances are legitimate, i.e. US/NATO at fault (just like in Taiwan scenario), but doesn't overtly support invasion that upsets stability (just like in TW scenario), wants diplomatic solution (again, just like in TW scenario). PRC doesn't want to be dragged into this drama, putting out neutral statements. As acknowledge by Uncle Ming, who recognize need to balance between support RU and not provoking US/EU. The original Ming article is about hedging the situation to be most advantageous to PRC interests. He calls for supporting RU more morally / emotionally in private, which contradicts your thesis that already RU has PRC support. The summary basically recognize current crisis is geopolitically complex and outlines what PRC should do, i.e. exactly my analysis "the geopolitical calculus is all over the place, no reason to be hasty".

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#439

Post by starfallg »

CRConrad wrote: post #434
starfallg wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China still needs western markets. While western manufactures are moving production to other countries, China is learning the hard way directly selling to Western consumers. It is both costly to service western markets directly due to difference in expectations and risky due to political intervention. The fact is that China currently doesn't have an orbit. It doesn't have NATO, anything resembling the CT/TTP (the abs…

> China still needs western markets. While western manufactures are moving production to other countries, China is learning the hard way directly selling to Western consumers. For how much longer, as it is spreading its military / geopolitical power and economic / political model to Africa and the rest of the Third World? It'll be growing its own new customer / supplier markets along with its military / geopolitical…

Yeah, I'm not saying we should be complacent but we should evaluate the situation objectively. Time to act is now, and the west should ensure that the values of liberal democracy be preserved and authoritarianism contained.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#440

Post by TwoFerMaggie »

CRConrad wrote: post #436
littlestymaar wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia’s claim is basically, “this is ethnically Russian population speaking Russian”. That’s exactly the same claim that China could make about Taiwan. And yet it's not China's claim over Taiwan (and the “speaking Russian” part is kind of difficult to transfer to China and Taiwan).

> (and the “speaking Russian” part is kind of difficult to transfer to China and Taiwan). Isn't the main language in Taiwan the same as in south-east mainland China? (What used to be called Cantonese, but maybe it goes by another name nowadays?)

There are at least two major languages (or dialects, depending on how you define it) in south-east mainland China. Cantonese and Hokkien.

Cantonese is mainly spoken in Guangdong (historically known as Canton), and Hokkien mainly Fujian. They are two very different languages.

There are a lot of people in Taiwan speaking Hokkien.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantonese

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hokkien

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