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Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

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Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is already dependant on China. Without China they would not be able to weather economic sanctions and a China-Russia (plus minor countries like Belarus) is forming a new anti-Nato block. The logical next move if the pipeline to Europe falls through is for those speedy Chinese builders to build a pipeline. Russia isn't going to defect and even if they do it wouldn't cripple China. It's in China's interest to ke…

>Personally, I don't really see a way out of this. China is going to be more powerful than Nato. This is still playing out, and I'm extremely sceptical of this take. China has a lot of domestic problems to deal with and a lack of allies due to their geo-politiking. Then you have India waiting in the wings, ready to be to China, what China was to America. Keeping in mind, we are all nuclear powers.

China has their pants on. India doesn't. They won't for a decade at the very least.

China has 40% more population than Nato. Their culture is naturally harder to copy because of their extremely difficult language and tightened boarders. They work laughbly longer hours than we do in the west due to the 996 system. They're smart, make no bones about it. They're vicious when it comes to espionage and IP theft. They solve coordination problems with a brute force hammer of "do what I say" communism which cuts both ways, yes, but it will be a while before their generational concerns catch up to them. They are going to be the dominant power ten years from now and the only thing we can do in advance of this reality is to band together and limit our dependance on them.

The time for frienship making is over. The temporary strategy will be appeasement. The long term strategy will be disengagement. They'll go after gains in Africa and the Middle East and rule with an iron fist and we'll capture what we can from Eastern Europe before the next curtain falls on the world and hopefully Central and South America will come with us too. There will be two worlds. One in China's orbit with Russia as a strong second in the same way that the US and the UK operate and one in what we currently call The West or Nato for short. The Common Wealth, United States of America, European Union, Japan and some minor Asian states like Vietnam and South Korea, Mexico, Chile, and hopiful most of the rest of Latin America.

Being a nuclear power isn't enough. To use a nuclear weapon is to escalate to Defcon 1, which risks total castatrophe for your own nation. Real material still matters and China will outmatch us soon and the sooner we recognize that and prepare for it the better.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#392
post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I agree that the US would panic, but Ukraine didn't strike any deals. They weren't in the process of joining NATO (and likely wouldn't be admitted due to "external territorial disputes") and they weren't in the process of joining the EU. In addition, the EU doesn't put military bases anywhere. This is actually untrue. Ukraine has repeatedly stated their intention to become a NATO member state. It's even written int…

> It's even written into their Constitution. It's you who is bullshitting here. That was not in Ukrainian Constitution until Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine. Before that Ukraine declared itself as a completely neutral state relying entirely on the Budapest Guarantees.

I mentioned it first but I didn't put that at the front of the chain of events. Ukraine and EU/NATO have been courting each other since the Orange Revolution. EU and NATO ascension were at the top of Viktor Yushchenko's priority list from the day he won. He was working on a NATO membership action plan right up until Victor Yanukovych became PM and the divided government killed that proposal. Then he tried again in 2008 and Russia finally came out in full opposition.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#393
post #275

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Germans can barely get their heads around nuclear energy. Pumping fluids that have been anywhere near a reactor into homes will be untenable.

I don't think this is the core problem, that would have been to build a nuclear reactor so close to a major city, that you could run a pipe to it.

SMRs operating at atmospheric pressure, or otherwise more managable due to smaller scales may alleviate that.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#394

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You can't use electricity to run your gas furnace.

Green hydrogen derivatives would make that theoretically possible. This is receiving quite a lot of attention in the EU at the moment. In practice, the stress is more on industrial processes and other primary energy use scenarios.

https://waerme.hamburg/presse-media/pressemitteilungen/wasse...

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, dependence is bad. Everyone should be growing their own food, and generating their own energy, and making their own smartphones. The basis of your point is not grounded in reality since the dawn of civilization.

Well, why is America dictating Germany that Nord Stream 2 should be cancelled? If you've watched even what publicly was shown on the TV, America is telling Germany what to do - like Germany is highly-dependent on the US somehow! Pathetic!

You completely missed the point of my comment.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#396
post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't see NATO involving itself militarily. If a US soldier dies defending Ukraine, I think that enough people will ask "why are we shedding American blood for something that has nothing to do with us?" Which is why it's been so stupid of the US and the EU to push for Ukraine's inclusion into the EU & NATO. All it has done is provoke Russia, who doesn't want foreign influence right on its borders and Ukraine isn'…

> Which is why it's been so stupid of the US and the EU to push for Ukraine's inclusion into the EU & NATO. This is an incredibly stupid (and false) thing of you to say. With all due respect and apologies. As far as we, Ukrainians, see it, we are being encouraged to be "EU worthy" or "NATO worthy", but we are being constantly told that we are years (decades) from joining either.

These things don't happen overnight. The expressed plan has always been for your country to join in the 2030s.

I'm saying it's been stupid/political suicide for the US and EU because they've both already made it clear that there is next to no strategic value of including Ukraine in these partnerships.

It shows the weakness of the EU itself because it exposes the tiered importance of member states and how some just aren't. I think the best thing for all parties involved would have been to maintain Ukraine as a neutral buffer state and make sure that it has a thriving, rich economy.

Because the alternative is the inevitable angering of Putin, who will not be made to look weak on a world stage. He would rather destroy your state's entire economy than have Russia look like it's not the dominant state in the region.

If you don't believe that the EU has been pushing for you to join, just read the various drafts of the Vilinus Summit joint declaration that went unsigned.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stopping from what? And what bigger problems?

> Stopping from what? And what bigger problems? Stopping Russia from copying 1930ies Germany and/or recreating USSR. The last 20 years Russia has been salami slicing Eastern Europe, taking one slice at the time. BTW: I think it would be a lot more consistent and believable if you didn't - in a short timespan - both try to criticise me for 1.) not wanting to give enough subsidized fuels to Europe 2.) wanting to subsid…

> Stopping Russia from copying 1930ies Germany and/or recreating USSR.

Russia is a poor country without science, technologies and a fossil fuel economy. Everything left from USSR is already fucked up or a one step from being fucked up. There are no means of production to even think about repeating smth like that. The market fall and the money which will be spent on that new "republic" is already enough to send everything to hell, not even talking about the global market fall. The only place you can get an image of it as an almighty Empire is in tv.

> The last 20 years Russia has been salami slicing Eastern Europe, taking one slice at the time.

The fact that Russia is less poor than other exUSSR republics and could easily conquer them doesn't mean that it has resources for a direct conflict with NATO, but Putin can frown intimidatingly in TV, that's for sure. 150k of military troops my ass.

> BTW: I think it would be a lot more consistent and believable if you didn't - in a short timespan - both try to criticise me for 1.) not wanting to give enough subsidized fuels to Europe 2.) wanting to subsidize fuels for Europe.

what

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which countries? Higher prices for gas will rise prices for everything, food including.

I meant all European democracies I think, temporarily[1] until we get this mess sorted. [1]: In the long run oil and gas prices should probably increase until solar and nuclear power become very profitable.

> I meant all European democracies

Russia is also a European democracy. Surprise

> I think, temporarily[1] until we get this mess sorted. > [1]: In the long run oil and gas prices should probably increase until solar and nuclear power become very profitable.

Won't happen during your lifetime.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#399

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> Russia and China are still in the 50-100 years ago mentality and will ruthlessly enforce having buffer states between major powers. And having "50-100 year ago mentality" doesn't mean "unintelligent" either, it means "no bs wokeness" and "meticulously calculating", which is a crucially important skill in modern day global politics, perhaps even more important than 50 years ago.

Yes, emphatically this. I didn't state so explicitly, but honestly the west are the ones being completely foolish here.

No post body was provided.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#400

Anyone have thoughts on how this all pans out? I think that the only way out is that Ukraine cuts off its arm to save the head. It acknowledges the territories as lost, and consolidates what it has left. But I'm not sure how they do that without: 1. The current leader losing legitimacy, and likely resigning. 2. Opening the door for other parts of Ukraine to split off. 3. Opening the door to Russia to meddle in other…

You give it the Cuban treatment (not that I think that's right for the case of Cuba..). Basically, the EU and US need to agree to completely blockade the country, limit travel to it, cut its access to global financial system, heck even cut its internet (yay less bitcoin hacks), and do absolutely everything but war for now.

IIRC Russia has prepared for its internet to be able to work independently from the rest. As for the exclusion from SWIFT, they may be able to get a deal with China, maybe Iran and some others too.
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