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Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

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Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#381

Post by agapon »

krono wrote: post #229
gwbas1c wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's much simpler than that. Invading a neighbor comes right out of the dictator's playbook. Putin's invading Ukraine to distract from his own domestic issues and to try to boost his popularity with the general Russian population. I don't think this has anything to do with China.

My pet theory is that Russia's natural resource production was looking to fall way short, so much so, even, that wouldn't be able to make their contractual obligations (i.e. international exports). This would have been an economic and political disaster. I guess we'll never know if I was right now, though, now that demand has fallen[0], supply has increased[1], and the people have been well distracted for some time t…

My personal pet theory is that Russia is afraid that practical nuclear fusion will make them irrelevant on the energy market, and by extension at all. That's why they are trying to "seize the moment" while they can.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#382

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

stjohnswarts wrote: post #360
DeathArrow wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't LNG from US be much more expensive than gas from Russia? Why would European countries pay for it?

Why would you buy gas from the country that obviously has goals of invading countries, killing people, and possibly moving into your country next? Seems like paying a bit more from a friendly country is a better idea. Russia aims to takeover Ukraine and end its "western liberalism", kill dissidents, and possibly kill/imprison LGBQT and other non-traditional groups.

I'm wondering how the Ukranian (para)militaries waving swastika-flags feel about LGBQT...

And vice versa...

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#383

Post by rosndo »

rpadovani wrote: post #290
rosndo wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d argue that the local populations are largely very happy with US presence in Europe. I know they’re very popular in Romania, being big spenders. Outside of Europe the US has obviously been up to a bunch of nasty shit, but I think we are talking about European decisionmaking here.

> I’d argue that the local populations are largely very happy with US presence in Europe. Not in Germany, where they have their biggest presence: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/deutsche-finden-a... Nor in Italy, where they have the second-biggest presence. But it is easy to understand, considering they kill civilians for fun, but get processed in US[0], and are responsible for countless violences in the c…

I’d guess that the dissatisfaction with US troops in Germany goes up based on how far the polled people are from the closest base.

It’s easy to be unhappy with some remote evils that aren’t significantly contributing to your local economy.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#384

Post by dzhiurgis »

belorn wrote: post #134
_ph_ wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear plants are not a real replacement to gas. First of all, a lot of gas gets used for heating - nuclear isn't useful there. Then it is used for providing flexible power, to ramp up and down as quickly as possible to follow the production of renewables. Only a small fraction of the gas goes into "base load" usage. So the government might look into the nuclear power plants to dampen the price level for electricity…

The only reason gas is used for heating is the historical cheap price for gas. Gas line and gas infrastructure is actually a bit expensive and require additional maintenance compared to just running electrical lines between homes, and gas heaters are generally a bit more complex to install than electric heaters. The incentives to continue with gas heaters goes down when gas prices goes up, in similar way that the inc…

Sweden has 8x less residents then Germany tho

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#385

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

_ph_ wrote: post #58
zx85wes wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been dead for a very long time. It's a carrot that Russia was never going to get. If Scholz is smart (which I doubt) he'll restart/keep open the nuclear power plants and cut taxes on gas/electricity for households to neutralise the price hikes.

Nuclear plants are not a real replacement to gas. First of all, a lot of gas gets used for heating - nuclear isn't useful there. Then it is used for providing flexible power, to ramp up and down as quickly as possible to follow the production of renewables. Only a small fraction of the gas goes into "base load" usage. So the government might look into the nuclear power plants to dampen the price level for electricity…

Maybe not with the existing ones. Otherwise a lazy search for nuclear district heat is contradicting you:

[1] https://www.nucnet.org/news/operation-begins-of-qinshan-nucl...

[2] http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202112/22/WS61c27b44a310cdd39...

[3] https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Chinese-nuclear-...

[4] https://www.neimagazine.com/news/newschinese-nuclear-compani...

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#386

Post by dzhiurgis »

raxxorrax wrote: post #301
rpadovani wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This probably explains why Germany is not supporting Ukraine with fists. And also probably because we don't want a war on our borders? Ukraine was supposed to be a buffer state between NATO and Russia, and then US promised that Ukraine would have joined NATO, and back at the time Germany and France pushed back[0]. But US has only to gain with disorders in the old continent, so here we are... [0]: https://www.nytime…

Very true, but as with the Iraq war, the guilty are easily found and support for a war quickly comes from the righteous®. Russia actually does have an argument for protecting former Russians in some countries. These are people that suddenly lost their nationality with the collapse of the soviet union and don't want to relieve it in favor of the new countries. That puts them in a situation where they are not allowed t…

> These are people that suddenly lost their nationality

No, these people are occupants. They should either deported or jailed.

Letting them stay is a democracy glitch that now terrorists like Putin is exploiting.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#387

Post by syki »

dirtyid wrote: post #373
syki wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RU actions are against PRC interests in terms of international norms. They are not and I don’t believe Russia would do what it is doing in Ukraine without Chinese approval. The timing of the recent agreement between Russia and China is pretty much proof that Russia has China’s blessing. Since 1960 China has had military incursions against Vietnam, Soviet Union, and India. It has blatantly violated norms regarding the…

They are, why else would PRC stress importance of UK sovereignty in official statements. Because PRC cares about norms not noninterference if it decides to move on TW. Also, why approval and not acquiescence? Russia is not PRC puppet, there aren't comparable political arrangements unlike US and her satraps for PRC to pressure RU. >Since 1960 China You basically listed a bunch of events that are consistent with what P…

Hardly surprising: https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/22/china/china-ukraine-russia-re...

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#388

Post by mechanical_bear »

parasense wrote: post #320
mechanical_bear wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is my grandmother going to have a house after EU lets a Russian tank drive over it?

The EU is dependent on RU energy exports. It's that simple. Noble principles do not heat homes, or feed the hungry. You are free to construct a dichotomy of tanks rumbling over homes, or homes being deprived of heating during hard winter.... but you will only succeed in illustrating the Nash Equilibrium, and fail to be persuasive otherwise. Try to look at the big picture.

I’m not sure how this illustrates Nash Equilibrium, nothing stable about this. This is just a hegemonic but declining power (USA), that provided security and stability assurances, which is no longer able to provide those assurances. Putin sees an opportunity to rebuild glory of Russian empire and distract from crushing domestic issues.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#389

Post by 3pt14159 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #162
3pt14159 wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is already dependant on China. Without China they would not be able to weather economic sanctions and a China-Russia (plus minor countries like Belarus) is forming a new anti-Nato block. The logical next move if the pipeline to Europe falls through is for those speedy Chinese builders to build a pipeline. Russia isn't going to defect and even if they do it wouldn't cripple China. It's in China's interest to ke…

> China is going to be more powerful than Nato This is a weird extrapolation. Assuming Europe remains impotent, the UK, Australia and U.S. are going to have more mobile firepower than China has total firepower for decades to come.

They have 40% more population than Nato and they don't have the same coordination costs that we do. All we have on them is soft power and economic ties. The first of which is hard to argue with but the second of which is in question.

As for mobile firepower, it takes time to invest in deployment capabilities, yes, but if their task is to dominate a specific target (vs global power projection) then they'll outmatch us within ten years. We do not have long. We need to fix our posture.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#390

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

cinntaile wrote: post #102
_ph_ wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, of course you can heat with electricity - and using heat pumps this is definitely the future. However, the amount of nuclear available would make only a small difference here. It should be much easier to just buy gas internationally and push forward with renewables.

You can also use the heat directly (district heating) without having to go to electricity and back. This limits the electricity output efficiency but increases the overall efficiency of the plant. It requires changes to the turbines and the buildout of a district heating system though.

https://waerme.hamburg/presse-media/pressemitteilungen/erneu... <- This is one such plant at the western edge of Hamburg, being remodeled for that use-case. Having recently seen workers from Statnett climbing the masts in the rain to put pilot wires to pull new wires(80MW upgrade) on one half of the masts, while hearing the 50hz-buzz about 25 to 30 meters below. Crazy Vikings! :-)
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