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Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

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Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#221

Post by nindalf »

littlestymaar wrote: post #209
nindalf wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I notice you carefully avoided mention of Korea. Were you hoping no one caught that China has dominated Korea for centuries? Or that there were failed attempts to conquer Japan? Incompetence doesn’t equal a peacenik attitude.

You can't be serious are you? In a discussion about the history of Japan Korea and China, arguing that China was “the bad guy”?! That being said, history is a poor proxy for future behavior: Japan is really unlikely to ever resume its aggressive expansionist policy, and it's not because China doesn't have a terrible track record of neighbors invasion that it will not start in this century. But that doesn't really exc…

You’re arguing in bad faith, or you simply didn’t read the comment I was replying to. That person was making an extraordinary claim - that China has been completely peaceful. I replied to that claim alone

And here you are with vitriolic claims that I was rewriting history.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#222

Post by sinyug »

starfallg wrote: post #174
3pt14159 wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is already dependant on China. Without China they would not be able to weather economic sanctions and a China-Russia (plus minor countries like Belarus) is forming a new anti-Nato block. The logical next move if the pipeline to Europe falls through is for those speedy Chinese builders to build a pipeline. Russia isn't going to defect and even if they do it wouldn't cripple China. It's in China's interest to ke…

>Personally, I don't really see a way out of this. China is going to be more powerful than Nato. This is still playing out, and I'm extremely sceptical of this take. China has a lot of domestic problems to deal with and a lack of allies due to their geo-politiking. Then you have India waiting in the wings, ready to be to China, what China was to America. Keeping in mind, we are all nuclear powers.

> India waiting in the wings, ready to be to China

Indian democracy makes this a non-starter. We cannot get simple things done because every single issue gets tied up in protests and courts for decades on end.[1][2]

[1] Indian Neutrino Observatory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India-based_Neutrino_Observato...)

[2] Tamil Nadu says ‘no’ in Supreme Court to neutrino observatory project (https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tn-says-no-in-supreme...)

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#223

Post by Friday_ »

_0w8t wrote: post #210
Friday_ wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im just saying that Germany will transition from state 1: Where it imports N amount of gas for cheap To state 2: where it imports N amount of gas expensive. Germany loses.

Yes. But this is just a cost of phasing out nuclear.

Yes, that was poor decision also. Combined with this, it is a debacle. Oh well...

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#224

Post by [deleted] »

Loic wrote: post #53

My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them more than getting them from the open market. Why? Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West (sorry for the approximation) is reacting to a country theoretically supported by the West being invaded by another one. For me, the next one on the li…

[deleted]

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#225

Post by inglor_cz »

erispoe wrote: post #88
csee wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's reasons to doubt this. First it's very short term thinking by China. Victory is assured for them if the boat isn't rocked too much and they continue the path of economic integration and economic growth. Their economy will be 2x the US economy and then they will be in a better position to assert their geopolitical interests. Second consider the consequences to China of NATO expansion in the East, which the UK…

China has a very short window of time before their demography crashes.

I wonder if China is going to go full-in into artificial wombs and "production" of new work force without need to rely on natural births.

Artificial wombs are very controversial in the West, but they seem to be technically feasible (at least experiments in other mammalian species indicate so), and an authoritarian country like China, being squeezeed by demography while having significant scientific know-how, seem to be the most likely candidates for actually trying this out on humans.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#226

Post by phkahler »

trasz wrote: post #195
Loic wrote: post #53

My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them more than getting them from the open market. Why? Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West (sorry for the approximation) is reacting to a country theoretically supported by the West being invaded by another one. For me, the next one on the li…

Except it isn't supported by China: https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-chinas-warning-against-a...

Really? You think an article in the WSJ can possibly reveal anything about the full intentions of the CCP?

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#227

Post by rosndo »

Loic wrote: post #53

My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them more than getting them from the open market. Why? Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West (sorry for the approximation) is reacting to a country theoretically supported by the West being invaded by another one. For me, the next one on the li…

This theory is ridiculous. US and Europe are Chinas primary trade partners, Russia is irrelevant in comparison.

Siding with Russia would further unify US and the EU, which is not something China desires.

China will stay out of this, they have absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose by siding with Russia.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#228

Post by rad_gruchalski »

phkahler wrote: post #217
rad_gruchalski wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uh, it’s a 30 year contract and China is also investing in Russian lng related companies: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/a-property-sells-10-... . From another source: https://lngprime.com/asia/chinas-zhejiang-energy-to-buy-stak... > Furthermore, A-Property said that the project involves building a 1358 kilometers long pipeline that would connect Yatek’s fields in Yakutia to the 18 mtpa LNG plant near Ayan o…

>> I very much think that this contract is what gave Russia the upper hand. When the Western Europe was the majority market gor Russian gas, things were status quo. Once China starts buying more and more gas from Russia, Russia doesn’t have to please Europe anymore and Europe can impose any sanctions it wants. Yep. If Europe (and Germany in particular) retaliates with economic warfare (err... sanctions) then Russia w…

Indeed. And those who say “yeah, but it’s only 36m cubic meters” kinda gloss over the fact that at any time they can simply ramp up. Those 36m m3 can be just a pilot. Those gas field in Yakutia have half a trillion m3 reserves:

> The firm said it expects Yatek’s gas reserves to rise to 567 billion cubic meters in the third quarter of 2022.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#229

Post by krono »

gwbas1c wrote: post #181
Loic wrote: post #53

My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them more than getting them from the open market. Why? Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West (sorry for the approximation) is reacting to a country theoretically supported by the West being invaded by another one. For me, the next one on the li…

It's much simpler than that. Invading a neighbor comes right out of the dictator's playbook. Putin's invading Ukraine to distract from his own domestic issues and to try to boost his popularity with the general Russian population. I don't think this has anything to do with China.

My pet theory is that Russia's natural resource production was looking to fall way short, so much so, even, that wouldn't be able to make their contractual obligations (i.e. international exports). This would have been an economic and political disaster.

I guess we'll never know if I was right now, though, now that demand has fallen[0], supply has increased[1], and the people have been well distracted for some time to come.

0: https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-stop-nord-stream-...

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_Ukraine#shale_g...

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#230

Post by nmehner »

rad_gruchalski wrote: post #146
piokoch wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is not stupid to become depended on Russian gas or oil supply. The deal they signed with Russia is for 38 billion cubic meters of gas sent through "Power of Siberia" gas pipe (for comparison, in 2006 Poland purchase from Russia 206 billion cubic meters) and this throughput will be reached in 2025. Russia has no practical way to transfer gas designated for Europe to China, there is no pipe they can use as gas co…

Uh, it’s a 30 year contract and China is also investing in Russian lng related companies: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/a-property-sells-10-... . From another source: https://lngprime.com/asia/chinas-zhejiang-energy-to-buy-stak... > Furthermore, A-Property said that the project involves building a 1358 kilometers long pipeline that would connect Yatek’s fields in Yakutia to the 18 mtpa LNG plant near Ayan o…

At the same time Europe is decarbonizing. From 2025 on most countries won't allow the installation of new gas heatings. H2 production will start in (somewhat) serious quantities in 2025. Electric cars will start to reduce oil consumption in a meaningful way (Norway is already decreasing motor gasoline consumption by 5-6% year on year).

So the dependency will be reduced on both sides.

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