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Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

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Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#211

Post by lm28469 »

Loic wrote: post #53

My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them more than getting them from the open market. Why? Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West (sorry for the approximation) is reacting to a country theoretically supported by the West being invaded by another one. For me, the next one on the li…

> Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West

It's also a test to see what's left of America's power after the Afghanistan debacle.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#212

Post by raxxorrax »

PinguTS wrote: post #164
raxxorrax wrote: post #2

That is not remotely pulling the plug. This is "thinking about it" again. They already stopped accreditation a few weeks ago, otherwise it would already transport gas as the pipeline is already filled. They just say that they have officially stopped the process which they more or less already did. I think in a year it might come online again if the news cycle is on another topic. Overall it will be much more expensiv…

Because Poland let the long term contracts run out and also got cheered up for this by the US to not depend on Russia, Poland is the one who buys on the spot market. The German companies buy from Gazprom under the umbrella of the cheap long term contracts and now are selling to Poland. The German companies order from Netherlands way much more then in previous years (almost double), because of long term contracts, tha…

I think Poland expected more support for such a decision but they basically just cut their own flesh with that. Ironically the relationship between Russia and Poland is worse than between Germany and Russia. Post-war politics seem to have a larger impact.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#214

Post by junon »

bungle wrote: post #78
_ph_ wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear plants are not a real replacement to gas. First of all, a lot of gas gets used for heating - nuclear isn't useful there. Then it is used for providing flexible power, to ramp up and down as quickly as possible to follow the production of renewables. Only a small fraction of the gas goes into "base load" usage. So the government might look into the nuclear power plants to dampen the price level for electricity…

> First of all, a lot of gas gets used for heating - nuclear isn't useful there All electricity basically turns to heat at some point. So why not?

Nobody here uses electrical heating. It's all done with radiators and the like, pretty much exclusively.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#215

Post by modo_mario »

_ph_ wrote: post #121
jb1991 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean?

The one-child policy over many years was not only successful in stopping the population growth but also completely distorted the age structure of the population. So a large part of the Chinese population is going to retire in a few years leaving behind a comparatively small work force.

I wonder what their plan is for cushioning this. I heard they have efforts to entice people to have kids again but the now more urbanised and educated population isn't big on it.

I also wonder how this will impact certain regions differently since for example the now very famous Uyghurs and some other minorities were exempt from one child policy till it ended in 2016. Will their regions fare better economically or is this taxation and application of it in elderly care, pensions, etc a more top down federal thing?

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#217

Post by phkahler »

rad_gruchalski wrote: post #146
piokoch wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is not stupid to become depended on Russian gas or oil supply. The deal they signed with Russia is for 38 billion cubic meters of gas sent through "Power of Siberia" gas pipe (for comparison, in 2006 Poland purchase from Russia 206 billion cubic meters) and this throughput will be reached in 2025. Russia has no practical way to transfer gas designated for Europe to China, there is no pipe they can use as gas co…

Uh, it’s a 30 year contract and China is also investing in Russian lng related companies: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/a-property-sells-10-... . From another source: https://lngprime.com/asia/chinas-zhejiang-energy-to-buy-stak... > Furthermore, A-Property said that the project involves building a 1358 kilometers long pipeline that would connect Yatek’s fields in Yakutia to the 18 mtpa LNG plant near Ayan o…

>> I very much think that this contract is what gave Russia the upper hand. When the Western Europe was the majority market gor Russian gas, things were status quo. Once China starts buying more and more gas from Russia, Russia doesn’t have to please Europe anymore and Europe can impose any sanctions it wants.

Yep. If Europe (and Germany in particular) retaliates with economic warfare (err... sanctions) then Russia will simply turn off Nordstream 1. Options to sell to China instead make this much easier for them to do. Maybe there isn't currently a good way to deliver, but have you seen how fast China can build stuff if they really want to?

This idea of Germany voting not to turn on a pipeline that is currently not turned on is just an attempt to make it look like they're doing something when in fact, they are not doing anything.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#218

Post by TwoFerMaggie »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #125
tomp wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don’t understand this logic. Or rather, it’s easy to turn it around. Russia’s claim is basically, “this is ethnically Russian population speaking Russian”. That’s exactly the same claim that China could make about Taiwan.

> That’s exactly the same claim that China could make about Taiwan It’s also the same claim Western non-Han China could make about itself, or India could make about Tibet.

Problem is autocrats don't care about consistency at all, nor do they have to maintain an public image of consistency (maybe not just autocrats, perhaps modern politicians in general).

This "if I apply the same logic to this other thing you did" simply doesn't work other than as a gotcha title for the media in opposition. Stories/opinions will be drown out by misinformation and propaganda.

It's even easier especially for autocrats, because if you ask them "isn't that the same claim Western non-Han China could make about itself?", they can just pretend not hearing the question and let the ministry of truth do the work.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#219

Post by darebak »

twelve40 wrote: post #206
darebak wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The cornerstone of European piece policy has been the integrity of state borders. This is now violated, so this is of very grave concern. Now? What about Kosovo* and to lesser degree other conflicts in ex-Yugoslavia? Germany even had an active role in that.

hypocricy is unreal Montenegro gets to declare independence, but Republika Srpska doesn't because Serbs don't matter. Kosovo must be recognized as an "independent country" right next to Albania, but Eastern Ukraine never. South Sudan, Eritrea, the list of "approved" places that are permitted independence, goes on and on.

Montenegro is different because everyone involved agreed on the referendum and there was legal basis for independence, even though it only passed by a couple hundred votes and with voter suppression but other than that it's a perfectly valid referendum.

Kosovo* is more comparable to Srpska in Bosnia or Krajina in Croatia, or Crimea and Donbass. While Montenegro is more like Scotland situation in the UK.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#220

Post by modo_mario »

Arnt wrote: post #135
Loic wrote: post #53

My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them more than getting them from the open market. Why? Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West (sorry for the approximation) is reacting to a country theoretically supported by the West being invaded by another one. For me, the next one on the li…

According to the Wikipedia articles on the various pipelines, there is some technical readiness, at least 3%. As of today, the only operational pipeline carries about 3% of what Gazprom exports to Europe. It may be possible to boost that quickly, and the pipeline will eventually have a capacity of 30-40% of the European exports.

And this helps to prevent Ukraine and other such eastern companies from having political pressure since instability there or intent to close the pipes to deprive Russia of revenue can just be sidestepped
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