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Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

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Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#131

Post by kerneloftruth »

Loic wrote: post #53

My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them more than getting them from the open market. Why? Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West (sorry for the approximation) is reacting to a country theoretically supported by the West being invaded by another one. For me, the next one on the li…

Putin and Xi see the comprehensive weakness of the Biden administration (it's as though projecting an image of weakness and incompetence was the administration's goal), and in that they see historic opportunity. Afghanistan proved their perceptions true.

Yes, I think Taiwan will be back in China's hands by the end of the year.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#132

Post by jonathanstrange »

Friday_ wrote: post #5

Quoted post unavailable.

Putin failed to create a diverse economy and instead relied on exporting natural resources (part of his "thesis" he wrote for the KGB studies), so this can hurt him. Germany, on the other hand, needs to diversify their oil and gas imports to gain more independence from Russia for geopolitical reasons, as the Russian government has just illustrated that they are dangerous and unreliable. So the step makes sense.

It doesn't suffice, though. The sanctions would have to be all-encompassing, similar to the ones that were imposed on Iran, in order to have a strong effect.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#133

Post by ravel-bar-foo »

littlestymaar wrote: post #114
piokoch wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is not stupid to become depended on Russian gas or oil supply. The deal they signed with Russia is for 38 billion cubic meters of gas sent through "Power of Siberia" gas pipe (for comparison, in 2006 Poland purchase from Russia 206 billion cubic meters) and this throughput will be reached in 2025. Russia has no practical way to transfer gas designated for Europe to China, there is no pipe they can use as gas co…

> Taiwan, Philippines, Japan... Come on, China is bad enough as it is, no need to overdo it with imaginary threats. (Edit: wow impressed by how fast these downvotes came. I wonder if it was triggered by the “China is bad” part or my point that a Chinese invasion of Japan or Philippines is a complete fantasy. In case it's the second part, you should probably take a break from American news…)

While Japan may be a stretch, it is not an exaggeration that China has designs on the territorial waters of the Phillipines and Vietnam and currently lodges diplomatic protests when Koreans flaunt their traditional culture, revealing something that looks like an expectation of tribute.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#134

Post by belorn »

_ph_ wrote: post #58
zx85wes wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been dead for a very long time. It's a carrot that Russia was never going to get. If Scholz is smart (which I doubt) he'll restart/keep open the nuclear power plants and cut taxes on gas/electricity for households to neutralise the price hikes.

Nuclear plants are not a real replacement to gas. First of all, a lot of gas gets used for heating - nuclear isn't useful there. Then it is used for providing flexible power, to ramp up and down as quickly as possible to follow the production of renewables. Only a small fraction of the gas goes into "base load" usage. So the government might look into the nuclear power plants to dampen the price level for electricity…

The only reason gas is used for heating is the historical cheap price for gas. Gas line and gas infrastructure is actually a bit expensive and require additional maintenance compared to just running electrical lines between homes, and gas heaters are generally a bit more complex to install than electric heaters. The incentives to continue with gas heaters goes down when gas prices goes up, in similar way that the incentives for electric heaters will go down when the electricity prices goes up.

If we compare Sweden to Germany, almost no homes in Sweden has gas lines connected to them. Swedish homes use heated up water (central or communal heating), or just heat up the air. Sweden has a lot of nuclear and hydro so the electricity prices has historically been low, and importing gas would be expensive. There have been few incentives to spend money and government resources into the infrastructure needed for gas. Germany in contrast seems to have done the opposite, with historical low prices for gas (didn't the coal industry produce also produce gas in the past?), and fairly high prices for electricity. By now there is a pretty large sunk costs into gas infrastructures, and a switch to electric heating would be both expensive for the government and for individual home owners.

On the positive side, a massive investment towards electric heating would be a major boon for the environment. Leaks from natural gas is considered a major contributor for green house gases, and burning it also not very good.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#135

Post by Arnt »

Loic wrote: post #53

My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them more than getting them from the open market. Why? Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West (sorry for the approximation) is reacting to a country theoretically supported by the West being invaded by another one. For me, the next one on the li…

According to the Wikipedia articles on the various pipelines, there is some technical readiness, at least 3%.

As of today, the only operational pipeline carries about 3% of what Gazprom exports to Europe. It may be possible to boost that quickly, and the pipeline will eventually have a capacity of 30-40% of the European exports.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#136

Post by darebak »

zx85wes wrote: post #72
mcv wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was unaware it was dead. I was under the impression that despite the brewing trouble with Russia, Germany was planning to use this pipe to buy more Russian gas. It's possible that Scholtz has different ideas about that than Merkel, I suppose.

The SPD has always been on the moderate side when it comes to Russia. His Green coalition partners are NATO hawks though.

>His Green coalition partners are NATO hawks though.

What's their reasoning?

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#139

Post by davewritescode »

cute_boi wrote: post #25
_ph_ wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gas is one of the few large sources of income in Russia. Reducing the gas trade is one of the few really direct sanctions possible. Even if it comes at a price, it is way better than to start shooting.

This is a reason sanctions don't work as people expect. China will simply buy those valuable gas. I do acknowledge that there would be transportation costs. In the end, Europe will suffer more and China will be happier. And, currently, with the price hike on gas, I think the EU will face more problems. Geopolitics is not a game of morality, rather it's a game of logic. China, the US, and Russia seem to be playing ver…

What are you talking about? This isn't about logic at all, if it were Putin wouldn't be putting troops in Ukraine. This is about saving face and not looking weak because one of his biggest fears (rightfully so) is ending up like Gaddafi.

There's literally nothing here for Russia to win, the west is rapidly moving away from fossil fuels and this will accelerate that. China may scoop up excess gas but it will be significantly less profitable for Russia.

Here's what Russia will be dealing with:

* Russians own significant assets in the west. These assets are vulnerable to seizure. These assets are held by the ultra wealthy Russians that keep Putin in power.

* The war is already unpopular in Russia. It's one thing to fight a war against a foreign enemy and another to fight a war against people who share common values and culture. 20k Russians showing up home in body bags will not help.

* Ukraine is in a significantly better place to defend itself.

There is no win here for Putin, only suffering the Russian people. At some point, a Russian version of the Arab spring is a possible outcome.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#140

Post by chess_buster »

Helmut10001 wrote: post #110

Germany has run on 60% Wind power alone in January and February so far, even exported energy to France (because their nuclear power is in bad shape) and Poland (coal power plants are just too expensive). Just another motivation to get rid of the old power sources as soon as possible. North Stream 2 never made sense.

This is correct in regard of electricity, yes.
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