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Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

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Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#81

Post by major505 »

Loic wrote: post #53

My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them more than getting them from the open market. Why? Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West (sorry for the approximation) is reacting to a country theoretically supported by the West being invaded by another one. For me, the next one on the li…

I don't think china is too happy about this separatist support since this sets a precedent for territories they consider separatists like Taiwan.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#82

Post by csee »

Loic wrote: post #53

My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them more than getting them from the open market. Why? Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West (sorry for the approximation) is reacting to a country theoretically supported by the West being invaded by another one. For me, the next one on the li…

There's reasons to doubt this.

First it's very short term thinking by China. Victory is assured for them if the boat isn't rocked too much and they continue the path of economic integration and economic growth. Their economy will be 2x the US economy and then they will be in a better position to assert their geopolitical interests.

Second consider the consequences to China of NATO expansion in the East, which the UK has started to discuss as a good idea in the last few days. That is not good for China's geopolitical position.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#83

Post by another_why »

croes wrote: post #70
vanilla-almond wrote: post #54

A related report from the BBC (published a few days ago): Europe gas prices: How far is Russia responsible? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/58888451 Some key points in the BBC article: - Russia supplies about 40% of the EU’s natural gas imports. Most of the rest comes from Norway and Algeria. - Russia sends gas to Europe through several main pipelines - such as the Nord Stream, the Yamal-Europe and the Brotherhood (see th…

>This leads to the conclusion that Gazprom is supplying the volumes... under its long-term contracts - but it is not providing additional volumes beyond those contracts," says Jack Sharples, of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Question is, was gas ordered? I doubt anyone delivers without order. According to Gazprom the orders came only february 2nd.

If I remember right, they refused to sign a new contract with Russia and tried to buy it spot as a matter of "economy"

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#84

Post by protontorpedo »

Loic wrote: post #53

My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them more than getting them from the open market. Why? Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West (sorry for the approximation) is reacting to a country theoretically supported by the West being invaded by another one. For me, the next one on the li…

No post body was provided.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#85

Post by twelve40 »

Bud wrote: post #23
twelve40 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany continues to buy the same amount of natural gas from Russia as before, except half of that gas will now have to continue to go through flaky, expensive, thieving middlemen. What a great plan.

1) No, this is not what will happen 2) Russia is already flaky, expensive, and thieving.

> 1) No, this is not what will happen

Can you include some links since you seem to be so certain? Both Nord Stream 1 and the land pipeline are still active, I'm not aware of any plans to stop those, maybe you are?

> 2) Russia is already flaky, expensive, and thieving.

It's most certainly not nearly as expensive as Qatar or US LNG. Do you care to list some links or did you just make this up? Also, when did it steal natgas from Germany, exactly?

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#86

Post by raxxorrax »

_ph_ wrote: post #58
zx85wes wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been dead for a very long time. It's a carrot that Russia was never going to get. If Scholz is smart (which I doubt) he'll restart/keep open the nuclear power plants and cut taxes on gas/electricity for households to neutralise the price hikes.

Nuclear plants are not a real replacement to gas. First of all, a lot of gas gets used for heating - nuclear isn't useful there. Then it is used for providing flexible power, to ramp up and down as quickly as possible to follow the production of renewables. Only a small fraction of the gas goes into "base load" usage. So the government might look into the nuclear power plants to dampen the price level for electricity…

It also isn't politically feasible. Nuclear power needs subsidies and I doubt a green government will restart those. Government can be impulsive, but I don't see that happening again.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#87

Post by _ph_ »

yostrovs wrote: post #42
_ph_ wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is dead for all purposes unless the political climate changes radically. Whatever the Russian plans for a gas supplier to Germany were, they are limited to what the existing pipelines can deliver. I hope, we can reduce the dependency on Russian gas quickly, even if it means the additional effort of shipping LNG from the US or other sources. Mid-term it should be highest priority to get rid of fossil fuels as quick…

Germany doesn't care about Ukraine. They have to look like they do. Once the Ukrainian issue settles down again like it did after 2014 and everyone in the west moves on to other things, Germany will simply push the start button and gas will flow.

No, certainly not. First of all, Germany does care about the Ukraine. Both on a political level as on a social one. Many Germany have friendships with people from Ukraine. I myself have several in my wider social circle.

There is also the European perspective. The cornerstone of European piece policy has been the integrity of state borders. This is now violated, so this is of very grave concern.

Putin himself stated yesterday, that he considers the Ukraine a part of Russia, so there is concern that he won't stop anytime soon, unless stopped. Ironically, an occupation of the Ukraine makes him what he claimed to try to prevent - a direct neighbor to the NATO states. We can only hope he stops before attacking NATO.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#88

Post by erispoe »

csee wrote: post #82
Loic wrote: post #53

My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them more than getting them from the open market. Why? Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West (sorry for the approximation) is reacting to a country theoretically supported by the West being invaded by another one. For me, the next one on the li…

There's reasons to doubt this. First it's very short term thinking by China. Victory is assured for them if the boat isn't rocked too much and they continue the path of economic integration and economic growth. Their economy will be 2x the US economy and then they will be in a better position to assert their geopolitical interests. Second consider the consequences to China of NATO expansion in the East, which the UK…

China has a very short window of time before their demography crashes.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#89

Post by jb1991 »

erispoe wrote: post #88
csee wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's reasons to doubt this. First it's very short term thinking by China. Victory is assured for them if the boat isn't rocked too much and they continue the path of economic integration and economic growth. Their economy will be 2x the US economy and then they will be in a better position to assert their geopolitical interests. Second consider the consequences to China of NATO expansion in the East, which the UK…

China has a very short window of time before their demography crashes.

What do you mean?

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#90

Post by csee »

erispoe wrote: post #88
csee wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's reasons to doubt this. First it's very short term thinking by China. Victory is assured for them if the boat isn't rocked too much and they continue the path of economic integration and economic growth. Their economy will be 2x the US economy and then they will be in a better position to assert their geopolitical interests. Second consider the consequences to China of NATO expansion in the East, which the UK…

China has a very short window of time before their demography crashes.

South Korea's demography is crashed but their economic growth is still strong. There is more to growth than that. There's no reason why China can't double its GDP in the next few decades and then assert itself much more strongly after it has achieved that.
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