Putin has placed his bet on the flop, and Biden and NATO have now called it and re-raised. (This wasn't done by Germany in a vacuum.)
Now we get to see if Putin will double down.
Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline
41–50 of 470 posts
Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline
#42That is not remotely pulling the plug. This is "thinking about it" again. They already stopped accreditation a few weeks ago, otherwise it would already transport gas as the pipeline is already filled. They just say that they have officially stopped the process which they more or less already did. I think in a year it might come online again if the news cycle is on another topic. Overall it will be much more expensiv…
It is dead for all purposes unless the political climate changes radically. Whatever the Russian plans for a gas supplier to Germany were, they are limited to what the existing pipelines can deliver. I hope, we can reduce the dependency on Russian gas quickly, even if it means the additional effort of shipping LNG from the US or other sources. Mid-term it should be highest priority to get rid of fossil fuels as quick…
Germany doesn't care about Ukraine. They have to look like they do. Once the Ukrainian issue settles down again like it did after 2014 and everyone in the west moves on to other things, Germany will simply push the start button and gas will flow.
Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline
#43Remember like a week ago when the Germany navy said the idea that Russia wanted to invade Ukraine was nonsense? Fools.
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Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline
#44Thanks Germans. Paying our gas bill will be fun here in the Netherlands.
Norwegian here. We are probably already raking in millions extra today as prices soars, but if there was a referendum vote tonight and if could vote to not take advantage of the situation but rather help fellow Europeans that would be my vote. I guess I am not alone.
How noble. What about poor European countries, will you pay for their gas too? Or they will pay for your opportunity of being "noble"?
Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline
#45Here's some quick numbers I just googled to understand the big picture.
This pipeline has an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic meters. It's the same capacity as the Nord Stream 1, which is already in operation. If Germany was truly meaning business, they'd stop Nord Stream 1 the moment Russian boots enter Ukrainian territory. But let's leave that aside.
55 billion cubic meters translate to about 0.6 billion MWh. The price today for natural gas Dutch TTF futures is EUR 78/MWh [1] , so that translates in about 40 billion EUR per year. It has been as low as EUR 13 and as high as EUR 165 over the last 2 years. It's quite likely that Russia would make a profit even at the lower range, so the 40 billion EUR/year is pretty much pure profit for them.
[1] https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futur...
Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
Gas is one of the few large sources of income in Russia. Reducing the gas trade is one of the few really direct sanctions possible. Even if it comes at a price, it is way better than to start shooting.
This is a reason sanctions don't work as people expect. China will simply buy those valuable gas. I do acknowledge that there would be transportation costs. In the end, Europe will suffer more and China will be happier. And, currently, with the price hike on gas, I think the EU will face more problems. Geopolitics is not a game of morality, rather it's a game of logic. China, the US, and Russia seem to be playing ver…
If China is not dumb (it isn't) they will pay that gas a fraction of what Europe is paying it, "or keep it underground." Unless they want to subsidize Russia against the USA. Europe doesn't matter. Every crisis shows that's only a geographical expression (I'm European.)
Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
"green" in so far as having a history of helping the construction of LNG terminals to import american gas.
The point is German Green party has the most anti-authoritarian external political stance of all, and have been opposed to Nord Stream II from the very beginning. They might exchange it for compromise on something else, sure, but will have to explain it to their own party members.
Not against shale gas which is worse than natural gas. They opposed it because of environmental concerns of fossil fuels. It would be much better to just get gas from Russia, which we did for several decades.
Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline
#48That's dumb. What they should do instead is tax the gas that will flow through North Stream 2 to be as expensive as the one going through other routes and transfer this tax directly to Ukraine budget as aid let's say for the next 30 years, irrevocably.
And possibly partially to Poland because it has very similar concerns but to a lesser degree than Ukraine.
Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is dead for all purposes unless the political climate changes radically. Whatever the Russian plans for a gas supplier to Germany were, they are limited to what the existing pipelines can deliver. I hope, we can reduce the dependency on Russian gas quickly, even if it means the additional effort of shipping LNG from the US or other sources. Mid-term it should be highest priority to get rid of fossil fuels as quick…
It's been dead for a very long time. It's a carrot that Russia was never going to get. If Scholz is smart (which I doubt) he'll restart/keep open the nuclear power plants and cut taxes on gas/electricity for households to neutralise the price hikes.
I was unaware it was dead. I was under the impression that despite the brewing trouble with Russia, Germany was planning to use this pipe to buy more Russian gas. It's possible that Scholtz has different ideas about that than Merkel, I suppose.
Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline
#50Thanks Germans. Paying our gas bill will be fun here in the Netherlands.
Norwegian here. We are probably already raking in millions extra today as prices soars, but if there was a referendum vote tonight and if could vote to not take advantage of the situation but rather help fellow Europeans that would be my vote. I guess I am not alone.
I see that even among Norwegian greens there is growing understanding that drilling for more gas is perhaps lesser evil, as it reduce dependence on Russian gas in Europe.