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Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

vaghetti.dev

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Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#191

Post by visarga »

Terry_Roll wrote: post #136
JohnBooty wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would expect layers of abstraction to continue to build up and programming to become something like using spreadsheets to do your actual task. But in general, people have been saying this for 50+ years. It hasn't happened yet for (at least) two reasons. 1. Increased demands on programmers have increased at least as quickly as their productivity has skyrocketed. 2. Non-trivial systems will require some non-trivial e…

> 1. Increased demands on programmers have increased at least as quickly as their productivity has skyrocketed. So does anyone know what the most productive programming tool is then?

I think it's the code library. You import stuff and use it right away, without needing to know 99% of the internal details. That has empowered us to do amazing things quickly. But having to deal with 100,000 libraries has become its own problem.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#192

Post by visarga »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #149
mrtksn wrote: post #17

I think it ends with everyone becoming a developer. Making machines do things will never end. However, the tools for making machines do things is evolving very quickly. The general art of being a developer will continue to get specialized and at some point specialists at any field would be expected to be able to program their machines. Very few people are learning how to run their servers and much more are moving int…

In a few thousand years, programming will be a forgotten profession and only program archeologists will remain to scavenge code from the past into uses for the present. At least that’s what Verner Vinge wrote in one of his science fiction books.

> only program archeologists will remain to scavenge code from the past into uses for the present

You mean CODEX like AIs?

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#193

Post by picture_view »

DarkCrusader2 wrote: post #186
vparikh wrote: post #128

All it takes is two things: 1. The investor bubble to bust - and I think this will happen due to the soon to be rising interest rates making capital much more difficult too secure. 2. One of the big employers dumps devs into the market - say one of the FAANG companies has a sever downturn and lays of thousands of devs. Don't think it can happen - Facebook and Google are just a few regulations away from mass lay offs…

> rising interest rates making capital much more difficult too secure. Can someone please explain this to me or point me to some reading material. How does interest rates and investment in tech companies are related? How do we know that interest rates are going to rise soon?

I can’t answer about the relation to tech investment, but the federal reserve has a meeting every month and they have been explicitly saying for the last few meetings that they intend to raise interest rates several times this year.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#194

Post by withinboredom »

toomanydoubts wrote: post #35
withinboredom wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m aloud to pretty much expense any tool at work as long as I can justify it. I’ve never been asked to justify it, but that’s the rule. I think I probably expense a hundred bucks a month on tools.

Care to share which tools are these? I've been in the field for several years and can't remember the last time I shelled money for a tool. What cool stuff am I missing?

Mostly ngrok, grammarly (for documentation), postman and IntelliJ.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#195

Post by visarga »

Apocryphon wrote: post #145
strken wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kids learn how to read, write, and speak at least one language. Kids who learn two or more presumably turn into better translators. Potential lawyers have access to debate clubs and are trained in public speaking. I know one HVAC technician, and he's been working on cars and bikes with his dad since early childhood. Even doctors get taught biology. I pretty firmly believe nearly anyone can learn to contribute in any…

No, the controversial statement in question was the claim that "18 is awfully old to start learning something for the first time" wrt programming.

It's late only if you want to become a top programmer. Top programmers are like top pianists, they start early and are very motivated.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#196

Post by withinboredom »

MattGaiser wrote: post #80
withinboredom wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m aloud to pretty much expense any tool at work as long as I can justify it. I’ve never been asked to justify it, but that’s the rule. I think I probably expense a hundred bucks a month on tools.

Please make a list for the rest of us and post about it.

I shared it in a sibling comment.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#197

Post by visarga »

pech0rin wrote: post #111
CydeWeys wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

18 is awfully old to start learning something for the first time. Imagine saying the same thing about math, reading, or history. It's harder to pick things up when you're older, and it leaves fewer people capable of it. See also: learning human languages.

This is absolutely false. I became fluent in Japanese in my 30s. Learned guitar in my late 20s. This is so wrong. You can continue learning until you are dead.

> I became fluent in Japanese in my 30s.

Me too, but I will never reach close to native level of proficiency. It's fun but just that.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#198

Post by [deleted] »

smrtinsert wrote: post #115
300bps wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it ends with everyone becoming a developer Not in a million years. When I was 10 I got my first computer and spent 12-16 hours per day on it every day learning BASIC, 6502 Assembly and many other languages. All the adults at the time thought, “this is how all kids will be from now on!” Except none of my peers did it. The generation after me only had a small percentage of people truly interested in computers a…

This is something I've realized as well. There's only a few of us that are excited to do this work and that's what you need to do it longterm.

[deleted]

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#199

Post by skywal_l »

gieksosz wrote: post #183
LAC-Tech wrote: post #176

I feel like we have so much leverage and don't use it at all. We're still attending stand-ups every day with non programmers telling us when we can and cannot refactor. It's nuts to me that a skilled profession - that not many can do - lets themselves get micro-managed like this. If anyone has read Developer Hegemony , I'm fully on board with that general premise - we start operating like lawyers with partnerships, a…

There are such partnerships, they are called dev agencies. Usually good for partners themselves, less so for rank and file employees.

Exactly like any lawyer firm.

Re: Times are great for programmers now. How does it end?

#200

Post by jeffreygoesto »

LAC-Tech wrote: post #176

I feel like we have so much leverage and don't use it at all. We're still attending stand-ups every day with non programmers telling us when we can and cannot refactor. It's nuts to me that a skilled profession - that not many can do - lets themselves get micro-managed like this. If anyone has read Developer Hegemony , I'm fully on board with that general premise - we start operating like lawyers with partnerships, a…

Maybe because programming in itself is not valued? Changing things with automation is, thus you need to have the right mix of domain knowledge and solution skills to be successful. As these often are not found in one person (exceptions confirm the rule of course ;-}), you need a number of people collaborating. Appreciation for the "other" side takes time and can only grow with mutual trust backed up by joint success.

Only pretending to know the domain and micro-managing into the "other side" is real and not helpful, as you wrote. This applies to programmers as well, they often mouth about how they know what would be best for the company and in reality just don't know all the constraints and background on the business side. Let alone how much of a social game creating software for others really is.

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