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No one cared about my spreadsheets

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Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#141

Post by henrikschroder »

xyzzyz wrote: post #123
henrikschroder wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> His book is mostly about the signalling and human capital models of education. The vast majority of post-secondary students say they attend post-secondary education in order to increase their future earnings So what about the partying, making friends for life, and learning to be an adult? What about care-free student life as a carrot to incentivise young adults to go into careers that might not be good for them per…

If you read his book, like it was already suggested to you a couple of times, you'd know what he says about "care-free student life". This way, you would be able to address his actual positions, instead of arguing against a version of Caplan you've conjured in your mind, based on a single blog post and a few HN comments.

So what does he say about care-free student life?

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#142

Post by betwixthewires »

Brian_K_White wrote: post #77

In another HN post recently a commenter said something about the stock market, and they invoked an image of people collecting money from Brownian movement. It struck me that comment was excellent and insightful, and was only possible because both the commenter and myself were once taught something that neither of us uses in our day jobs, and may never have learned through any normal self-driven persuit. The more I he…

If the benefit is not quantifiable then how is it possible to draw the conclusion that there is a benefit (or negative impact on the same token) in the first place?

If the price of education is quantifiable and the debt for it enforceable, then the benefit better be quantifiable.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#143

Post by stevemk14ebr »

jdminhbg wrote: post #51
lozenge wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the spreadsheet showed education was a net positive, would Caplan accept this and rewrite the book, or would he go looking for more factors and adjustments that could "correct" its result. If he can't accept a spreadsheet showing a positive impact of education, why would the world accept a spreadsheet showing a negative impact of education.

> If the spreadsheet showed education was a net positive, would Caplan accept this and rewrite the book Caplan is definitely the type of person who would either rewrite on not write the book in that case. But this an implausible question anyway, because it’s not like you get this far into a project without an idea of what the evidence is telling you, waiting to press a button and out if it’s actually Good or Bad.

> either rewrite on not write the book in that case

Your comment doesn't actually answer anything lol - he would - or wouldn't and you say both

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#144

Post by a123b456c »

thekashifmalik wrote: post #129

This particular excerpt resonated with me: > It’s hard to avoid a disheartening conclusion: Quantitative social science is barely relevant in the real world – and almost every social scientist covertly agrees. The complex math that researchers use is disposable. You deploy it to get a publication, then move on with your career. When it comes time to give policy advice, the math is AWOL. If you’re lucky, researchers d…

Two possible counter arguments:

1) The people who do the math are too busy read these articles and books.

2) Amazon has 15 phd economists running a single structural model of consumer behavior. They use it to inform feature changes.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#145

Post by haltingproblem »

zwieback wrote: post #7

Has anyone here read the book? I have a hard time imagining that a technical education (e.g. engineering, physics, forestry, chemistry) would be worthless if someone wants to work in that field. Social sciences however... but of course I'm biased there.

I have been interviewing a ton lately for software developers and it invokes a visceral reaction to see students with a technical education spend two years and tens of thousands of dollars getting a masters degree in "data science". These folks basically spend two years learning what they can pick up in a few coursera and youtube classes which is basically how to "operate" scikit learn.

Which made me realize even in my CS degree all the "useful" courses could fit into one semester and the rest was just learnt the old fashioned (read: medieval) apprentice way - osmosis from being around other practitioners.

Paraphrasing the great Yogi - thing change yet so much remains the same.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#146

Post by orangecat »

Brian_K_White wrote: post #59
zwieback wrote: post #7

Has anyone here read the book? I have a hard time imagining that a technical education (e.g. engineering, physics, forestry, chemistry) would be worthless if someone wants to work in that field. Social sciences however... but of course I'm biased there.

What are the quanta of having some % of all societies members be some % more thoughtful people than they would have been had they never had to face ideas in school? It's not something that can be reduced to metrics except possibly on the scale of entire countries over timespans of multiple generations, and even then the effects are probably not seperable from countless other factors because there are no two or more o…

What are the quanta of having some % of all societies members be some % more thoughtful people than they would have been had they never had to face ideas in school?

This assumes that "facing ideas" happens in school and not the real world, which is questionable on both sides.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#147

Post by henrikschroder »

ekianjo wrote: post #126
henrikschroder wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> His book is mostly about the signalling and human capital models of education. The vast majority of post-secondary students say they attend post-secondary education in order to increase their future earnings So what about the partying, making friends for life, and learning to be an adult? What about care-free student life as a carrot to incentivise young adults to go into careers that might not be good for them per…

If Caplan is right it should be a personal choice not subsidized by government

That sounds like a utilitarian dystopia.

Where I'm from, universities don't charge tuition, but you still get a small allowance as a student, and you can add on to that with a student loan to cover living costs. Loan interest and repayments are the same for everyone and based on your salary, it's all backed by the government, and if you don't pay back your loans before the age of 65, your loan is forgiven.

Given all of this, it is much easier to calculate if an education is "worth it" or not than in the US market, because you can look at average salary progression in different fields to do a pretty good estimate of whether or not you'll repay your student loan before retirement. These calculations are routinely done by unions and career guides and university recruiters, and the usual suspects are worth it; STEM education, medicine, MBAs etc, while the more liberal-artsy you get, the more likely you are to never ever repay your student debt and therefore be a "bad" investment of educational budgets.

And you know what? I'm fine with that. I'm fine with government subsidizing all of these "bad" educational programmes. For the fun of it. For the hell of it. Because some people like it. I am happily paying taxes so that someone else can get an education in ancient Peruvian anthropology with a minor in medieval French poetry for the absolute sheer fucking delight of it.

The goal of society is happiness, not productivity.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#148

Post by mvhvv »

chasil wrote: post #114
taeric wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not even sure what you are suggesting, to be honest. My point was that if you want scores to improve, you will have to pay more. Pretty much period. You don't get improvement, at any level, for free. Certainly not by cutting funding. Keeping the same level of funding will at best tread water. Likely, the area will fall, though. And I certainly wouldn't be comfortable pushing that outcome.

What I would say to your assertion is this. I am the last person, hired in 2000, that has stayed with our division/site within our company, who enjoys what they do (Oracle DBA). Everyone hired since has been gone within 3 years. We are hiring the wrong people, and I'm starting to quietly state that fact. We need to hire people with an appreciation of computing history, specifically with a desire to learn VMS and OS22…

If you're going to maintain ancient legacy systems and refuse to modernise, then really your inability to attract talent is your company's own fault. I love computing history, but a career in computing is a learning pathway too.

If your staff are only learning skills they can't apply elsewhere, they're going to feel trapped. I left my last position as a systems integrator because I wasn't learning anything other than how to slap together off-the-shelf solutions and bullshit clients.

If you want new people to stay and you can't teach them skills that are valuable elsewhere, then you need to pay exceptionally well and reassure your staff that their jobs are stable. Ideally including contractually obligated recurring pay increases.

For someone with a 40 year career ahead of them, anything less will always feel like a risky dead-end.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#149

Post by [deleted] »

a123b456c wrote: post #144
thekashifmalik wrote: post #129

This particular excerpt resonated with me: > It’s hard to avoid a disheartening conclusion: Quantitative social science is barely relevant in the real world – and almost every social scientist covertly agrees. The complex math that researchers use is disposable. You deploy it to get a publication, then move on with your career. When it comes time to give policy advice, the math is AWOL. If you’re lucky, researchers d…

Two possible counter arguments: 1) The people who do the math are too busy read these articles and books. 2) Amazon has 15 phd economists running a single structural model of consumer behavior. They use it to inform feature changes.

[deleted]

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#150

Post by jmeister »

a123b456c wrote: post #144
thekashifmalik wrote: post #129

This particular excerpt resonated with me: > It’s hard to avoid a disheartening conclusion: Quantitative social science is barely relevant in the real world – and almost every social scientist covertly agrees. The complex math that researchers use is disposable. You deploy it to get a publication, then move on with your career. When it comes time to give policy advice, the math is AWOL. If you’re lucky, researchers d…

Two possible counter arguments: 1) The people who do the math are too busy read these articles and books. 2) Amazon has 15 phd economists running a single structural model of consumer behavior. They use it to inform feature changes.

2 only amplifies Caplan’s broader point about the importance of corrective feedback mechanisms(from real or prediction markets or anywhere else).

I remember my manager in finance telling me that he would readily use a “mickey-mouse-in-a-box” as a model if it made him money.

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