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No one cared about my spreadsheets

econlib.org

131–140 of 413 posts

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#131
With a grain of salt, as someone who has not read the spreadsheets (and has no interest in doing so).

The author just seems to misunderstand the relativity of ideology. In particular they bemoan their critics as "..go[ing] with their ideology and status-quo bias, using the latest prestigious papers as fig leaves", but they don't acknowledge that their own findings obviously require some major ideological assumptions founded in neoliberalism.

Critics aren't concerned about the correctness of the spreadsheets, because calculating the value of education as ROI requires assuming that all metrics are objectively (and abstractly) quantifiable, which is simply laughable (in my option). Even ignoring the ideological assumptions you have to make to quantify things like self-actualisation and it's impact on quality-of-life, there's an obvious issue here:

How does education affect our political and cultural landscape? Assuming the math is right and reducing education funding improves the national budget while increasing some measure of quality-of-life, then what's the long-term impact?

The democratic process is fundamentally reliant on the quality of information available to voters. Epistemology doesn't come for free, and "common-sense" is rife with biases. We already have widespread problems with low-information voting, so what happens when we stop teaching critical theory because it's not profitable?

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#132
post #114
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not even sure what you are suggesting, to be honest. My point was that if you want scores to improve, you will have to pay more. Pretty much period. You don't get improvement, at any level, for free. Certainly not by cutting funding. Keeping the same level of funding will at best tread water. Likely, the area will fall, though. And I certainly wouldn't be comfortable pushing that outcome.

What I would say to your assertion is this. I am the last person, hired in 2000, that has stayed with our division/site within our company, who enjoys what they do (Oracle DBA). Everyone hired since has been gone within 3 years. We are hiring the wrong people, and I'm starting to quietly state that fact. We need to hire people with an appreciation of computing history, specifically with a desire to learn VMS and OS22…

I'm not sure how this is the same, honestly. I'm assuming most of the folks that left went to more expensive places, but got higher salaries, too? Many probably left to go where they feel they have a better chance at building a family?

Such that, I'm not sure how this works. They should count their luck that they have you happy to be there. But luck only goes so far. Or are my above assertions wrong and you think the people that left made a wrong choice for them?

And my assertion on the cost of education is a bit more nuanced. Specifically, I posit that if you transplanted the teachers from the good schools straight into your school, grades probably would not change. It takes more than just the teachers. Even transplanting the administration would likely not do much. The low performing school doesn't need the same level of skill as the well performing one. It needs better. And more.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#133

In another HN post recently a commenter said something about the stock market, and they invoked an image of people collecting money from Brownian movement. It struck me that comment was excellent and insightful, and was only possible because both the commenter and myself were once taught something that neither of us uses in our day jobs, and may never have learned through any normal self-driven persuit. The more I he…

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Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#134
post #93
post #63

I love the irony in all the comments here criticizing his spreadsheets and arguments by people who have clearly not read the book or looked at the spreadsheets.

I once spent a long time building a pretty detailed pro forma model to raise money for a brick and mortar business in a spreadsheet. It was beautifully formatted, comprehensive, and appeared convincing. I patted myself on the back for training myself as an investment banker in 3 months. I showed it to an i-banker friend that I respected. He barely glanced at the spreadsheet, but offered one thing: "It's not about how…

Your spreadsheets look nice! I think if I was a banker I would be thinking "okay but what if no one shows up and wants to buy". All the spreadsheets say is that you will lose at least $140k (probably more if you didn't include everything or were too optimistic) per month if and until you got some solid sales coming in.

So the bankers are just asking themself if they want you are the type of person worth losing $200k per month over and what's the chance you could make the idea work.

Your "downside" being positive also might be a red flag, if the bankers feel like making money in New York City really is as hard as people say. To a NYCer anyone saying "you will make money no matter what" sounds like a hustler.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#135
post #71
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just possibly, dude, your argument isn't worth anyone else's time to debunk. Wow, that's one of the most dismissive remarks I've seen here in quite a while. It also does not seem like you could possibly believe it yourself. Education is a huge chunk of everyone's life, of course it's important to know the upsides and downsides. The returns are one aspect (I haven't read the book, it honestly sounds depressing, but…

> Wow, that's one of the most dismissive remarks I've seen here in quite a while. It also does not seem like you could possibly believe it yourself. It's a natural thing. If you come up with an implausible sounding thing supported by a very complicated argument then most likely you made a mistake. It is very easy to make mistakes and very hard to find them. If you have a 1000 page proof that 2*2 is 5 I won't spend my…

When there's a real possibility of meaningful and useful insights, we might consider taking it seriously. For me, this can be linked in part to the person's experience and credibility.

Caplan isn't some interloper with no knowledge of any of the material he touches on ranting on Twitter. The man has a career as an economics researcher specializing in public-sector work and actually teaches economics at a reasonably prestigious university (I have heard of George Mason). Perhaps we might pause to consider that he may be, in the realm of his specialty, not a complete fool. In general, his work would seem to be worth engaging with by his peers.

With that in mind, it is a little concerning that so many people are so ready and willing to argue with his claims yet none are interested in engaging with his work or methodology. Perhaps they, as you, are dismissive because he reaches conclusions they find so implausible as to be not worth engaging with. Or perhaps because as he alleges, the field simply does not value quantitative argument beyond its ability to get a paper published.

For my own part, I think it would be educational to know which is the case. If the former, I would like to understand if this is politically motivated (and a lot of things are in economics, especially in a policy context). In the latter, it leads me to question just about every claim from the entire field, including Caplan's.

I'm not equipped to evaluate his data or critique his work. I won't make the attempt. I would hope for better of his peers, though.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> otherwise none of the skills or knowledge are transferable. While I understand the source of this statement and why people often say this, I'm not entirely sure I agree with this, at least anecdotally. For example, I have a degree in Theater. Which, on the surface, doesn't transfer well to, say, software engineering or law or accounting or teaching or social work. But is that really true? To pick a popular theatre-…

I'm wondering how much acting experience you can get without an expensive college degree though? Would amateur productions take a volunteer?

Community theater productions are reasonably common in the US. Many of them are amateur, in the sense of being put on by people who are not paid full-time theatrical professionals.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#137

Just my dumb opinion here, but... there's something extremely implausible on its face about the idea that a sufficiently complex spreadsheet could calculate the difference in value generated from kids going to school versus kids not going to school. If people could be convinced that this was something more than a castle in the sky, maybe it would get more attention. I imagine a bunch of academics put their fingers to…

I was just thinking.

I remember being part of online community for a game (starsector, if you're interested) and a user had taken it upon themselves to create effectiveness measurements for the weapons in the vanilla game and in mods. To do this, they created a spreadsheet that mapped out damage per second, range, energy cost, points to use... ect. Numbered them all together, and ranked them with each other.

Personally, I thought this was a valuable contribution. Plenty of mods go off the deep end with the kit they added to the game, so to me, this seemed like a valuable tool to help keep their kit in line.

But the author? They thought what they had produced was an unassailable statement of fact.

Many people came forward, including me, countering that the actual simulation of the game is substantially more complex than the pile of multiplication and addition they had cobbled together. But like OP's article, those criticisms weren't specifically addressing the formulas themselves, so the author didn't really consider them.

This is a bit of a puerile example of course, I bet Mr. Caplan is substantially better at multiplication than my hobbyist friend trying to categorize weapons in a silly space ship game.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> His book is mostly about the signalling and human capital models of education. The vast majority of post-secondary students say they attend post-secondary education in order to increase their future earnings So what about the partying, making friends for life, and learning to be an adult? What about care-free student life as a carrot to incentivise young adults to go into careers that might not be good for them per…

If Caplan is right it should be a personal choice not subsidized by government

It's entirely possible for Caplan to be correct about his material analysis, and that still not be the right conclusion.

If the government doesn't subsidise education, then anything that doesn't promise a return is financially debilitating. Personal choice can't exist when your ability to eat and pay rent rely upon you making a specific decision.

If you don't believe that humanities education has any kind of broader social value, then that's a whole other argument to make.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#139
post #23

This reminds me of people online who construct gigantic walls of bad faith argument text and insist that it's up to everyone else to "debate them" and spend hours deconstructing their argument. Just possibly, dude, your argument isn't worth anyone else's time to debunk.

For what it's worth, after spending a little bit of time looking at his intro and conclusions, it appears to me that he is actually not arguing in bad faith. His assumption is that the purpose of an education is to raise your future earnings potential, and that the higher your salary is, the better for society you are.

I'm sure his numbers and spreadsheets are correct.

But if you think this is a good argument, a worthwhile argument for educational policy, then JESUS FUCK could you go outside and touch some grass? Please? Go hug someone. Look at the stars. Read a book. Be human. Feel something!

A lot of people choose universities based on which ones have the best parties. Is that even quantifiable? This whole thing seems so ridiculously out of touch with human motivation that what you're saying is correct: It's simply not worth anyone else's time to debunk.

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